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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Firstcash Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:FCFS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FCFS
Name:
FIRSTCASH HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:FCFS)
Sector:
113.12M
Industry:
Credit Services
CEO:
Mr. Rick Wessel
Total Employees:
17,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 42.22% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIRSTCASH HOLDINGS, INC.(FCFS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CREDIT SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
74.86
One Month Price Target:
$75.15
Six Month Price Target :
$76.57
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$78.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$74.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$75.21
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$70.9
This week:
$66.
This month :
$57.15
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.58B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
47.04M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.35%
-15.25%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$93.24
$84.85
$56.48
$64.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$82.11
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$80.32
$67.58
$69.40
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FCFS
Sharpe Ratio:
0.57%
Comparison:
FCFS, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -69.45% lower than the industry
& is -75.08% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FCFS
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.12%
Monthly returns:
0.47%
Yearly returns:
19.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -70.36% below industry average
Classification:
FCFS, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.76
Statistical test of Returns:
FCFS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.59%
Weekly Volatility:
5.79%
Monthly Volatility:
11.57%
Yearly Volatility:
40.08%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.64%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -75.12% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.29%
Weekly VaR:
-11.83%
Monthly VaR:
-23.66%
How Much Can the price of
FCFS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-81.96%
This translates to price declining to:
$59.40
This translates to price declining to:
$13.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FCFS is a 66.98% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 43.05% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -21.59% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FCFS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.68
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.525
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.743
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.419
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.495
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.716
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.09
Beta is -37.60% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.332
Beta is -48.95% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.18%
Sustainable growth rate is -81.68% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.022
Alpha is -131.79% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -137% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FCFS
Equity cost of capital:
0.078
Equity cost of capital is -36.39% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.81%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.68%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.12%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.12%
WACC is -32.77% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$41.48
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2
Annual revenue growth rate is -96.59% below industry average
EPS:
$2.80
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-7.41%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -129.57% lower than the Credit Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.99
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -520.06% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$30.85
EBITDA per share
$7.51
Valuation Analysis Today of
FCFS
P/E Ratio:
19.09
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.88
P/E ratio is 37.51% higher than main peers & is 57.31% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $33.98
FCFS is 120.27% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $31.94
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $18.11
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.8
Price to sales ratio is -65.28% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2
Price to free cash flow: 12.51
Price to free cash flow ratio is 1.30% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-9.76%
Net income growth rate is -160.40% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.20%
Dividend yeild: 1.60%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.20
Expected next dividend best case: $0.31
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.29
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.11%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$0.30
2021-11-12--$0.30
2021-05-13--$0.30
2022-02-17--$0.30
2021-08-12--$0.30
2021-02-11--$0.27
Dividend growth rate is -111.60% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
82.25%
Net debt to equity ratio:
81.05%
Debt to assets ratio:
38.77%
Net debt to assets ratio:
38.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -50.27% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.54
Interest coverage ratio is -13.11% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
76.41%
Annual debt growth is 55% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.22%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.423
Statistical significance of correlation:
FCFS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.561
Stock price is -24.52% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.561
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.042
Kurtosis
6.21
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.07
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FCFS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
205%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.15%
Operating profit margin is -65.10% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
205%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.19%
Effective tax rate is 11.73% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.76%
Return on equity (ROE) is -84.06% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.18%
Return on assets (ROA) is -47.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
2.68
Current ratio is -53.55% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
42.3
Cash conversion cycle is -68.14% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.58%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
114.8K
Each employee generates -84% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
20.8K
Each employee generates -95% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
7.0K
Each employee generates -97% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
6.7K
Each employee generates -89% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
159.1K
Each employee generates -89% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FCFS
CATHAY GENERAL BANCORP (XNAS:CATY)
NAVIENT CORPORATION (XNAS:NAVI)
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:VLYPP)
ENACT HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ACT)
HAMILTON LANE INCORPORATED (XNAS:HLNE)
SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:SFNC)
FOCUS FINANCIAL PARTNERS INC. (XNAS:FOCS)
AGCUU
BULL HORN HOLDINGS UNT (XNAS:BHSEU)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.95B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
974.12M
976.75M
-
117.12M
117.12M
-
661.64M
778.76M
1.21M
41.38M
154.54M
353.16M
197.99M
119.20M
157.24M
38.04M
119.20M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
119.25M
Differed Income Tax :
493.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.08M
Change in Working Capital :
- 114454.00K
Accounts Receivables:
3.75M
Other Working Capital:
- 674.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
83.78M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
120.15M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7028.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
113.32M
-
113.32M
536.60M
247.28M
141.74M
1.04B
774.64M
1.54B
373.93M
-
5.93M
8.32M
2.70B
-
3.74B
237.16M
92.09M
-
57.87M
-
387.13M
1.45B
13.95M
1.59B
-
1.98B
573.00K
880.14M
- 119510.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.75B
1.76B
3.74B
-
1.54B
1.4B
-
7.21M
183.00K
- 80000.00K
-
- 72217.00K
- 14546.00K
38.87M
- 127895.00K
838.00K
- 6729.00K
113.32M
120.05M
120.15M
- 7028.00K
113.12M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FCFS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$70.30
$73.51
$76.87
$80.38
$84.06