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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
First Solar, Inc. (XNAS:FSLR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FSLR
Name:
FIRST SOLAR, INC. (XNAS:FSLR)
Sector:
- 293600.00K
Industry:
Solar
CEO:
Mr. Mark Widmar
Total Employees:
4,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -344.13% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIRST SOLAR, INC.(FSLR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOLAR INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
126.41
One Month Price Target:
$127.39
Six Month Price Target :
$132.26
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$138.12
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$125.91
Price Upper limit ($) :
$127.36
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$117.87
This week:
$107.32
This month :
$88.23
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
13.60B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
106.59M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.29%
-14.72%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$165.97
$147.47
$86.85
$105.35
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$141.45
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$137.50
$111.32
$115.32
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FSLR
Sharpe Ratio:
5.10%
Comparison:
FSLR, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -20.67% lower than the industry
& ratio is 123.83% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FSLR
Daily returns:
0.18%
Weekly returns:
0.91%
Monthly returns:
3.62%
Yearly returns:
78.67%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -44.75% below industry average
Classification:
FSLR, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.2
Statistical test of Returns:
FSLR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.38%
Weekly Volatility:
7.55%
Monthly Volatility:
15.10%
Yearly Volatility:
52.31%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.32%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -31.37% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.75%
Weekly VaR:
-15.10%
Monthly VaR:
-30.20%
How Much Can the price of
FSLR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$95.28
This translates to price declining to:
$18.96
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FSLR is a 113.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 82.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -30.51% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FSLR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.38
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.099
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.554
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.33
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.905
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.58
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.389
Beta is -0.75% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.792
Beta is -23.11% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.94%
Sustainable growth rate is -80.56% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.309
Alpha is -51.18% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1966% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FSLR
Equity cost of capital:
0.126
Equity cost of capital is -18.39% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.15%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.15%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.07%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.07%
WACC is 14.56% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$23.33
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.29
Annual revenue growth rate is -68.15% below industry average
EPS:
$2.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$2.32
EBITDA per share
$4.34
Valuation Analysis Today of
FSLR
P/E Ratio:
71.63
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
47.98
P/E ratio is 49.29% higher than main peers & is -47.52% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $275.69
FSLR is -54.15% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.42
Price to sales ratio is 12.68% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.29
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
219.94%
Net income growth rate is -185.14% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
4.21%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-18.29%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.34%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-14.52%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -94.37% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
35.67
Interest coverage ratio is 522.13% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
147.10%
Annual debt growth is 60% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.30%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.445
Statistical significance of correlation:
FSLR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.47
Stock price is -5.26% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.47
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.027
Kurtosis
2.432
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.077
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FSLR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
79%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.12%
Operating profit margin is 48.37% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
79%
Effective Tax Rate:
14.80%
Effective tax rate is 79.62% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.67%
Return on equity (ROE) is -104.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.92%
Return on assets (ROA) is -55.25% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
4.07
Current ratio is 45.46% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
48.8
Cash conversion cycle is -6.96% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.62%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
518.1K
Each employee generates 20% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
96.4K
Each employee generates 46% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
45.0K
Each employee generates 78% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 61.2K
Each employee generates 115% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
917.5K
Each employee generates 115% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 5.74%
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FSLR
Nuvei Corp (XNAS:NVEI)
DROPBOX, INC. (XNAS:DBX)
FIVE9, INC. (XNAS:FIVN)
dLocal Ltd (XNAS:DLO)
MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES, INC. (XNAS:MANH)
IPG PHOTONICS CORPORATION (XNAS:IPGP)
MKS INSTRUMENTS, INC. (XNAS:MKSI)
Amdocs Limited (XNAS:DOX)
CONCENTRIX CORPORATION (XNAS:CNXC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�25%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.49B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.93B
556.65M
106.35M
-
154.96M
-
17.04M
278.35M
7.55M
12.98M
196.70M
462.92M
276.60M
215.77M
253.25M
37.48M
215.77M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
65.21M
Differed Income Tax :
1.08M
Stock Based Compensation :
3.50M
Change in Working Capital :
- 204362.00K
Accounts Receivables:
144.29M
Other Working Capital:
2.26B
Other Non-Cash Items:
38.99M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 138839.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 154761.00K
Net Acquisitions:
1.86M
Purchases of Investments:
- 750220.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.33B
223.09M
1.55B
322.12M
840.75M
282.67M
2.99B
3.00B
14.46M
42.77M
-
61.79M
1.28B
4.40B
-
7.40B
146.23M
4.70M
4.76M
218.92M
365.13M
734.99M
247.35M
541.71M
789.06M
-
1.52B
107.00K
3.14B
- 129450.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.21B
5.88B
7.40B
-
252.06M
- 1074308.0K
900.17M
12.00K
- 2944.00K
- 737.00K
-
-
-
6.50M
5.76M
15.16M
- 120857.00K
1.33B
1.46B
- 138839.00K
- 154761.00K
- 293600.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FSLR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$146.73
$160.32
$175.17
$191.39
$209.12