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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (XNAS:FMBH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FMBH
Name:
FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FMBH)
Sector:
24.11M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Dively
Total Employees:
1,025
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1293.98% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC.(FMBH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
34.94
One Month Price Target:
$35.1
Six Month Price Target :
$35.92
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$36.9
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$34.8
Price Upper limit ($) :
$35.1
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$33.11
This week:
$30.84
This month :
$26.75
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
690.35M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
20.45M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.53%
-16.87%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.44
$39.55
$26.44
$30.33
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$38.28
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.45
$31.58
$32.43
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FMBH
Sharpe Ratio:
0.94%
Comparison:
FMBH, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -23.47% lower than the industry
& is -58.76% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FMBH
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.66%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -27.43% below industry average
Classification:
FMBH, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.88
Statistical test of Returns:
FMBH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.57%
Weekly Volatility:
5.74%
Monthly Volatility:
11.49%
Yearly Volatility:
39.79%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.12%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -95.37% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.24%
Weekly VaR:
-11.72%
Monthly VaR:
-23.44%
How Much Can the price of
FMBH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-81.21%
This translates to price declining to:
$27.83
This translates to price declining to:
$6.57
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FMBH is a 65.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 41.74% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.09% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FMBH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.83
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.649
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.918
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.644
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.501
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.83
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.418
Beta is 99.47% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -13.46% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.78%
Sustainable growth rate is -36.65% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.009
Alpha is -181.35% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -60% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FMBH
Equity cost of capital:
0.089
Equity cost of capital is -9.11% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.85%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.80%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.59%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.59%
WACC is -24.30% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.01
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.07
Annual revenue growth rate is 8.01% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.47
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-0.12%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -100.96% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.74
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 34.11%
Equity growth rate per share is -11.91% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$12.49
EBITDA per share
$5.56
Valuation Analysis Today of
FMBH
P/E Ratio:
9.54
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.12
P/E ratio is -54.81% lower than main peers & is -23.11% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $43.06
FMBH is -18.85% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $16.57
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.02
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.91
Price to sales ratio is -31.95% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.07
Price to free cash flow: 9.35
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
12.68%
Net income growth rate is -76.97% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.21%
Dividend yeild: 2.52%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.88
Expected next dividend best case: $0.31
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.13
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -5.02%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 16/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 18/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-17--$0.22
2021-11-16--$0.22
2021-05-17--$0.21
2022-02-09--$0.22
2021-08-17--$0.22
2021-02-18--$0.21
Dividend growth rate is -121.31% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
38.35%
Net debt to equity ratio:
5.33%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.85%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.54%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.69% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.66
Interest coverage ratio is 824.44% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-10.93%
Annual debt growth is -3553% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.91%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.494
Statistical significance of correlation:
FMBH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -1.32% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.001
Kurtosis
6.109
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.028
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FMBH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.16%
Effective tax rate is 7.46% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.60%
Return on equity (ROE) is -19.50% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.96%
Return on assets (ROA) is -58.13% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.79%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
239.6K
Each employee generates -37% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
110.9K
Each employee generates -51% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
62.4K
Each employee generates -56% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
23.5K
Each employee generates -72% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.7M
Each employee generates -72% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FMBH
GREAT SOUTHERN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:GSBC)
ALTEROLA BIOTECH INC. (OTCM:ABTI)
SLR INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:SLRC)
NICOLET BANKSHARES, INC. (XNYS:NIC)
HORIZON BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HBNC)
COMMUNITY TRUST BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:CTBI)
Calamos Dyn Cv and Inc (XNAS:CCD)
CBTX, INC. (XNAS:CBTX)
TriState Capital Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:TSC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
245.59M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
61.24M
-
93.46M
97.43M
3.97M
- 21659.00K
679.00K
189.34M
14.83M
15.53M
113.65M
-
64.00M
83.28M
19.28M
64.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.78M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
508.00K
Change in Working Capital :
459.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 725.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 1331.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.77M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
24.13M
Investments in PP&E:
- 27.00K
Net Acquisitions:
67.32M
Purchases of Investments:
- 7806.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
220.03M
1.47B
1.69B
22.37M
-
-
-
104.56M
140.47M
34.03M
1.47B
-
-
1.75B
8.38B
6.63B
2.47M
-
-
-
-
-
255.53M
-
255.53M
6.22B
5.97B
86.26M
246.81M
- 74028.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
666.39M
6.63B
2.94B
255.53M
35.5M
44.85M
- 40469.00K
63.88M
- 25000.00K
406.00K
- 11.00K
- 3973.00K
- 4052.00K
- 32630.00K
-
55.38M
223.98M
168.60M
24.13M
- 27.00K
24.11M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FMBH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$37.08
$52.41
$55.34
$58.45
$61.72