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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
First Internet Bancorp (XNAS:INBK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
INBK
Name:
FIRST INTERNET BANCORP (XNAS:INBK)
Sector:
32.79M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. David Becker
Total Employees:
286
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -180.89% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIRST INTERNET BANCORP(INBK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
35.92
One Month Price Target:
$36.05
Six Month Price Target :
$36.69
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$37.46
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.74
Price Upper limit ($) :
$36.2
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$33.2
This week:
$29.85
This month :
$23.78
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
334.84M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
9.41M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.2%
-19.37%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.51
$42.68
$23.33
$29.16
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$40.78
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.54
$31.04
$32.30
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
INBK
Sharpe Ratio:
3.33%
Comparison:
INBK, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 171.38% higher than the industry
& ratio is 46.26% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
INBK
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.67%
Monthly returns:
2.67%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 194.15% above industry average
Classification:
INBK, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
INBK has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.75%
Weekly Volatility:
8.38%
Monthly Volatility:
16.75%
Yearly Volatility:
58.03%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.01%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -99.68% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.56%
Weekly VaR:
-16.90%
Monthly VaR:
-33.81%
How Much Can the price of
INBK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$25.73
This translates to price declining to:
$5.39
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
INBK is a 138.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 104.42% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 31.13% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
INBK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.64
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.525
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.743
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.067
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.65
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.069
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.965
Beta is -33.74% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -33.64% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.58%
Sustainable growth rate is 37.83% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.246
Alpha is 2017.30% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1564% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
INBK
Equity cost of capital:
0.075
Equity cost of capital is -22.77% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.78%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.01
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-0.09
Annual revenue growth rate is 91.66% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.91
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
24.30%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 102.09% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.19
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 3.63%
Equity growth rate per share is -90.63% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$14.12
Valuation Analysis Today of
INBK
P/E Ratio:
7.84
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.41
P/E ratio is -75.82% lower than main peers & is -36.85% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $60.93
INBK is -41.04% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $34.54
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.19
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.76
Price to sales ratio is -35.46% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-0.09
Price to free cash flow: 11.24
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
110.23%
Net income growth rate is 100.15% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.94%
Dividend yeild: 0.67%
Previous Dividend: $0.06
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.06
Previous Dividend: $0.24
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.06
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-30--$0.06
2021-12-30--$0.06
2021-06-30--$0.06
2022-03-30--$0.06
2021-09-29--$0.06
2021-03-30--$0.06
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1007.17%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-236482.53%
Debt to assets ratio:
90.97%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-236482.53%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -45.36% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.96
Interest coverage ratio is 257.41% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.14%
Annual debt growth is 1208% higher than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.421
Statistical significance of correlation:
INBK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -15.92% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.048
Kurtosis
5.879
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.452
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
INBK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
46.21%
Operating profit margin is 29.02% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
14.65%
Effective tax rate is -32.00% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
714926.72%
Return on equity (ROE) is 5992808.30% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
714926.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is 31022266.22% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
11.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.01%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
428.1K
Each employee generates 13% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
464.6K
Each employee generates 106% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
221.7K
Each employee generates 57% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
114.6K
Each employee generates 38% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
16.4K
Each employee generates 38% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
INBK
MAIDEN HOLDINGS, LTD. (XNAS:MHLD)
TASTEMAKER ACQUISITION CORP. (XNAS:TMKR)
HOME BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HBCP)
New Vista Acquisition Corp (XNAS:NVSA)
VECTOIQ ACQUISITION CORP. II (XNAS:VTIQ)
Powered Brands (XNAS:POW)
ATAC Rotation Fund;Institutional
ALPHA TAU MEDICAL LTD (XNAS:DRTS)
VSPRU
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
122.43M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
36.03M
-
32.63M
35.97M
3.34M
-
2.68M
136.64M
44.86M
16.21M
132.87M
56.57M
63.41M
57.26M
8.39M
63.41M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.72M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
640.00K
Change in Working Capital :
13.22M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
32.79M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 16453.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
20.98M
0.47K
20.98M
15.26M
-
- 0.47K
36.24M
0.07K
4.69M
-
-
-
- 0.07K
4.69M
3.65K
8.87K
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.85B
3.85B
214.47M
183.04M
- 22861.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
8.87K
3.85B
-
-
- 20976.0K
27.85M
- 2898.00K
8.50M
-
-
- 5118.00K
- 596.00K
39.02M
33.31M
-
74.59M
517.55M
442.96M
32.79M
-
32.79M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
INBK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$37.65
$88.46
$92.26
$96.22
$100.36