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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (XNYS:FR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FR
Name:
FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:FR)
Sector:
59.90M
Industry:
REIT�Industrial
CEO:
Mr. Peter Baccile
Total Employees:
162
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 11.32% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST, INC.(FR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
49.9
One Month Price Target:
$50.17
Six Month Price Target :
$51.52
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$53.15
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$49.75
Price Upper limit ($) :
$50.1
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$47.84
This week:
$45.29
This month :
$40.68
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.74B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
132.07M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.34%
-18.07%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$59.47
$55.06
$40.33
$44.74
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$53.63
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$52.69
$46.16
$47.11
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FR
Sharpe Ratio:
1.94%
Comparison:
FR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -20.03% lower than the industry
& is -15.05% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FR
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.24%
Monthly returns:
0.97%
Yearly returns:
14.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -17.64% below industry average
Classification:
FR, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.7
Statistical test of Returns:
FR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.04%
Weekly Volatility:
4.55%
Monthly Volatility:
9.10%
Yearly Volatility:
31.54%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.90%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.77% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.13%
Weekly VaR:
-9.24%
Monthly VaR:
-18.48%
How Much Can the price of
FR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-64.02%
This translates to price declining to:
$42.02
This translates to price declining to:
$17.95
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FR is a 30.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 11.75% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.49% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.97
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.742
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.05
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.541
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.757
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.844
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.87
Beta is 11.30% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.735
Beta is 31.78% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.55%
Sustainable growth rate is 26.84% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.018
Alpha is -69.42% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 114% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FR
Equity cost of capital:
0.098
Equity cost of capital is 19.55% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.46%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.30%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.81%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.81%
WACC is 18.56% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.68
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.9
Annual revenue growth rate is -21.86% below industry average
EPS:
$1.88
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
3.41%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -61.87% lower than the REIT�Industrial industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.12
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 21.63%
Equity growth rate per share is 76.01% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$13.54
EBITDA per share
$3.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
FR
P/E Ratio:
21.16
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.03
P/E ratio is 17.35% higher than main peers & is -68.57% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $126.56
FR is -60.57% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $30.30
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $16.13
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
13.57
Price to sales ratio is 1.36% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.9
Price to free cash flow: 23.54
Price to free cash flow ratio is -3.92% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
58.48%
Net income growth rate is 212.28% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 14.77%
Dividend yeild: 2.26%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.13
Expected next dividend best case: $0.31
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.26
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.60%
Expected next dividend payment date: 17/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 18/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.30
2021-12-30--$0.27
2021-06-29--$0.27
2022-03-30--$0.30
2021-09-29--$0.27
2021-03-30--$0.27
Dividend growth rate is -128.28% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
80.75%
Net debt to equity ratio:
78.75%
Debt to assets ratio:
40.83%
Net debt to assets ratio:
39.82%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -75.76% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.53
Interest coverage ratio is -21027.08% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.94%
Annual debt growth is -91% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.71%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.775
Statistical significance of correlation:
FR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.617
Stock price is 25.65% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.617
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.033
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.039
Kurtosis
14.304
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.144
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
290%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
37.98%
Operating profit margin is 18.14% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
290%
Effective Tax Rate:
1.93%
Effective tax rate is 275.11% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.07%
Return on equity (ROE) is 33.25% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.60%
Return on assets (ROA) is 44.23% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.57
Current ratio is -46.02% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
3.9
Cash conversion cycle is -78.53% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
3.0M
Each employee generates 82% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
2.7M
Each employee generates 90% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates 124% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
369.7K
Each employee generates 92% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
25.0M
Each employee generates 92% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FR
STAG INDUSTRIAL, INC. (XNYS:STAG)
AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:COLD)
KILROY REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KRC)
KIM-PL
Apartment Income REIT Corp. (XNYS:AIRC)
AMH-PE
BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP INC. (XNYS:BRX)
NATIONAL RETAIL PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:NNN)
KIM-PM
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
485.54M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
133.47M
352.07M
-
34.79M
34.79M
-
132.89M
167.68M
-
41.07M
141.31M
432.37M
184.40M
245.06M
255.77M
4.94M
245.06M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
36.49M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 10245.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 8692.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3469.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
59.90M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 1383.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
44.46M
-
44.46M
109.30M
-
176.21M
329.97M
24.62M
-
-
37.37M
-
3.99B
4.05B
-
4.38B
170.02M
-
-
-
40.30M
210.32M
1.79B
9.50M
1.90B
-
2.11B
1.32M
- 182527.00K
6.7M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
301.15M
2.21B
4.32B
-
1.79B
1.7B
-
- 201637.00K
- 203020.00K
- 12784.00K
12.82M
-
- 36206.00K
165.15M
128.99M
-
- 14135.00K
44.65M
58.78M
59.90M
-
59.90M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$52.26
$55.67
$59.29
$63.15
$67.26