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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
First Hawaiian, Inc. (XNAS:FHB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FHB
Name:
FIRST HAWAIIAN, INC. (XNAS:FHB)
Sector:
63.57M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Robert Harrison
Total Employees:
2,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -143.93% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIRST HAWAIIAN, INC.(FHB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
25.31
One Month Price Target:
$25.47
Six Month Price Target :
$26.25
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$27.2
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$25.19
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.44
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.85
This week:
$22.04
This month :
$18.77
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.20B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
127.70M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
24.74%
-11.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.10
$29.00
$18.52
$21.62
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$27.99
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$27.33
$22.62
$23.29
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FHB
Sharpe Ratio:
0.45%
Comparison:
FHB, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -63.39% lower than the industry
& is -80.27% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FHB
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.11%
Monthly returns:
0.43%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -52.60% below industry average
Classification:
FHB, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.2
Statistical test of Returns:
FHB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.82%
Weekly Volatility:
6.32%
Monthly Volatility:
12.63%
Yearly Volatility:
43.76%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.71%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.81% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.78%
Weekly VaR:
-12.92%
Monthly VaR:
-25.85%
How Much Can the price of
FHB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-89.54%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.59
This translates to price declining to:
$2.65
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FHB is a 82.43% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 56.29% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.12% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FHB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.11
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.746
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.055
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.15
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.606
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.718
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.954
Beta is 16.46% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 15.26% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.92%
Sustainable growth rate is -46.07% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.056
Alpha is -581.45% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -356% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FHB
Equity cost of capital:
0.108
Equity cost of capital is 10.33% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.45%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.41
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.41
Annual revenue growth rate is -91.26% below industry average
EPS:
$2.06
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-1.42%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -111.83% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.41
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 9.61%
Equity growth rate per share is -75.19% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$3.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
FHB
P/E Ratio:
13.64
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.06
P/E ratio is -2.96% lower than main peers & is 9.93% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $25.56
FHB is -0.99% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $21.07
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.67
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.68
Price to sales ratio is 9.46% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.41
Price to free cash flow: 10.49
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
7.62%
Net income growth rate is -86.16% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.47%
Dividend yeild: 4.11%
Previous Dividend: $0.26
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.26
Previous Dividend: $1.04
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.26
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 22/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 19/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/03/2022
Previous dividend record date: 23/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 20/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-20--$0.26
2021-11-19--$0.26
2021-05-21--$0.26
2022-02-17--$0.26
2021-08-20--$0.26
2021-02-19--$0.26
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
840.66%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-71.16%
Debt to assets ratio:
89.37%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-6.49%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.32% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
26.06
Interest coverage ratio is 3044.07% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is -31676% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.554
Statistical significance of correlation:
FHB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 10.74% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.052
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.085
Kurtosis
10.449
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.134
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FHB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
23.90%
Effective tax rate is 10.92% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.63%
Return on equity (ROE) is -2.51% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.06%
Return on assets (ROA) is -53.95% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
9.4x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.18%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
345.2K
Each employee generates -9% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
209.5K
Each employee generates -7% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
132.9K
Each employee generates -6% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
31.8K
Each employee generates -62% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.7M
Each employee generates -62% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FHB
LIVE OAK BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:LOB)
WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:WTFCM)
SLM CORPORATION (XNAS:SLMBP)
EASTERN BANKSHARES, INC. (XNAS:EBC)
UNITED COMMUNITY BANKS, INC. (XNAS:UCBI)
ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED (XNAS:ESGRO)
ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED (XNAS:ESGRP)
AMERIS BANCORP (XNAS:ABCB)
INDEPENDENT BANK CORP. (XNAS:INDB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
690.41M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
195.11M
201.65M
6.55M
-
-
551.36M
16.08M
53.78M
419.10M
-
265.76M
349.23M
83.47M
265.76M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
15.58M
Differed Income Tax :
15.06M
Stock Based Compensation :
3.14M
Change in Working Capital :
- 20679.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 4553.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
66.26M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 566766.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.63B
-
1.63B
284.73M
-
-
-
315.77M
995.49M
7.65M
8.06B
-
-
9.38B
34.42B
25.04B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
22.76B
22.76B
1.41M
628.64M
- 517502.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
2.29B
25.04B
-
-
- 1626160.0K
386.95M
63.31M
- 116507.00K
-
-
-
- 33151.00K
451.09M
417.94M
-
367.69M
1.63B
1.26B
66.26M
- 2695.00K
63.57M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FHB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$31.06
$33.38
$35.87
$38.55
$41.42