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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
First Foundation Inc. (XNAS:FFWM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FFWM
Name:
FIRST FOUNDATION INC. (XNAS:FFWM)
Sector:
39.12M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Scott Kavanaugh
Total Employees:
674
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 3529.82% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIRST FOUNDATION INC.(FFWM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
18.86
One Month Price Target:
$18.98
Six Month Price Target :
$19.6
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$20.34
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$18.78
Price Upper limit ($) :
$18.96
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$17.78
This week:
$16.44
This month :
$14.03
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.06B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
56.39M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.23%
-16.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.87
$21.57
$13.85
$16.15
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$20.82
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.33
$16.89
$17.39
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FFWM
Sharpe Ratio:
1.77%
Comparison:
FFWM, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 44.00% higher than the industry
& is -22.39% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FFWM
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.29%
Monthly returns:
1.17%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 29.15% above industry average
Classification:
FFWM, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.79
Statistical test of Returns:
FFWM has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.82%
Weekly Volatility:
6.30%
Monthly Volatility:
12.61%
Yearly Volatility:
43.67%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.96%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -65.83% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.73%
Weekly VaR:
-12.81%
Monthly VaR:
-25.63%
How Much Can the price of
FFWM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-88.78%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.71
This translates to price declining to:
$2.12
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FFWM is a 80.88% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 54.96% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.32% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FFWM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.17
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.98
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.386
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.96
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.599
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.959
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.187
Beta is -1.54% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 21.30% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.28%
Sustainable growth rate is 23.56% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.029
Alpha is 152.96% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 187% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FFWM
Equity cost of capital:
0.112
Equity cost of capital is 14.42% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.17%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.20%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.31%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.31%
WACC is -5.01% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.65
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.98
Annual revenue growth rate is 93.11% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.46
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
24.13%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 100.72% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.75
-
-
Debt per share
$5.78
EBITDA per share
$3.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
FFWM
P/E Ratio:
7.63
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
23.28
P/E ratio is -67.21% lower than main peers & is -38.49% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $30.53
FFWM is -38.22% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $111.96
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $21.01
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.34
Price to sales ratio is -21.98% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.98
Price to free cash flow: 10.76
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
139.41%
Net income growth rate is 153.15% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.26%
Dividend yeild: 2.12%
Previous Dividend: $0.11
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.11
Previous Dividend: $0.40
Expected next dividend best case: $0.13
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.09
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 9.08%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/04/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-05--$0.11
2021-11-04--$0.09
2021-05-06--$0.09
2022-02-09--$0.11
2021-08-06--$0.09
2021-02-04--$0.09
Dividend growth rate is -61.45% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
30.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-55.95%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.11%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.78%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.13% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.49
Interest coverage ratio is 1527.24% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-21.89%
Annual debt growth is -7011% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.34%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.526
Statistical significance of correlation:
FFWM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 4.99% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.005
Kurtosis
6.809
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.057
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FFWM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.31%
Operating profit margin is -68.42% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
27.88%
Effective tax rate is 29.41% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.90%
Return on equity (ROE) is -8.64% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.13%
Return on assets (ROA) is -51.12% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.02%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
472.9K
Each employee generates 25% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
273.6K
Each employee generates 21% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
175.1K
Each employee generates 24% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
58.0K
Each employee generates -30% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.1M
Each employee generates -30% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FFWM
LANDCADIA HOLDINGS IV UNT (XNAS:LCAHU)
COWEN INC. (XNAS:COWN)
Calamos Conv Opp Inc (XNAS:CHI)
CONNECTONE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:CNOB)
METROMILE, INC. (XNAS:MILE)
WISDOMTREE INVESTMENTS, INC. (XNAS:WETF)
GERMAN AMERICAN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:GABC)
ORIGIN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:OBNK)
EBSB
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
318.73M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
73.65M
-
96.20M
99.70M
3.50M
- 22938.00K
3.50M
267.22M
13.68M
7.14M
184.43M
-
117.99M
163.61M
45.62M
117.99M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.03M
Differed Income Tax :
3.43M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.20M
Change in Working Capital :
4.18M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1344.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
40.34M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1222.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 83408.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
931.71M
258.29M
1.19B
-
-
-
-
35.90M
-
-
1.18B
-
-
1.44B
11.91B
10.47B
108.73M
-
-
-
-
-
325.97M
-
325.97M
9.72B
9.39B
57.00K
365.60M
- 3932.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.08B
10.47B
1.44B
325.97M
- 605741.0K
87.63M
- 486361.00K
- 483366.00K
- 1111.00K
-
- 1120.00K
- 6208.00K
261.42M
252.98M
-
- 190047.00K
931.71M
1.12B
40.34M
- 1222.00K
39.12M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FFWM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$20.44
$39.17
$42.24
$45.56
$49.14