_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
First Financial Corporation (XNAS:THFF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
THFF
Name:
FIRST FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:THFF)
Sector:
18.90M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Norman Lowery
Total Employees:
883
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1597.42% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIRST FINANCIAL CORPORATION(THFF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
46.06
One Month Price Target:
$46.22
Six Month Price Target :
$47.01
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$47.96
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$45.9
Price Upper limit ($) :
$46.25
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$43.94
This week:
$41.33
This month :
$36.6
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
549.94M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
12.03M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.35%
-16.76%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$55.88
$51.38
$36.24
$40.74
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$49.92
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.96
$42.19
$43.16
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
THFF
Sharpe Ratio:
0.95%
Comparison:
THFF, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -22.59% lower than the industry
& is -58.28% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
THFF
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.15%
Monthly returns:
0.61%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -33.46% below industry average
Classification:
THFF, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.45
Statistical test of Returns:
THFF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.25%
Weekly Volatility:
5.03%
Monthly Volatility:
10.07%
Yearly Volatility:
34.87%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.06%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -97.23% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.59%
Weekly VaR:
-10.27%
Monthly VaR:
-20.54%
How Much Can the price of
THFF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-71.14%
This translates to price declining to:
$37.85
This translates to price declining to:
$13.29
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
THFF is a 44.95% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 24.18% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -21.21% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
THFF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.62
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.593
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.838
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.601
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.472
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.833
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.113
Beta is -44.73% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -36.17% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.97%
Sustainable growth rate is -1.78% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.001
Alpha is -108.87% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -7% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
THFF
Equity cost of capital:
0.074
Equity cost of capital is -24.49% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.19%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.28%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.75%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.75%
WACC is -36.22% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.03
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.05
Annual revenue growth rate is -76.07% below industry average
EPS:
$4.72
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.89%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -84.25% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.75
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 1.40%
Equity growth rate per share is -96.37% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$1.32
EBITDA per share
$7.72
Valuation Analysis Today of
THFF
P/E Ratio:
9.68
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.23
P/E ratio is -31.96% lower than main peers & is -21.99% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $58.57
THFF is -21.36% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $57.80
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $37.26
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.87
Price to sales ratio is -32.80% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.05
Price to free cash flow: 9.69
Price to free cash flow ratio is -56.89% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
1.64%
Net income growth rate is -97.02% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.03%
Dividend yeild: 4.84%
Previous Dividend: $0.54
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.54
Previous Dividend: $2.23
Expected next dividend best case: $0.60
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.48
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.55
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.30%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.54
2021-06-16--$0.53
2020-06-12--$0.52
2022-01-06--$0.63
2021-01-07--$0.53
2020-01-07--$0.52
Dividend growth rate is -94.48% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-92.41%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.31%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-9.52%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.81% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.33
Interest coverage ratio is 1266.68% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-14.41%
Annual debt growth is -4651% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.14%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.511
Statistical significance of correlation:
THFF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 2.06% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.035
Kurtosis
12.294
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.177
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
THFF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.69%
Operating profit margin is -75.74% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.96%
Effective tax rate is -7.38% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.62%
Return on equity (ROE) is -2.63% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.20%
Return on assets (ROA) is -48.06% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.34%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
218.4K
Each employee generates -42% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
105.1K
Each employee generates -53% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
69.1K
Each employee generates -51% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
21.4K
Each employee generates -74% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.7M
Each employee generates -74% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
THFF
LUTHER BURBANK CORPORATION (XNAS:LBC)
OPORTUN FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:OPRT)
ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION (XNAS:ZIONP)
CF Acquisition Corp IV (XNAS:CFIV)
PEAPACK-GLADSTONE FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:PGC)
NEWTEK BUSINESS SERVICES CORP. (XNAS:NEWT)
Khosla Ventures Acquisition Co III (XNAS:KVSC)
MONEYGRAM INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:MGI)
RMG ACQUISITION CORP. III (XNAS:RMGC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
192.83M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
47.60M
-
67.56M
67.56M
-
-
-
154.50M
8.20M
8.39M
92.84M
-
61.03M
76.25M
15.22M
61.03M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.53M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
207.00K
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2115.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
20.55M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1641.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 138610.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
598.18M
1.36B
1.96B
15.63M
-
-
-
69.98M
86.14M
7.68M
1.36B
-
-
1.52B
6.62B
5.10B
-
96.67M
-
-
-
96.67M
15.92M
-
15.92M
4.49B
4.57B
2.01M
580.06M
- 71025.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
525.44M
5.10B
2.72B
112.60M
- 485579.0K
51.99M
11.48M
- 76782.00K
- 22.00K
-
- 9664.00K
- 7952.00K
- 10757.00K
- 28395.00K
-
- 84632.00K
598.18M
682.81M
20.55M
- 1641.00K
18.90M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
THFF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$58.72
$61.15
$63.67
$66.31
$69.05