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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
First Financial Bancorp. (XNAS:FFBC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FFBC
Name:
FIRST FINANCIAL BANCORP. (XNAS:FFBC)
Sector:
140.63M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Archie Brown
Total Employees:
2,010
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -448.31% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIRST FINANCIAL BANCORP.(FFBC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
21.43
One Month Price Target:
$21.56
Six Month Price Target :
$22.19
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$22.94
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$21.32
Price Upper limit ($) :
$21.55
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$20.05
This week:
$18.34
This month :
$15.25
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.00B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
94.87M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.49%
-19.71%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$27.84
$24.91
$15.02
$17.95
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$23.96
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.34
$18.89
$19.52
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FFBC
Sharpe Ratio:
0.65%
Comparison:
FFBC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -47.38% lower than the industry
& is -71.64% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FFBC
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.15%
Monthly returns:
0.58%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -35.69% below industry average
Classification:
FFBC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.85
Statistical test of Returns:
FFBC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.15%
Weekly Volatility:
7.05%
Monthly Volatility:
14.10%
Yearly Volatility:
48.86%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.81%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.43% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.45%
Weekly VaR:
-14.42%
Monthly VaR:
-28.84%
How Much Can the price of
FFBC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$16.04
This translates to price declining to:
$3.21
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FFBC is a 103.52% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 74.35% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 10.40% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FFBC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.688
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.973
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.913
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.601
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.926
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.016
Beta is 3.47% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 9.14% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.31%
Sustainable growth rate is -41.88% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.033
Alpha is -387.68% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -212% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FFBC
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is 6.19% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.99%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.28%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.17%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.17%
WACC is -11.77% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.95
Annual revenue growth rate is -90.97% below industry average
EPS:
$2.10
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
2.11%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -82.44% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.90
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -0.27%
Equity growth rate per share is -100.70% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$4.00
EBITDA per share
$3.12
Valuation Analysis Today of
FFBC
P/E Ratio:
10.16
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.43
P/E ratio is -18.33% lower than main peers & is -18.16% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $26.06
FFBC is -17.76% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $20.80
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $8.89
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.29
Price to sales ratio is -22.96% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.95
Price to free cash flow: 5.49
Price to free cash flow ratio is -75.99% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
8.15%
Net income growth rate is -85.21% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 11.04%
Dividend yeild: 4.29%
Previous Dividend: $0.23
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.23
Previous Dividend: $0.92
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.23
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.23
2021-11-30--$0.23
2021-05-28--$0.23
2022-02-28--$0.23
2021-08-31--$0.23
2021-02-26--$0.23
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
17.77%
Net debt to equity ratio:
5.02%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.37%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.67%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.57% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.91
Interest coverage ratio is 1095.38% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
91.91%
Annual debt growth is 28921% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 7.36%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.497
Statistical significance of correlation:
FFBC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -0.79% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.051
Kurtosis
7.275
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.014
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FFBC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
14.85%
Effective tax rate is -31.08% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.32%
Return on equity (ROE) is -21.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is -46.02% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.76%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
307.0K
Each employee generates -19% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
147.1K
Each employee generates -35% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
99.1K
Each employee generates -30% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
70.0K
Each employee generates -16% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.8M
Each employee generates -16% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FFBC
SRNG
FIRST MERCHANTS CORPORATION (XNAS:FRME)
FIRST MIDWEST BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:FMBI)
BANCFIRST CORPORATION (XNAS:BANF)
OPEN LENDING CORPORATION (XNAS:LPRO)
WESBANCO, INC. (XNAS:WSBC)
WASHINGTON FEDERAL, INC. (XNAS:WAFD)
B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:RILY)
GOLUB CAPITAL BDC, INC. (XNAS:GBDC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
617.07M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
289.46M
297.78M
8.32M
-
-
474.44M
29.85M
32.01M
295.74M
-
199.15M
233.88M
34.73M
199.15M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
8.11M
Differed Income Tax :
334.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.51M
Change in Working Capital :
80.40M
Accounts Receivables:
1.85M
Other Working Capital:
- 652.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
10.16M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
143.82M
Investments in PP&E:
- 3181.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 185753.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
457.58M
3.96B
4.42B
1.02B
-
-
-
278.41M
1.00B
85.89M
4.17B
-
-
5.53B
21.54B
16.01B
487.96M
185.00M
-
-
-
672.96M
379.84M
-
379.84M
13.58B
13.87B
1.63B
857.18M
- 142477.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
2.14B
16.01B
8.12B
564.84M
107.3M
243.18M
28.57M
82.82M
- 30183.00K
-
-
- 21986.00K
- 164072.00K
- 216241.00K
-
10.40M
230.43M
220.03M
143.82M
- 3181.00K
140.63M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FFBC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$26.45
$28.32
$30.32
$32.46
$34.76