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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
First Busey Corporation (XNAS:BUSE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BUSE
Name:
FIRST BUSEY CORPORATION (XNAS:BUSE)
Sector:
41.77M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Van Dukeman
Total Employees:
1,463
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -428.88% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIRST BUSEY CORPORATION(BUSE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
22.92
One Month Price Target:
$23.03
Six Month Price Target :
$23.6
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$24.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.03
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.63
This week:
$20.03
This month :
$17.13
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.25B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
55.22M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.32%
-18.32%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.93
$26.19
$16.91
$19.65
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$25.30
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.71
$20.54
$21.13
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BUSE
Sharpe Ratio:
0.27%
Comparison:
BUSE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -78.03% lower than the industry
& is -88.16% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BUSE
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.08%
Monthly returns:
0.33%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -64.17% below industry average
Classification:
BUSE, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.55
Statistical test of Returns:
BUSE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.76%
Weekly Volatility:
6.16%
Monthly Volatility:
12.33%
Yearly Volatility:
42.70%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.52%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -81.13% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.64%
Weekly VaR:
-12.62%
Monthly VaR:
-25.24%
How Much Can the price of
BUSE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-87.44%
This translates to price declining to:
$17.85
This translates to price declining to:
$2.88
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BUSE is a 78.16% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 52.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.51% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BUSE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.88
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.698
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.988
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.719
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.537
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.866
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.854
Beta is 3.12% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -8.61% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.49%
Sustainable growth rate is -39.90% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.053
Alpha is -554.53% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -336% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BUSE
Equity cost of capital:
0.092
Equity cost of capital is -5.83% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.49%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.33%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.79%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.79%
WACC is -20.93% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.48
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.04
Annual revenue growth rate is -68.64% below industry average
EPS:
$2.03
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.38%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -55.26% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.74
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 16.79%
Equity growth rate per share is -56.63% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$6.28
EBITDA per share
$3.60
Valuation Analysis Today of
BUSE
P/E Ratio:
11.32
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.53
P/E ratio is 18.81% higher than main peers & is -8.77% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $25.19
BUSE is -9.01% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $25.06
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.25
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.06
Price to sales ratio is -28.34% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.04
Price to free cash flow: 8.38
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
12.00%
Net income growth rate is -78.22% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 11.17%
Dividend yeild: 4.01%
Previous Dividend: $0.23
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.23
Previous Dividend: $0.92
Expected next dividend best case: $0.24
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.22
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.22
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.93%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 21/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 07/11/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 22/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 04/12/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-21--$0.23
2021-10-21--$0.23
2021-04-22--$0.23
2022-01-20--$0.23
2021-07-22--$0.23
2021-01-21--$0.23
Dividend growth rate is -96.05% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
28.45%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-9.44%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.76%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.92%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.34% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.44
Interest coverage ratio is 797.89% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
18.67%
Annual debt growth is 5795% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.91%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.496
Statistical significance of correlation:
BUSE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -0.85% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.033
Kurtosis
7.7
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.04
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BUSE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
20.72%
Effective tax rate is -3.82% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.37%
Return on equity (ROE) is -21.49% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.91%
Return on assets (ROA) is -60.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.67%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
282.3K
Each employee generates -26% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
135.8K
Each employee generates -40% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
78.0K
Each employee generates -45% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
28.6K
Each employee generates -66% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.0M
Each employee generates -66% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BUSE
THE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:TBBK)
TRICO BANCSHARES (XNAS:TCBK)
SOUTHSIDE BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:SBSI)
S & T BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:STBA)
ENCORE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ECPG)
BROOKLINE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:BRKL)
OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:OCFC)
LEXINFINTECH HOLDINGS LTD. (XNAS:LX)
FIRST BANCORP (XNAS:FBNC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
412.99M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
176.84M
176.84M
-
-
-
302.56M
26.70M
28.10M
198.69M
-
114.07M
143.89M
29.82M
114.07M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.75M
Differed Income Tax :
1.18M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.91M
Change in Working Capital :
- 18637.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 885.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
22.86M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
42.51M
Investments in PP&E:
- 734.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 280912.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
479.23M
2.95B
3.43B
-
-
-
-
142.67M
317.87M
55.04M
3.94B
-
-
4.46B
17.02B
12.57B
-
17.68M
-
-
-
17.68M
346.51M
-
346.51M
11.68B
11.35B
58.00K
107.89M
- 137605.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.22B
12.57B
6.89B
364.20M
- 115031.0K
176.29M
- 81635.00K
- 186987.00K
- 3168.00K
-
- 5220.00K
- 12739.00K
- 191258.00K
- 212385.00K
-
- 356867.00K
479.23M
836.10M
42.51M
- 734.00K
41.77M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BUSE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$26.32
$27.88
$29.53
$31.28
$33.13