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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
First Bancorp (XNAS:FBNC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FBNC
Name:
FIRST BANCORP (XNAS:FBNC)
Sector:
98.93M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Michael Mayer
Total Employees:
1,179
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -380.74% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIRST BANCORP(FBNC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
36.13
One Month Price Target:
$36.36
Six Month Price Target :
$37.52
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$38.9
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.95
Price Upper limit ($) :
$36.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$33.88
This week:
$31.1
This month :
$26.07
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.27B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
35.68M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.6%
-22.94%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.57
$41.80
$25.69
$30.46
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$40.25
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.23
$32.00
$33.03
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FBNC
Sharpe Ratio:
0.78%
Comparison:
FBNC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -36.11% lower than the industry
& is -65.57% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FBNC
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.66%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -27.92% below industry average
Classification:
FBNC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.92
Statistical test of Returns:
FBNC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.05%
Weekly Volatility:
6.82%
Monthly Volatility:
13.63%
Yearly Volatility:
47.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.62%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -79.73% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.23%
Weekly VaR:
-13.92%
Monthly VaR:
-27.85%
How Much Can the price of
FBNC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$27.37
This translates to price declining to:
$5.42
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FBNC is a 96.56% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 68.39% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.70% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FBNC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.14
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.806
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.139
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.127
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.517
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.804
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.749
Beta is 52.48% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 18.57% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.81%
Sustainable growth rate is -25.37% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.031
Alpha is -368.19% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -198% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FBNC
Equity cost of capital:
0.110
Equity cost of capital is 12.57% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.83%
Before-tax cost of debt:
46.68%
After-tax cost of debt:
36.88%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
36.88%
WACC is -4.05% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.39
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.15
Annual revenue growth rate is -106.44% below industry average
EPS:
$3.25
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.86%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -92.89% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.86
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 63.51%
Equity growth rate per share is 64.01% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.54
EBITDA per share
$4.26
Valuation Analysis Today of
FBNC
P/E Ratio:
11.15
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.03
P/E ratio is -7.26% lower than main peers & is -10.11% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $40.33
FBNC is -10.41% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $22.99
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.67
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.85
Price to sales ratio is -10.01% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.15
Price to free cash flow: 6.17
Price to free cash flow ratio is -42.89% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-11.11%
Net income growth rate is -120.17% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.02%
Dividend yeild: 2.32%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.84
Expected next dividend best case: $0.23
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.19
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.11%
Expected next dividend payment date: 24/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.22
2021-12-30--$0.20
2021-06-29--$0.20
2022-03-30--$0.22
2021-09-29--$0.20
2021-03-30--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is -91.04% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.72%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-48.91%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.13%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.89% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.91
Interest coverage ratio is 1939.82% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
11.14%
Annual debt growth is 3419% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.17%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.446
Statistical significance of correlation:
FBNC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -10.83% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.032
Kurtosis
7.511
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.023
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FBNC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
20.23%
Effective tax rate is -6.11% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.08%
Return on equity (ROE) is -23.92% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.95%
Return on assets (ROA) is -58.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.54%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
284.1K
Each employee generates -25% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
128.8K
Each employee generates -43% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
86.0K
Each employee generates -39% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
83.9K
Each employee generates 1% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.2M
Each employee generates 1% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FBNC
SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SAFT)
MERCHANTS BANCORP (XNAS:MBIN)
StepStone Group Inc (XNAS:STEP)
BPFH
BROOKLINE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:BRKL)
CITY HOLDING COMPANY (XNAS:CHCO)
AMERISAFE, INC (XNAS:AMSF)
ENCORE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ECPG)
S & T BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:STBA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
334.98M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
107.58M
107.58M
-
-
-
277.02M
8.98M
15.75M
151.87M
-
101.42M
127.14M
25.72M
101.42M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.08M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
547.00K
Change in Working Capital :
2.99M
Accounts Receivables:
1.17M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
59.56M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
100.14M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1217.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 366236.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
565.76M
2.69B
3.25B
24.73M
-
-
-
155.86M
364.26M
16.93M
3.23B
-
-
3.77B
14.42B
10.65B
576.00K
-
-
-
-
-
19.24M
-
19.24M
9.55B
9.53B
723.44M
559.00M
- 164955.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.12B
10.65B
5.92B
19.24M
- 546517.0K
94.11M
24.32M
- 249025.00K
- 33.00K
-
-
- 7123.00K
260.64M
253.48M
-
104.60M
565.76M
461.16M
100.14M
- 1217.00K
98.93M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FBNC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$43.31
$46.63
$50.21
$54.07
$58.22