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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Financial Institutions, Inc. (XNAS:FISI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FISI
Name:
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:FISI)
Sector:
44.19M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Martin Birmingham
Total Employees:
625
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 114.23% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, INC.(FISI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
25.71
One Month Price Target:
$25.85
Six Month Price Target :
$26.56
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$27.41
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$25.57
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.86
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.99
This week:
$21.87
This month :
$18.04
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
387.49M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
15.33M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.45%
-22.39%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.67
$30.04
$17.75
$21.38
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$28.86
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.09
$22.55
$23.33
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FISI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.34%
Comparison:
FISI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -72.22% lower than the industry
& is -85.03% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FISI
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.40%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -56.08% below industry average
Classification:
FISI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.71
Statistical test of Returns:
FISI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.26%
Weekly Volatility:
7.29%
Monthly Volatility:
14.57%
Yearly Volatility:
50.48%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.03%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -68.36% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.67%
Weekly VaR:
-14.92%
Monthly VaR:
-29.84%
How Much Can the price of
FISI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.98
This translates to price declining to:
$3.86
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FISI is a 110.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 80.43% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 14.07% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FISI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.98
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.652
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.921
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.94
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.669
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.153
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.621
Beta is 58.42% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 2.13% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.39%
Sustainable growth rate is 90.50% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.051
Alpha is -539.51% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -325% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FISI
Equity cost of capital:
0.099
Equity cost of capital is 1.44% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.45%
Before-tax cost of debt:
12.01%
After-tax cost of debt:
9.49%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
9.49%
WACC is -13.97% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.49
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.31
Annual revenue growth rate is -14.44% below industry average
EPS:
$4.44
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
17.19%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 42.98% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.45
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 11.66%
Equity growth rate per share is -69.89% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$4.83
EBITDA per share
$8.84
Valuation Analysis Today of
FISI
P/E Ratio:
6.15
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.25
P/E ratio is -59.65% lower than main peers & is -50.41% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $55.09
FISI is -53.33% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $34.31
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.60
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.45
Price to sales ratio is -42.71% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.31
Price to free cash flow: 4.72
Price to free cash flow ratio is -58.36% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
95.20%
Net income growth rate is 72.86% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.79%
Dividend yeild: 4.36%
Previous Dividend: $0.29
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.29
Previous Dividend: $1.12
Expected next dividend best case: $0.30
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.27
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.53%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$0.29
2021-12-16--$0.27
2021-06-17--$0.27
2022-03-17--$0.29
2021-09-16--$0.27
2021-03-18--$0.27
Dividend growth rate is -93.50% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
5.83%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-5.65%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.40%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.36%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.16% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.43
Interest coverage ratio is 1279.18% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
31.66%
Annual debt growth is 9897% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.506
Statistical significance of correlation:
FISI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 1.05% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.03
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.058
Kurtosis
7.455
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.249
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FISI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
50.06%
Operating profit margin is 39.78% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.67%
Effective tax rate is -8.72% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.61%
Return on equity (ROE) is -36.24% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.83%
Return on assets (ROA) is -20.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
60.84
Current ratio is 1.50% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.46%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
257.5K
Each employee generates -32% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
216.8K
Each employee generates -4% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
154.5K
Each employee generates 9% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
70.7K
Each employee generates -15% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
118.6K
Each employee generates -15% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FISI
INDEPENDENT BANK CORPORATION (XNAS:IBCP)
TCV Acquisition Corp (XNAS:TCVA)
Orion Acquisition Corp (XNAS:OHPA)
ADVENT TECHNOLOGIES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ADN)
ALERUS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:ALRS)
Amalgamated Bank (XNAS:AMAL)
SENIOR CONNECT ACQUISITION CORP. I (XNAS:SNRH)
WATERSTONE FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:WSBF)
BUSINESS FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:BFST)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
160.92M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
63.57M
-
60.56M
62.32M
1.76M
-
380.00K
168.28M
11.85M
9.46M
135.48M
-
96.55M
89.59M
17.62M
96.55M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.36M
Differed Income Tax :
554.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
443.00K
Change in Working Capital :
24.85M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
44.19M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 50669.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
170.40M
1.33B
1.50B
-
-
-
1.50B
40.12M
-
148.43M
-
-
- 40115.00K
74.15M
3.84B
5.27B
-
24.67M
-
-
-
24.67M
73.99M
3.90B
3.97B
-
4.00B
161.00K
423.57M
- 67094.0K
912.91M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.27B
5.27B
1.33B
98.66M
- 71743.0K
33.62M
- 62045.00K
- 79094.00K
-
-
- 15026.00K
- 4624.00K
145.84M
126.19M
-
91.29M
170.40M
79.11M
44.19M
-
44.19M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FISI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$27.55
$47.95
$51.12
$54.50
$58.10