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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fidus Investment Corporation (XNAS:FDUS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FDUS
Name:
FIDUS INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNAS:FDUS)
Sector:
- 90647.00K
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. Edward Ross
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIDUS INVESTMENT CORPORATION(FDUS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
19.7
One Month Price Target:
$19.87
Six Month Price Target :
$20.75
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$21.8
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$19.6
Price Upper limit ($) :
$19.84
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$18.24
This week:
$16.44
This month :
$13.19
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
481.42M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
24.44M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
43.64%
-34.35%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.45
$23.34
$12.95
$16.06
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$22.32
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.66
$17.07
$17.74
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FDUS
Sharpe Ratio:
2.62%
Comparison:
FDUS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 225.64% higher than the industry
& ratio is 14.88% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FDUS
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.52%
Monthly returns:
2.09%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 172.83% above industry average
Classification:
FDUS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.64
Statistical test of Returns:
FDUS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.65%
Weekly Volatility:
8.16%
Monthly Volatility:
16.32%
Yearly Volatility:
56.53%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.23%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.35% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.39%
Weekly VaR:
-16.52%
Monthly VaR:
-33.05%
How Much Can the price of
FDUS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.18
This translates to price declining to:
$2.96
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FDUS is a 133.25% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 99.82% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 40.42% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FDUS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.58
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.874
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.236
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.891
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.719
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.086
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.651
Beta is 143.45% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -6.50% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.24%
Sustainable growth rate is -53.04% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.111
Alpha is -298.35% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 704% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FDUS
Equity cost of capital:
0.140
Equity cost of capital is -5.12% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.87%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.33%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.42%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.42%
WACC is 28.86% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.99
Annual revenue growth rate is -39.03% below industry average
EPS:
$4.76
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
33.87%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 21.94% higher than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.36
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -0.03%
Equity growth rate per share is -100.13% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$15.84
EBITDA per share
-$1,692.51
Valuation Analysis Today of
FDUS
P/E Ratio:
4.89
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
167.91
P/E ratio is -97.08% lower than main peers & is -69.69% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $76.86
FDUS is -74.37% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.79
Price to sales ratio is -44.70% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.99
Price to free cash flow: 14.47
Price to free cash flow ratio is -61.34% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
135.06%
Net income growth rate is -7.10% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 11.14%
Dividend yeild: 9.09%
Previous Dividend: $0.43
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.43
Previous Dividend: $1.79
Expected next dividend best case: $0.53
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.33
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.36
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 60.68%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.43
2021-12-02--$0.41
2021-06-11--$0.39
2022-03-10--$0.53
2021-09-13--$0.42
2021-03-11--$0.38
Dividend growth rate is 998.99% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
79.56%
Net debt to equity ratio:
61.86%
Debt to assets ratio:
42.58%
Net debt to assets ratio:
33.11%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -18.53% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-2467.81
Interest coverage ratio is -4249.78% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-17.42%
Annual debt growth is 152% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.96%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.44
Statistical significance of correlation:
FDUS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is -23.70% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.025
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.052
Kurtosis
51.402
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.993
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FDUS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
2.12%
Effective tax rate is -91.31% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
23.90%
Return on equity (ROE) is -5.47% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.79%
Return on assets (ROA) is 119.17% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FDUS
ENTERPRISE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:EBTC)
THBR
Nightdragon Acquisition Corp (XNAS:NDAC)
GORES HOLDINGS VIII, INC. (XNAS:GIIX)
International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. (XNAS:IGIC)
FCAC
RBB BANCORP (XNAS:RBB)
THCB
SIERRA BANCORP (XNAS:BSRR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
127.06M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
56.14M
-
4.64M
4.64M
-
3.65M
8.29M
74.91M
16.76M
- 41496000.00K
- 41360463.00K
-
116.26M
118.78M
2.52M
116.26M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 10188.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 92149.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 90647.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
86.11M
-
86.11M
10.32M
-
-
-
-
-
-
812.00M
-
-
-
909.01M
909.01M
5.31M
-
2.04M
-
-
-
387.05M
-
387.05M
809.56M
422.50M
24.00K
124.67M
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
486.50M
909.01M
-
387.05M
300.9M
-
-
-
- 20194.00K
-
-
- 12952.00K
40.49M
7.34M
-
- 83304.00K
86.11M
169.42M
- 90647.00K
-
- 90647.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FDUS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$21.91
$319.67
$353.69
$391.35
$433.01