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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (XNYS:FIS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FIS
Name:
FIDELITY NATIONAL INFORMATION SERVICES, INC. (XNYS:FIS)
Sector:
484.00M
Industry:
Information Technology Services
CEO:
Mr. Gary Norcross
Total Employees:
65,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -102.79% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIDELITY NATIONAL INFORMATION SERVICES, INC.(FIS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
89.97
One Month Price Target:
$90.37
Six Month Price Target :
$92.35
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$94.72
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$89.59
Price Upper limit ($) :
$90.29
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$85.68
This week:
$80.38
This month :
$70.8
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
54.35B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
607.98M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.31%
-16.59%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$109.89
$100.90
$70.05
$79.04
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$97.98
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$96.06
$81.94
$83.88
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FIS
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.81%
Comparison:
FIS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -200.05% lower than the industry
& is -179.55% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FIS
Daily returns:
-0.03%
Weekly returns:
-0.16%
Monthly returns:
-0.66%
Yearly returns:
14.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -154.75% below industry average
Classification:
FIS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.27
Statistical test of Returns:
FIS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.30%
Weekly Volatility:
5.15%
Monthly Volatility:
10.30%
Yearly Volatility:
35.70%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.52%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.28% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.77%
Weekly VaR:
-10.66%
Monthly VaR:
-21.31%
How Much Can the price of
FIS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-73.82%
This translates to price declining to:
$72.67
This translates to price declining to:
$23.55
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FIS is a 50.41% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 28.85% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -24.06% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FIS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.79
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.705
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.997
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.659
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.847
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.832
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.28
Beta is -38.60% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.209
Beta is -34.96% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.164
Alpha is -646.83% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1046% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FIS
Equity cost of capital:
0.085
Equity cost of capital is -25.33% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.16%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.96%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.76%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.76%
WACC is -20.07% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$23.27
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.16
Annual revenue growth rate is -166.54% below industry average
EPS:
$1.47
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.63
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 21.54%
Equity growth rate per share is -31.28% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$23.37
EBITDA per share
$9.36
Valuation Analysis Today of
FIS
P/E Ratio:
65.33
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
47.54
P/E ratio is 37.42% higher than main peers & is 37.62% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $69.78
FIS is 28.94% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $53.12
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $33.21
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.87
Price to sales ratio is 5.88% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.16
Price to free cash flow: 15.98
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-73.75%
Net income growth rate is -100.09% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 31.54%
Dividend yeild: 1.91%
Previous Dividend: $0.47
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.47
Previous Dividend: $1.72
Expected next dividend best case: $0.51
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.43
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.39
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.19%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.47
2021-12-10--$0.39
2021-06-10--$0.39
2022-03-10--$0.47
2021-09-09--$0.39
2021-03-11--$0.39
Dividend growth rate is -144.31% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
30.21%
Net debt to equity ratio:
37.58%
Debt to assets ratio:
17.50%
Net debt to assets ratio:
21.77%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -72.42% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
30.93
Interest coverage ratio is -25.97% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.52%
Annual debt growth is -41% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 53.90%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.751
Statistical significance of correlation:
FIS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
Stock price is 26.06% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.004
Kurtosis
9.219
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.141
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FIS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
151%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.87%
Operating profit margin is -213.32% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
151%
Effective Tax Rate:
36.45%
Effective tax rate is 38.06% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
1.94%
Return on equity (ROE) is -96.56% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.12%
Return on assets (ROA) is 1212.86% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
0.74
Current ratio is -68.20% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
108.6
Cash conversion cycle is 189.58% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 168.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.26%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
217.6K
Each employee generates -49% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
87.6K
Each employee generates 95% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
14.0K
Each employee generates 64% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
7.4K
Each employee generates -212% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates -212% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FIS
Abb Ltd (XNYS:ABB)
BLOCK, INC. (XNYS:SQ)
UBER TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:UBER)
PALO ALTO NETWORKS, INC. (XNAS:PANW)
TE Connectivity Ltd (XNYS:TEL)
SNOWFLAKE INC. (XNYS:SNOW)
VMWARE, INC. (XNYS:VMW)
AMPHENOL CORPORATION (XNYS:APH)
SUNSTONE METALS LTD (XASX:STM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�38%
Buy�42%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
14.15B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
8.81B
5.34B
-
-
3.97B
-
-
3.97B
2.00M
184.00M
4.08B
5.69B
1.11B
910.00M
1.43B
522.00M
910.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.01B
Differed Income Tax :
- 112000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
57.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 248000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
62.00M
Other Working Capital:
- 180000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
65.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
896.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 108000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.55B
-
1.55B
5.30B
-
3.30B
10.15B
901.00M
52.99B
14.09B
-
-
3.08B
71.05B
-
81.20B
2.69B
5.01B
-
847.00M
5.23B
13.78B
14.21B
1.95B
20.21B
-
33.99B
6.00M
2.72B
106.0M
44.19B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
12.77B
47.03B
81.01B
-
19.22B
17.7B
-
- 182000.00K
- 290000.00K
- 16609000.00K
-
- 77000.00K
- 287000.00K
15.89B
- 1085000.00K
- 103000.00K
- 582000.00K
3.70B
4.28B
896.00M
- 412000.00K
484.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FIS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$100.68
$106.00
$111.60
$117.49
$123.70