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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (XNYS:FNF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FNF
Name:
FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC. (XNYS:FNF)
Sector:
624.00M
Industry:
Insurance�Specialty
CEO:
Mr. Raymond Quirk
Total Employees:
28,290
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -45.69% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC.(FNF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�SPECIALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
39.64
One Month Price Target:
$39.95
Six Month Price Target :
$41.48
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$43.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$39.48
Price Upper limit ($) :
$39.81
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$37.65
This week:
$35.19
This month :
$30.74
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
10.86B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
276.32M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.86%
-20.07%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.88
$44.68
$30.40
$34.60
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$43.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.41
$35.96
$36.87
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FNF
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.16%
Comparison:
FNF, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -176.79% lower than the industry
& is -107.17% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FNF
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.02%
Monthly returns:
0.10%
Yearly returns:
3.76%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -69.09% below industry average
Classification:
FNF, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
FNF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.45%
Weekly Volatility:
5.47%
Monthly Volatility:
10.95%
Yearly Volatility:
37.92%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.00%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -59.30% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.02%
Weekly VaR:
-11.23%
Monthly VaR:
-22.46%
How Much Can the price of
FNF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-77.81%
This translates to price declining to:
$31.79
This translates to price declining to:
$8.80
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FNF is a 58.54% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 35.82% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.62% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FNF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.38
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.821
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.161
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.042
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.72
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.666
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.027
Beta is 34.72% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.047
Beta is 32.15% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
25.91%
Sustainable growth rate is 57.59% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.115
Alpha is 74.79% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -730% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FNF
Equity cost of capital:
0.126
Equity cost of capital is 22.34% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.51%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.31%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.61%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.61%
WACC is 12.89% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$54.60
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.35
Annual revenue growth rate is 175.57% above the industry average
EPS:
$7.71
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
29.31%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 287.18% higher than the Insurance�Specialty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$13.75
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 31.17%
Equity growth rate per share is 274.56% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$12.68
EBITDA per share
$13.30
Valuation Analysis Today of
FNF
P/E Ratio:
5.53
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.54
P/E ratio is -59.17% lower than main peers & is -21.33% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $54.18
FNF is -26.84% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $36.47
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $17.89
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.73
Price to sales ratio is -73.87% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.35
Price to free cash flow: 2.88
Price to free cash flow ratio is -54.40% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
272.04%
Net income growth rate is 108.26% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.60%
Dividend yeild: 4.34%
Previous Dividend: $0.44
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.44
Previous Dividend: $1.72
Expected next dividend best case: $0.48
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.40
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.37
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.75%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-15--$0.44
2021-12-16--$0.44
2021-06-15--$0.36
2022-03-16--$0.44
2021-09-15--$0.40
2021-03-16--$0.36
Dividend growth rate is -366.08% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
43.39%
Net debt to equity ratio:
15.27%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.76%
Net debt to assets ratio:
2.03%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -83.36% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
31.69
Interest coverage ratio is 793.57% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-2.88%
Annual debt growth is -23% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.645
Statistical significance of correlation:
FNF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.587
Stock price is 9.94% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.587
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.054
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.077
Kurtosis
12.649
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.947
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FNF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
80%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.55%
Operating profit margin is -85.60% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
80%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.39%
Effective tax rate is 11.88% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
27.41%
Return on equity (ROE) is 27.37% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.64%
Return on assets (ROA) is -42.47% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.59%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
533.3K
Each employee generates -48% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
129.9K
Each employee generates -77% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
78.3K
Each employee generates -80% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
22.1K
Each employee generates -79% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.7M
Each employee generates -79% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FNF
W. R. BERKLEY CORPORATION (XNYS:WRB)
LOEWS CORPORATION (XNYS:L)
EQUITABLE HOLDINGS, INC (XNYS:EQH)
Nomura Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:NMR)
SHINHAN FINANCIAL GROUP CO.,LTD (XNYS:SHG)
FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMS INC. (XNYS:FDS)
apo MultiAsset Mandat Protect PB
LUFAX HOLDING LTD (XNYS:LU)
LINCOLN NATIONAL CORPORATION (XNYS:LNC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
15.09B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
932.00M
3.69B
-
3.54B
3.54B
-
- 435000.00K
497.00M
2.04B
116.00M
644.00M
3.68B
687.00M
2.21B
2.88B
702.00M
2.21B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
182.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
13.00M
Change in Working Capital :
293.00M
Accounts Receivables:
15.00M
Other Working Capital:
- 418000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 220000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
667.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 43000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 329000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 5065000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.27B
33.22B
35.50B
4.45B
-
-
-
560.00M
4.54B
3.43B
38.42B
-
-
46.95B
107.81B
60.86B
2.77B
-
179.00M
-
-
-
3.51B
-
3.60B
56.34B
52.74B
-
4.64B
- 712000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
12.21B
8.08B
60.82B
71.64B
3.51B
1.2B
1.98B
39.00M
- 3414000.00K
-
-
- 129000.00K
- 124000.00K
1.43B
1.18B
-
- 1567000.00K
2.79B
4.36B
667.00M
- 43000.00K
624.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FNF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$43.55
$81.55
$89.13
$97.42
$106.47