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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fibrogen, Inc. (XNAS:FGEN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FGEN
Name:
FIBROGEN, INC. (XNAS:FGEN)
Sector:
- 45114.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Enrique Conterno
Total Employees:
566
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -5.47% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIBROGEN, INC.(FGEN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
12.6
One Month Price Target:
$12.66
Six Month Price Target :
$12.97
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$13.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$12.51
Price Upper limit ($) :
$12.69
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$11.5
This week:
$10.15
This month :
$7.7
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.15B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
93.74M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.82%
-43.01%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.69
$15.38
$7.51
$9.82
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$14.63
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.14
$10.57
$11.06
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FGEN
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.62%
Comparison:
FGEN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -131.90% lower than the industry
& is -127.22% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FGEN
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.09%
Monthly returns:
-0.35%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -116.51% below industry average
Classification:
FGEN, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.39
Statistical test of Returns:
FGEN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.22%
Weekly Volatility:
9.44%
Monthly Volatility:
18.89%
Yearly Volatility:
65.43%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.54%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 7.59% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.69%
Weekly VaR:
-19.44%
Monthly VaR:
-38.87%
How Much Can the price of
FGEN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-35%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$8.24
This translates to price declining to:
$1.89
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FGEN is a 174.35% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 135.04% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -11.16% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FGEN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.87
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.851
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.203
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.561
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.194
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.099
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.071
Beta is -19.04% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -24.72% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.133
Alpha is -193.44% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -844% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FGEN
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -17.67% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.88%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.74%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.17%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.17%
WACC is -9.70% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.75
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.64
Annual revenue growth rate is -99.95% below industry average
EPS:
-$3.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
52.23%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 423.40% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.92
EBITDA per share
-$2.84
Valuation Analysis Today of
FGEN
P/E Ratio:
104.54
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
408.4
P/E ratio is -74.40% lower than main peers & is 16.51% higher than the industry
-
FGEN is -104.62% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.58
Price to sales ratio is -88.68% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.64
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
204.51%
Net income growth rate is 189.74% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
54.38%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-56.29%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.52%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-11.93%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -72.67% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-100.2
Interest coverage ratio is -15.33% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
164.40%
Annual debt growth is 22% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.12%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.472
Statistical significance of correlation:
FGEN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 38.81% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0
Kurtosis
20.053
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.609
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FGEN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
359%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-109.08%
Operating profit margin is -74.56% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
359%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.12%
Effective tax rate is -102.03% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-178.09%
Return on equity (ROE) is 210.63% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-37.73%
Return on assets (ROA) is 84.95% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.05
Current ratio is -74.63% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
243.9
Cash conversion cycle is -54.25% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 17.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.09%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
455.3K
Each employee generates -72% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 470.7K
Each employee generates -222% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 497.3K
Each employee generates -489% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 79.7K
Each employee generates -154% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
391.4K
Each employee generates -154% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 53.03%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1578.05% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
FGEN
QUANTERIX CORPORATION (XNAS:QTRX)
VAXCYTE, INC. (XNAS:PCVX)
IMMUNOCORE HOLDINGS PLC (XNAS:IMCR)
NEXTGEN HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:NXGN)
Merus NV (XNAS:MRUS)
AXSOME THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:AXSM)
KEROS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KROS)
TIVITY HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:TVTY)
NURIX THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:NRIX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
257.71M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
13.71M
244.00M
401.39M
-
123.71M
-
-
525.10M
1.36M
2.66M
12.05M
- 266433.00K
- 281095.00K
- 281474.00K
- 282712.00K
328.00K
- 281474.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.58M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
17.15M
Change in Working Capital :
34.38M
Accounts Receivables:
- 26481.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 13024.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
618.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 8476.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1638.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 20912.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
185.90M
242.18M
428.08M
43.88M
43.07M
9.39M
524.42M
114.87M
-
-
97.64M
-
9.01M
221.52M
-
745.93M
36.35M
10.98M
13.93M
7.50M
200.54M
255.37M
85.95M
41.70M
312.55M
-
567.92M
933.00K
- 1327239.00K
- 6505.0K
1.49B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
538.80M
158.05M
725.97M
339.82M
96.93M
- 88970.0K
83.49M
- 35000.00K
25.94M
- 102.00K
183.00K
-
-
- 2974.00K
- 2893.00K
107.00K
14.67M
185.90M
171.22M
- 8476.00K
- 36638.00K
- 45114.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FGEN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$13.37
$14.15
$14.98
$15.85
$16.77