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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fedex Corporation (XNYS:FDX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FDX
Name:
FEDEX CORPORATION (XNYS:FDX)
Sector:
514.00M
Industry:
Integrated Freight & Logistics
CEO:
Mr. Frederick Smith
Total Employees:
191,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -266.52% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FEDEX CORPORATION(FDX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
208.72
One Month Price Target:
$210.14
Six Month Price Target :
$217.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$225.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$207.95
Price Upper limit ($) :
$209.79
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$197.75
This week:
$184.2
This month :
$159.67
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
53.07B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
259.91M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.41%
-15.14%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$259.59
$236.12
$157.85
$181.32
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$228.48
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$223.47
$188.89
$193.97
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FDX
Sharpe Ratio:
2.48%
Comparison:
FDX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -20.92% lower than the industry
& ratio is 8.77% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FDX
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.37%
Monthly returns:
1.46%
Yearly returns:
21.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -17.24% below industry average
Classification:
FDX, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.54
Statistical test of Returns:
FDX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.59%
Weekly Volatility:
5.80%
Monthly Volatility:
11.60%
Yearly Volatility:
40.19%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.96%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -62.95% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.25%
Weekly VaR:
-11.75%
Monthly VaR:
-23.50%
How Much Can the price of
FDX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-81.40%
This translates to price declining to:
$167.10
This translates to price declining to:
$38.82
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FDX is a 65.85% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 42.08% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 3.29% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FDX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.21
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.016
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.437
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.591
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.857
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.794
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.925
Beta is 30.98% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.068
Beta is 13.48% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.38%
Sustainable growth rate is -37.03% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.061
Alpha is -43.18% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 389% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FDX
Equity cost of capital:
0.114
Equity cost of capital is 9.42% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.58%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.44%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.35%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.35%
WACC is -16.78% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$352.75
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.23
Annual revenue growth rate is -71.42% below industry average
EPS:
$14.38
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
110.02%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 189.09% higher than the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$11.68
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 27.23%
Equity growth rate per share is 332.18% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$130.57
EBITDA per share
$41.98
Valuation Analysis Today of
FDX
P/E Ratio:
14.46
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.56
P/E ratio is -55.60% lower than main peers & is -9.87% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $230.68
FDX is -9.52% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $126.17
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $79.36
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.59
Price to sales ratio is -62.73% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.23
Price to free cash flow: 17.87
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
13.53%
Net income growth rate is -93.75% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.89%
Dividend yeild: 1.63%
Previous Dividend: $1.15
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.15
Previous Dividend: $3.40
Expected next dividend best case: $1.27
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.03
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.73
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 6.87%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 26/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 09/12/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 07/11/2022
Previous dividend record date: 27/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 14/06/2022
Dividend History:
2022-06-24--$1.15
2021-12-10--$0.75
2021-06-25--$0.75
2022-03-04--$0.75
2021-09-02--$0.75
2021-03-05--$0.65
Dividend growth rate is -364.76% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
139.53%
Net debt to equity ratio:
121.18%
Debt to assets ratio:
41.36%
Net debt to assets ratio:
35.92%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -78.50% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
68.2
Interest coverage ratio is 86.67% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
55.21%
Annual debt growth is 15% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.19%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.648
Statistical significance of correlation:
FDX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.551
Stock price is 17.63% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.551
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.047
Kurtosis
6.36
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.084
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FDX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
86%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.67%
Operating profit margin is 36.19% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
86%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.75%
Effective tax rate is 5.80% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
21.12%
Return on equity (ROE) is -34.53% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.26%
Return on assets (ROA) is -192.08% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.51
Current ratio is -27.35% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-43
Cash conversion cycle is -107.50% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.34%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
480.0K
Each employee generates -52% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
57.1K
Each employee generates -15% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
26.9K
Each employee generates 0% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
2.7K
Each employee generates -75% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
327.2K
Each employee generates -75% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FDX
CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LIMITED (XNYS:CP)
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORPORATION (XNYS:NSC)
WASTE MANAGEMENT, INC. (XNYS:WM)
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORPORATION (XNYS:NOC)
ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC. (XNYS:ITW)
GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION (XNYS:GD)
EMERSON ELECTRIC CO. (XNYS:EMR)
JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATIONAL PLC (XNYS:JCI)
THOMSON REUTERS CORPORATION (XNYS:TRI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�33%
Buy�54%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
2/28/22
Revenue:
91.68B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
72.08B
19.61B
-
-
-
-
13.17B
13.17B
-
160.00M
3.93B
10.91B
6.12B
5.14B
6.83B
1.69B
5.14B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
971.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
69.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1105000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 44000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.04B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.08B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
8/31/21
2022
Q1
6.85B
-
6.85B
11.13B
577.00M
991.00M
19.55B
51.90B
6.84B
-
-
-
3.76B
62.50B
-
82.05B
3.82B
2.39B
-
-
6.70B
12.91B
33.94B
6.91B
44.82B
-
57.73B
32.00M
30.46B
- 881000.0K
- 5292000.00K
August 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
85.24B
24.32B
82.05B
-
36.32B
29.5B
-
- 1550000.00K
- 1550000.00K
- 64000.00K
84.00M
- 549000.00K
- 200000.00K
- 1000.00K
- 730000.00K
- 38000.00K
- 234000.00K
6.85B
7.09B
2.08B
- 1570000.00K
514.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FDX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$226.84
$536.49
$580.17
$627.40
$678.48