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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Federal Realty Investment Trust (XNYS:FRT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FRT
Name:
FEDERAL REALTY INVESTMENT TRUST (XNYS:FRT)
Sector:
88.61M
Industry:
REIT�Retail
CEO:
Mr. Donald Wood
Total Employees:
310
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FEDERAL REALTY INVESTMENT TRUST(FRT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
100.77
One Month Price Target:
$101.41
Six Month Price Target :
$104.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$108.5
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$100.28
Price Upper limit ($) :
$101.27
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$94.8
This week:
$87.42
This month :
$74.07
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.35B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
80.91M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
32.9%
-21.35%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$128.49
$115.88
$73.05
$85.66
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$111.78
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$109.09
$89.73
$92.45
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FRT
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.16%
Comparison:
FRT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -115.33% lower than the industry
& is -106.99% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FRT
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.02%
Monthly returns:
0.09%
Yearly returns:
8.74%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -88.32% below industry average
Classification:
FRT, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.92
Statistical test of Returns:
FRT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.89%
Weekly Volatility:
6.46%
Monthly Volatility:
12.91%
Yearly Volatility:
44.72%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.60%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -79.11% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.92%
Weekly VaR:
-13.25%
Monthly VaR:
-26.50%
How Much Can the price of
FRT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-91.79%
This translates to price declining to:
$77.20
This translates to price declining to:
$8.28
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FRT is a 87.01% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 60.21% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.45% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FRT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.14
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.925
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.308
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.71
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.85
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.834
Beta is 36.91% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.101
Beta is 3.71% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.099
Alpha is 409.43% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -633% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FRT
Equity cost of capital:
0.110
Equity cost of capital is 2.62% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
28.52%
After-tax cost of debt:
22.53%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
22.53%
WACC is 57.65% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.78
Annual revenue growth rate is -84.51% below industry average
EPS:
$3.29
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-10.91%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -808.15% lower than the REIT�Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.11
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 5.59%
Equity growth rate per share is -126.69% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$8.30
Valuation Analysis Today of
FRT
P/E Ratio:
29.01
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.8
P/E ratio is 16.97% higher than main peers & is -39.21% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $156.99
FRT is -35.81% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $49.58
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $39.78
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.24
Price to sales ratio is -14.18% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.78
Price to free cash flow: 90.63
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
2.42%
Net income growth rate is -118.19% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.71%
Dividend yeild: 4.25%
Previous Dividend: $1.07
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.07
Previous Dividend: $4.28
Expected next dividend best case: $1.08
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.06
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.06
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.19%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 20/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 22/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-21--$1.07
2021-12-31--$1.07
2021-06-21--$1.06
2022-03-15--$1.07
2021-09-21--$1.07
2021-03-15--$1.06
Dividend growth rate is -98.80% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
178.19%
Net debt to equity ratio:
10.93%
Debt to assets ratio:
62.26%
Net debt to assets ratio:
3.75%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 13.82% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.28
Interest coverage ratio is 76.14% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-5.49%
Annual debt growth is -539% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.595
Statistical significance of correlation:
FRT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.511
Stock price is 16.39% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.511
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.063
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.106
Kurtosis
32.278
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.327
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FRT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
269%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
40.20%
Operating profit margin is 30.90% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
269%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.07%
Return on equity (ROE) is -13.98% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.46%
Return on assets (ROA) is 16.60% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.6x
Current Ratio:
0.52
Current ratio is -98.76% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-202.6
Cash conversion cycle is -195.94% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
3.2M
Each employee generates -15% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
2.2M
Each employee generates -32% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
855.6K
Each employee generates -32% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
285.8K
Each employee generates -49% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -49% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FRT
FRT-PC
CUBESMART (XNYS:CUBE)
LIFE STORAGE, INC. (XNYS:LSI)
VER-PF
STORE CAPITAL CORPORATION (XNYS:STOR)
ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. (XNYS:NLY)
Verbund AG (XWBO:VER)
AMH-PH
NNN-PF
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�25%
Hold�29%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
989.83M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
324.73M
665.10M
-
51.94M
51.94M
-
287.78M
339.72M
446.00K
127.19M
279.08M
671.51M
397.91M
265.25M
271.33M
-
265.25M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
62.98M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 117705.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 11257.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
103.07M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
103.07M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
157.94M
13.18M
171.13M
183.48M
-
-
354.61M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.31B
7.67B
233.77M
445.89M
-
-
-
679.66M
-
4.06B
4.06B
-
4.74B
799.00K
- 1101154.00K
1.5M
3.73B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
664.45M
2.63B
7.37B
-
445.89M
287.9M
-
- 88194.00K
- 88194.00K
- 869.00K
-
-
- 1875.00K
- 9105.00K
- 11849.00K
-
3.03M
178.19M
175.16M
103.07M
88.61M
88.61M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FRT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$107.24
$115.47
$124.33
$133.86
$144.13