RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fastly, Inc. (XNYS:FSLY) InDepth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FSLY
Name:
FASTLY, INC. (XNYS:FSLY)
Sector:
 19387.00K
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Joshua Bixby
Total Employees:
976
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is 100.47% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONGTERM ANALYSIS OF FASTLY, INC.(FSLY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
8.47
One Month Price Target:
$8.54
Six Month Price Target :
$8.88
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$9.29
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$8.39
Price Upper limit ($) :
$8.55
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$7.49
This week:
$6.29
This month :
$4.11
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.10B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
122.20M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
45.68%
33.63%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.00
$10.93
$3.94
$6.01
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$10.26
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.82
$6.67
$7.12
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
RiskAdjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FSLY
Sharpe Ratio:
0.43%
Comparison:
FSLY, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest riskadjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 55.87% lower than the industry
& is 81.34% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FSLY
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.66%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 20.85% below industry average
Classification:
FSLY, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of TTest of Returns:
0.48
Statistical test of Returns:
FSLY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.62%
Weekly Volatility:
12.58%
Monthly Volatility:
25.15%
Yearly Volatility:
87.13%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.18%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 25.60% below longterm volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
11.52%
Weekly VaR:
25.76%
Monthly VaR:
51.51%
How Much Can the price of
FSLY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
45%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.64
This translates to price declining to:
$1.27
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FSLY is a 263.56% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 211.46% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 56.47% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FSLY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 5001.44
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.202
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.699
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.704
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.619
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.821
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.31
Beta is 9.58% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is 7.48% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:


Alpha provided  Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.051
Alpha is 116.74% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 326% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FSLY
Equity cost of capital:
0.130
Equity cost of capital is 5.56% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.37%
Beforetax cost of debt:
0.59%
Aftertax cost of debt:
0.46%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.46%
WACC is 25.31% below industry mean WACC
Key PerShare Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.04
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.06
Annual revenue growth rate is 49.77% below industry average
EPS:
$2.01
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
36.80%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 34.53% higher than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:



Debt per share
$8.31
EBITDA per share
$1.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
FSLY
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
172.32
P/E ratio is 100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry

FSLY is 102.37% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio


P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.78
Price to sales ratio is 75.73% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.06


Net income growth rate (3Y):
371.97%
Net income growth rate is 52.34% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis















Dividend History:
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00

Indepth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
103.95%
Net debt to equity ratio:
83.44%
Debt to assets ratio:
47.57%
Net debt to assets ratio:
38.18%
Debttoasset ratio is 13.30% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
25.17
Interest coverage ratio is 147.38% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2205.27%
Annual debt growth is 136% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.70%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.396
Statistical significance of correlation:
FSLY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 21.24% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.103
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.336
Kurtosis
9.897
Returns have a significant fattails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.213
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FSLY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
203%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
62.41%
Operating profit margin is 225.68% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
203%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.03%
Effective tax rate is 99.90% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
24.19%
Return on equity (ROE) is 84.96% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.07%
Return on assets (ROA) is 188.23% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
5.26
Current ratio is 75.54% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
46.3
Cash conversion cycle is 51.10% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
16.94%
Indepth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
381.0K
Each employee generates 10% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
 160.0K
Each employee generates 1589% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
 242.1K
Each employee generates 1288% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
 19.9K
Each employee generates 156% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.4M
Each employee generates 156% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate 69.57%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 4450.11% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
FSLY
VIZIO HOLDING CORP. (XNYS:VZIO)
BLACKBERRY LIMITED (XNYS:BB)
PRSP
XEROX HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:XRX)
WORKIVA INC. (XNYS:WK)
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:DOCN)
ALTERYX, INC. (XNYS:AYX)
SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNYS:SAIC)
TERADATA CORPORATION (XNYS:TDC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%