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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Factset Research Systems Inc. (XNYS:FDS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FDS
Name:
FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMS INC. (XNYS:FDS)
Sector:
64.34M
Industry:
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
CEO:
Mr. F. Philip Snow
Total Employees:
10,691
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -47.59% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMS INC.(FDS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FINANCIAL DATA & STOCK EXCHANGES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
430.44
One Month Price Target:
$432.31
Six Month Price Target :
$441.68
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$452.92
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$429.29
Price Upper limit ($) :
$432.35
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$412.31
This week:
$389.9
This month :
$349.36
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
16.57B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
37.98M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.12%
-11.1%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$514.49
$475.42
$346.39
$385.46
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$462.70
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$454.36
$398.07
$406.52
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FDS
Sharpe Ratio:
3.82%
Comparison:
FDS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 41.21% higher than the industry
& ratio is 67.46% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FDS
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.44%
Monthly returns:
1.78%
Yearly returns:
18.99%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 12.21% above industry average
Classification:
FDS, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.52
Statistical test of Returns:
FDS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.09%
Weekly Volatility:
4.68%
Monthly Volatility:
9.37%
Yearly Volatility:
32.44%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.56%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -25.29% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.21%
Weekly VaR:
-9.42%
Monthly VaR:
-18.84%
How Much Can the price of
FDS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-65.25%
This translates to price declining to:
$363.13
This translates to price declining to:
$149.56
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FDS is a 32.95% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 13.90% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.09% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FDS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.78
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.746
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.055
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.468
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.768
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.823
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.129
Beta is -31.16% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.802
Beta is -3.07% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
27.53%
Sustainable growth rate is -22.39% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.128
Alpha is 24.03% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 817% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FDS
Equity cost of capital:
0.085
Equity cost of capital is -1.95% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.10%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.98%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.56%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.56%
WACC is -14.18% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$46.25
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
14.88
Annual revenue growth rate is -41.46% below industry average
EPS:
$10.18
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.47%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -64.96% lower than the Financial Data & Stock Exchanges industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$13.41
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 33.92%
Equity growth rate per share is 17.15% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$21.70
EBITDA per share
$15.34
Valuation Analysis Today of
FDS
P/E Ratio:
42.27
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
92.61
P/E ratio is -54.36% lower than main peers & is 35.89% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $316.65
FDS is 35.94% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $77.28
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $54.57
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9.31
Price to sales ratio is -6.17% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
14.88
Price to free cash flow: 32.10
Price to free cash flow ratio is -18.75% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
51.91%
Net income growth rate is -18.83% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.79%
Dividend yeild: 0.78%
Previous Dividend: $0.89
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.89
Previous Dividend: $3.35
Expected next dividend best case: $0.93
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.85
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.79
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.20%
Expected next dividend payment date: 14/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.89
2021-11-29--$0.82
2021-05-27--$0.82
2022-02-25--$0.82
2021-08-30--$0.82
2021-02-25--$0.77
Dividend growth rate is -75.65% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
75.01%
Net debt to equity ratio:
16.53%
Debt to assets ratio:
36.57%
Net debt to assets ratio:
8.06%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -33.53% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
34.41
Interest coverage ratio is 14.57% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.09%
Annual debt growth is -104% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.714
Statistical significance of correlation:
FDS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.632
Stock price is 12.87% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.632
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.013
Kurtosis
10.236
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.669
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FDS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
211%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
26.33%
Operating profit margin is -24.48% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
211%
Effective Tax Rate:
11.68%
Effective tax rate is -47.71% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
35.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is -29.63% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
17.46%
Return on assets (ROA) is 54.58% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
3.48
Current ratio is 105.77% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-12.5
Cash conversion cycle is -150.80% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.64%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
164.3K
Each employee generates -81% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
54.5K
Each employee generates -87% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
36.8K
Each employee generates -86% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
6.0K
Each employee generates -96% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
122.1K
Each employee generates -96% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FDS
SHINHAN FINANCIAL GROUP CO.,LTD (XNYS:SHG)
Markel Corporation (XNYS:MKL)
ALLY FINANCIAL INC. (XNYS:ALLY)
FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC. (XNYS:BEN)
FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC. (XNYS:FNF)
KB HOME (XNYS:KBH)
W. R. BERKLEY CORPORATION (XNYS:WRB)
EQUITABLE HOLDINGS, INC (XNYS:EQH)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�46%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
5/31/22
Revenue:
1.76B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
826.69M
929.80M
-
-
418.36M
-
49.00M
467.36M
-
16.93M
120.01M
582.55M
462.44M
393.56M
445.61M
52.05M
393.56M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
30.55M
Differed Income Tax :
1.51M
Stock Based Compensation :
10.40M
Change in Working Capital :
- 68316.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 5268.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 63705.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 8870.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
72.92M
Investments in PP&E:
- 8583.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 50018.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 250.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
11/30/21
2022
Q1
673.90M
34.99M
708.89M
157.39M
-
82.29M
948.57M
350.31M
783.03M
139.31M
-
2.13M
31.02M
1.31B
-
2.25B
105.48M
31.24M
-
54.78M
81.06M
272.56M
824.33M
35.07M
882.91M
-
1.16B
414.00K
989.19M
- 57670.0K
166.96M
November 30, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
1.29B
1.10B
2.25B
-
855.57M
181.7M
-
-
- 58851.00K
-
-
- 18639.00K
- 30656.00K
32.81M
- 16482.00K
- 5550.00K
- 7965.00K
673.90M
681.87M
72.92M
- 8583.00K
64.34M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FDS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$455.18
$678.84
$714.30
$751.61
$790.87