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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
F5, Inc. (XNAS:FFIV) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FFIV
Name:
F5, INC. (XNAS:FFIV)
Sector:
79.80M
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Francois Locoh-Donou
Total Employees:
6,461
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 86.95% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF F5, INC.(FFIV) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
156.11
One Month Price Target:
$157.12
Six Month Price Target :
$162.17
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$168.24
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$155.58
Price Upper limit ($) :
$156.76
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$149.04
This week:
$140.29
This month :
$124.47
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
9.23B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
59.56M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
8.59%
-12.84%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$188.94
$173.87
$123.28
$138.35
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$168.97
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$165.76
$143.21
$146.46
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FFIV
Sharpe Ratio:
1.40%
Comparison:
FFIV, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -14.65% lower than the industry
& is -38.78% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FFIV
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.20%
Monthly returns:
0.80%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -33.41% below industry average
Classification:
FFIV, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.63
Statistical test of Returns:
FFIV has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.23%
Weekly Volatility:
4.98%
Monthly Volatility:
9.95%
Yearly Volatility:
34.48%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.83%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -62.78% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.53%
Weekly VaR:
-10.13%
Monthly VaR:
-20.26%
How Much Can the price of
FFIV
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-70.20%
This translates to price declining to:
$128.85
This translates to price declining to:
$46.52
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FFIV is a 43.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 22.53% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -33.20% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FFIV
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.16
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.875
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.237
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.941
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.745
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.509
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.276
Beta is -9.37% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is 3.98% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.04%
Sustainable growth rate is -95.93% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.015
Alpha is -141.21% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -95% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FFIV
Equity cost of capital:
0.111
Equity cost of capital is 2.82% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.01%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$44.57
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.87
Annual revenue growth rate is -70.45% below industry average
EPS:
$5.67
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-8.52%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -128.30% lower than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.29
-
-
Debt per share
$10.62
EBITDA per share
$8.75
Valuation Analysis Today of
FFIV
P/E Ratio:
27.95
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
35.61
P/E ratio is -21.51% lower than main peers & is -57.16% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $369.89
FFIV is -57.80% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.5
Price to sales ratio is -68.11% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.87
Price to free cash flow: 16.80
Price to free cash flow ratio is -56.65% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-26.32%
Net income growth rate is -100.31% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
26.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
5.80%
Debt to assets ratio:
12.43%
Net debt to assets ratio:
2.74%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -82.17% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
64.68%
Annual debt growth is -40% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.78%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.623
Statistical significance of correlation:
FFIV has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is 29.97% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.004
Kurtosis
4.367
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.366
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FFIV
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
323%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.50%
Operating profit margin is -230.62% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
323%
Effective Tax Rate:
12.95%
Effective tax rate is -58.68% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.56%
Return on equity (ROE) is -86.36% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.88%
Return on assets (ROA) is -281.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.18
Current ratio is -49.36% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
19.6
Cash conversion cycle is -82.57% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
18.21%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
410.9K
Each employee generates 4% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
80.7K
Each employee generates 23% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
54.2K
Each employee generates 159% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
12.4K
Each employee generates -38% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
526.1K
Each employee generates -38% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 16.16%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -723.07% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
FFIV
LYFT, INC. (XNAS:LYFT)
PTC INC. (XNAS:PTC)
Logitech International SA (XNAS:LOGI)
SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:SEDG)
NortonLifeLock Inc. (XNAS:NLOK)
HASHICORP, INC. (XNAS:HCP)
COGNEX CORPORATION (XNAS:CGNX)
JACK HENRY & ASSOCIATES, INC. (XNAS:JKHY)
CHECK POINT SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIES LTD. (XNAS:CHKP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�67%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.65B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
511.01M
2.14B
524.09M
266.86M
1.20B
933.39M
-
1.72B
-
-
119.04M
521.22M
411.57M
350.12M
402.18M
52.06M
350.12M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
30.26M
Differed Income Tax :
- 6407.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
63.76M
Change in Working Capital :
- 105518.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 77223.00K
Other Working Capital:
76.07M
Other Non-Cash Items:
14.72M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
90.37M
Investments in PP&E:
- 10564.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 67911.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 36205.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
512.41M
346.55M
858.95M
419.28M
20.80M
388.94M
1.69B
422.70M
2.26B
-
76.99M
148.33M
490.51M
3.40B
-
5.09B
58.25M
19.28M
-
1.04B
314.85M
1.43B
632.55M
77.40M
1.25B
-
2.68B
145.19M
2.28B
- 21215.0K
-
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
2.24B
2.41B
5.09B
423.54M
651.83M
139.4M
72.69M
-
- 41993.00K
- 5000.00K
-
- 125011.00K
-
13.99M
- 116025.00K
- 861.00K
- 68513.00K
515.82M
584.33M
90.37M
- 10564.00K
79.80M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FFIV
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$187.56
$202.13
$217.84
$234.76
$252.99