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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
F.N.B. Corporation (XNYS:FNB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FNB
Name:
F.N.B. CORPORATION (XNYS:FNB)
Sector:
358.00M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Vincent Delie
Total Employees:
3,886
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -513.49% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF F.N.B. CORPORATION(FNB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
11.66
One Month Price Target:
$11.73
Six Month Price Target :
$12.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$12.52
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$11.6
Price Upper limit ($) :
$11.73
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$10.89
This week:
$9.93
This month :
$8.19
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.02B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
350.74M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.43%
-21.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.26
$13.61
$8.06
$9.71
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$13.07
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.72
$10.24
$10.60
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FNB
Sharpe Ratio:
1.17%
Comparison:
FNB, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -4.48% lower than the industry
& is -48.52% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FNB
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.24%
Monthly returns:
0.94%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 3.57% above industry average
Classification:
FNB, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
FNB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.26%
Weekly Volatility:
7.29%
Monthly Volatility:
14.57%
Yearly Volatility:
50.48%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.81%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -75.12% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.65%
Weekly VaR:
-14.86%
Monthly VaR:
-29.72%
How Much Can the price of
FNB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$8.66
This translates to price declining to:
$1.75
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FNB is a 109.76% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 79.70% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 14.08% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FNB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.10
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.869
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.229
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.998
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.851
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.028
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.192
Beta is -7.54% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 14.40% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.94%
Sustainable growth rate is -45.90% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.006
Alpha is -48.32% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 38% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FNB
Equity cost of capital:
0.107
Equity cost of capital is 9.75% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.68%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.19%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.31%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.31%
WACC is -10.13% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.55
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.75
Annual revenue growth rate is -92.28% below industry average
EPS:
$1.10
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.68%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -86.02% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.80
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -0.72%
Equity growth rate per share is -101.86% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$2.03
EBITDA per share
$1.59
Valuation Analysis Today of
FNB
P/E Ratio:
10.67
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
43.97
P/E ratio is -75.75% lower than main peers & is -14.05% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $13.65
FNB is -14.58% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $23.00
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $4.49
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.29
Price to sales ratio is -23.09% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.75
Price to free cash flow: 6.47
Price to free cash flow ratio is -64.45% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
8.46%
Net income growth rate is -84.65% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 4.12%
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.48
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.12
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.12
2021-12-02--$0.12
2021-05-28--$0.12
2022-03-03--$0.12
2021-09-02--$0.12
2021-03-04--$0.12
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
13.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-31.61%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.70%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-4.09%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.98% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.22
Interest coverage ratio is 650.51% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-26.20%
Annual debt growth is -8374% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 22.42%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.626
Statistical significance of correlation:
FNB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 25.03% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.067
Kurtosis
12.304
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.484
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FNB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.78%
Effective tax rate is -8.19% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.71%
Return on equity (ROE) is -43.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.87%
Return on assets (ROA) is -62.31% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
5.12
Current ratio is -91.45% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 27.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
320.0K
Each employee generates -16% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
143.3K
Each employee generates -37% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
93.9K
Each employee generates -34% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
92.1K
Each employee generates 11% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.5M
Each employee generates 11% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FNB
COHEN & STEERS, INC. (XNYS:CNS)
MOELIS & COMPANY (XNYS:MC)
NEARMAP LTD (XASX:NEA)
CI Financial Corp. (XNYS:CIXX)
BANKUNITED, INC. (XNYS:BKU)
STL-PA
DATTO HOLDING CORP. (XNYS:MSP)
AXIS CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNYS:AXS)
RYAN SPECIALTY HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:RYAN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�17%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.24B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
312.40M
-
511.80M
518.78M
6.98M
- 134052.00K
3.00M
1.01B
89.50M
12.23M
556.74M
-
365.00M
455.01M
90.02M
365.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
15.00M
Differed Income Tax :
5.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
285.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
358.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
75.00M
Purchases of Investments:
- 641000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.86B
3.45B
7.30B
471.00M
-
- 471000.00K
7.30B
394.00M
2.43B
59.00M
6.96B
-
-
9.85B
44.57B
42.02B
-
1.43B
-
-
-
1.43B
713.00M
-
713.00M
35.87B
36.58B
4.00M
1.12B
- 202000.0K
4.41B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
5.44B
42.02B
10.41B
2.14B
- 1719000.0K
721.00M
- 101000.00K
54.00M
- 206000.00K
-
- 30000.00K
-
188.00M
- 48000.00K
-
364.00M
3.86B
3.49B
358.00M
-
358.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FNB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$12.58
$24.82
$26.65
$28.63
$30.75