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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XNYS:XOM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
XOM
Name:
EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION (XNYS:XOM)
Sector:
10.88B
Industry:
Oil & Gas Integrated
CEO:
Mr. Darren Woods
Total Employees:
63,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 80.44% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION(XOM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS INTEGRATED INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
95.59
One Month Price Target:
$96.16
Six Month Price Target :
$98.98
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$102.37
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$95.25
Price Upper limit ($) :
$96.09
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$90.57
This week:
$84.36
This month :
$73.13
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
395.76B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
4.17B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.69%
-12.22%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$118.88
$108.12
$72.30
$83.06
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$104.62
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$102.32
$86.53
$88.86
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
XOM
Sharpe Ratio:
2.79%
Comparison:
XOM, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -8.97% lower than the industry
& ratio is 22.28% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
XOM
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.63%
Yearly returns:
19.62%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -0.61% below industry average
Classification:
XOM, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.19
Statistical test of Returns:
XOM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.60%
Weekly Volatility:
5.81%
Monthly Volatility:
11.62%
Yearly Volatility:
40.25%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.35%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -9.65% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.25%
Weekly VaR:
-11.75%
Monthly VaR:
-23.50%
How Much Can the price of
XOM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-81.39%
This translates to price declining to:
$76.62
This translates to price declining to:
$17.78
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
XOM is a 65.84% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 42.07% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.84% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
XOM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.06
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.835
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.181
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.891
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.583
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.727
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.981
Beta is 7.65% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.962
Beta is 9.77% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.13%
Sustainable growth rate is -28.92% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.091
Alpha is -7.73% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 580% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
XOM
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is 6.61% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.76%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.84%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.46%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.46%
WACC is 8.83% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$73.63
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.26
Annual revenue growth rate is 211.81% above the industry average
EPS:
$6.03
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
16.99%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -48.85% lower than the Oil & Gas Integrated industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.19
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 7.22%
Equity growth rate per share is -34.49% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$10.23
EBITDA per share
$14.59
Valuation Analysis Today of
XOM
P/E Ratio:
10.46
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.07
P/E ratio is 3.81% higher than main peers & is -27.97% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $87.53
XOM is 9.21% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $44.37
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $34.21
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.3
Price to sales ratio is -32.30% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.26
Price to free cash flow: 10.40
Price to free cash flow ratio is -15.26% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
9.59%
Net income growth rate is 1826.60% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 14.58%
Dividend yeild: 3.67%
Previous Dividend: $0.88
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.88
Previous Dividend: $3.51
Expected next dividend best case: $0.88
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.88
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.87
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.11%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.88
2021-11-10--$0.88
2021-05-12--$0.87
2022-02-09--$0.88
2021-08-12--$0.87
2021-02-09--$0.87
Dividend growth rate is -94.54% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
25.21%
Net debt to equity ratio:
21.55%
Debt to assets ratio:
12.02%
Net debt to assets ratio:
10.28%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -83.79% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
69.33
Interest coverage ratio is 218.94% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-27.68%
Annual debt growth is 59% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.69%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.572
Statistical significance of correlation:
XOM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.584
Stock price is -2.14% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.584
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.082
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.124
Kurtosis
3.356
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.035
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
XOM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
91%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.95%
Operating profit margin is -34.12% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
91%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.65%
Effective tax rate is 6.44% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.24%
Return on equity (ROE) is -2.81% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.27%
Return on assets (ROA) is 15.46% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.07
Current ratio is 110.07% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
42.2
Cash conversion cycle is 24.82% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
4.9M
Each employee generates 47% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
965.1K
Each employee generates 13% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
409.4K
Each employee generates 11% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
172.7K
Each employee generates 75% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.4M
Each employee generates 75% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
XOM
CHEVRON CORPORATION (XNYS:CVX)
RDS-B
RDS-A
TotalEnergies SE (XNYS:TTE)
CONOCOPHILLIPS (XNYS:COP)
BP
Equinor ASA (XNYS:EQNR)
Enbridge Inc. (XNYS:ENB)
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (XNYS:SNP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�21%
Hold�46%
Sell�21%
Strong sell�8%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
306.87B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
237.65B
69.22B
-
-
9.56B
-
32.20B
41.75B
-
877.00M
24.49B
60.80B
27.47B
25.79B
36.20B
9.65B
25.79B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
1.09B
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
7.95B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
14.79B
Investments in PP&E:
- 3911000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 417000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
11.07B
-
11.07B
42.14B
22.18B
1.86B
77.26B
212.77B
-
-
46.33B
-
18.41B
277.52B
-
354.77B
63.50B
4.89B
3.67B
-
3.67B
72.06B
42.65B
44.00B
106.19B
-
178.25B
15.88B
393.78B
- 12914000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
279.40B
169.22B
347.46B
-
47.54B
36.5B
-
383.00M
- 3945000.00K
- 2098000.00K
-
- 2067000.00K
- 3760000.00K
1.21B
- 6713000.00K
142.00M
4.27B
11.07B
6.80B
14.79B
- 3911000.00K
10.88B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
XOM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$100.18
$107.29
$114.91
$123.06
$131.79