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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Extra Space Storage Inc. (XNYS:EXR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EXR
Name:
EXTRA SPACE STORAGE INC. (XNYS:EXR)
Sector:
279.48M
Industry:
REIT�Industrial
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Margolis
Total Employees:
4,309
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 29.19% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EXTRA SPACE STORAGE INC.(EXR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
199.6
One Month Price Target:
$200.15
Six Month Price Target :
$202.9
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$206.2
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$199.14
Price Upper limit ($) :
$200.52
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$191.5
This week:
$181.48
This month :
$163.35
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
27.11B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
133.91M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
8.18%
-15.47%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$237.15
$219.56
$162.05
$179.64
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$213.84
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$210.08
$185.31
$189.12
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EXR
Sharpe Ratio:
5.20%
Comparison:
EXR, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 114.65% higher than the industry
& ratio is 128.00% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EXR
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.57%
Monthly returns:
2.29%
Yearly returns:
14.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 95.37% above industry average
Classification:
EXR, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.21
Statistical test of Returns:
EXR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.03%
Weekly Volatility:
4.55%
Monthly Volatility:
9.09%
Yearly Volatility:
31.49%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.34%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -34.07% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.06%
Weekly VaR:
-9.08%
Monthly VaR:
-18.16%
How Much Can the price of
EXR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-62.90%
This translates to price declining to:
$170.18
This translates to price declining to:
$74.04
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EXR is a 28.16% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 9.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.63% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EXR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.49
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.76
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.075
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.173
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.498
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.484
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.169
Beta is -57.91% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.735
Beta is -33.07% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.96%
Sustainable growth rate is -23.36% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.210
Alpha is 256.52% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1334% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EXR
Equity cost of capital:
0.065
Equity cost of capital is -20.34% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.30%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.69%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.12%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.12%
WACC is -28.79% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.41
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.89
Annual revenue growth rate is 53.18% above the industry average
EPS:
$6.17
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
23.70%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 165.06% higher than the REIT�Industrial industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.45
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 33.71%
Equity growth rate per share is 174.28% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$45.07
EBITDA per share
$9.46
Valuation Analysis Today of
EXR
P/E Ratio:
30.03
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
33.9
P/E ratio is -11.42% lower than main peers & is -55.39% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $415.37
EXR is -51.95% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $741.79
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $637.68
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
16.08
Price to sales ratio is 20.09% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.89
Price to free cash flow: 26.80
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
88.41%
Net income growth rate is 372.08% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 24.45%
Dividend yeild: 2.76%
Previous Dividend: $1.50
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.50
Previous Dividend: $5.50
Expected next dividend best case: $1.70
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.30
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.09
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.61%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$1.50
2021-12-14--$1.25
2021-06-14--$1.00
2022-03-14--$1.50
2021-09-14--$1.25
2021-03-12--$1.00
Dividend growth rate is -161.02% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
188.01%
Net debt to equity ratio:
192.81%
Debt to assets ratio:
56.98%
Net debt to assets ratio:
58.44%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -66.17% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.54
Interest coverage ratio is -15084.87% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.02%
Annual debt growth is -73% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 16.94%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.546
Statistical significance of correlation:
EXR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.617
Stock price is -11.44% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.617
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.05
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.059
Kurtosis
7.586
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.851
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EXR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
301%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
58.37%
Operating profit margin is 81.59% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
301%
Effective Tax Rate:
2.15%
Effective tax rate is 317.07% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
25.80%
Return on equity (ROE) is 210.61% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.82%
Return on assets (ROA) is 101.52% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.3x
Current Ratio:
0.17
Current ratio is -94.07% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-33.5
Cash conversion cycle is -283.65% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 19.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.55%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
385.7K
Each employee generates -77% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
294.0K
Each employee generates -79% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
192.2K
Each employee generates -72% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
64.9K
Each employee generates -66% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.4M
Each employee generates -66% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EXR
RITHM CAPITAL CORP. (XNYS:RITM)
INVITATION HOMES INC. (XNYS:INVH)
WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY (XNYS:WY)
Ke Holdings Inc (XNYS:BEKE)
DUKE REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:DRE)
SUN COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:SUI)
ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:ESS)
ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC. (XNYS:ARE)
EQUITY RESIDENTIAL (XNYS:EQR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�46%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.66B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
409.15M
1.25B
-
108.42M
108.42M
-
251.19M
359.60M
56.39M
168.03M
251.19M
1.27B
970.19M
828.23M
899.30M
19.33M
828.23M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
67.91M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.54M
Change in Working Capital :
2.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 4698.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
287.47M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7985.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 3979.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
65.98M
-
65.98M
-
-
6.69M
72.67M
236.96M
-
-
1.17B
-
9.11B
10.52B
-
10.59B
136.86M
220.00M
-
-
64.51M
421.36M
6.04B
256.72M
6.29B
-
6.71B
1.34M
- 127193.00K
6.5M
3.33B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
768.75M
3.21B
9.92B
-
6.26B
6.2B
-
- 109408.00K
- 121372.00K
- 1230924.00K
-
- 3375.00K
- 202527.00K
1.27B
- 169621.00K
-
- 3528.00K
72.67M
76.19M
287.47M
- 7985.00K
279.48M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EXR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$250.86
$259.16
$267.73
$276.58
$285.73