_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Exponent, Inc. (XNAS:EXPO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EXPO
Name:
EXPONENT, INC. (XNAS:EXPO)
Sector:
- 8958.00K
Industry:
Consulting Services
CEO:
Dr. Catherine Corrigan
Total Employees:
1,215
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -44.92% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EXPONENT, INC.(EXPO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CONSULTING SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
92.27
One Month Price Target:
$92.58
Six Month Price Target :
$94.11
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$95.95
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$92.01
Price Upper limit ($) :
$92.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$88.38
This week:
$83.58
This month :
$74.89
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.75B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
51.12M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.37%
-13.48%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$110.29
$101.96
$74.25
$82.58
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$99.24
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$97.46
$85.27
$87.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EXPO
Sharpe Ratio:
2.88%
Comparison:
EXPO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 33.80% higher than the industry
& ratio is 26.56% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EXPO
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.34%
Monthly returns:
1.38%
Yearly returns:
14.72%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 12.44% above industry average
Classification:
EXPO, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.63
Statistical test of Returns:
EXPO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.08%
Weekly Volatility:
4.66%
Monthly Volatility:
9.32%
Yearly Volatility:
32.29%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.12%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -46.25% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.21%
Weekly VaR:
-9.42%
Monthly VaR:
-18.83%
How Much Can the price of
EXPO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-65.24%
This translates to price declining to:
$77.63
This translates to price declining to:
$32.07
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EXPO is a 32.93% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 13.88% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.01% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EXPO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.59
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.579
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.819
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.58
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.464
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.591
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.39
Beta is -57.27% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.889
Beta is -33.21% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
14.89%
Sustainable growth rate is -6.14% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.093
Alpha is 70.33% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 594% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EXPO
Equity cost of capital:
0.072
Equity cost of capital is -21.89% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.05%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.12%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.10%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.10%
WACC is 8.23% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.36
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
12.2
Annual revenue growth rate is 11.81% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.88
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
6.79%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -32.53% lower than the Consulting Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.10
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 59.48%
Equity growth rate per share is 416.07% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.23
EBITDA per share
$2.64
Valuation Analysis Today of
EXPO
P/E Ratio:
48.75
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
134.27
P/E ratio is -63.69% lower than main peers & is 152.24% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $36.34
EXPO is 153.93% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $89.62
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $32.60
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9.86
Price to sales ratio is 188.02% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
12.2
Price to free cash flow: 44.02
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
40.75%
Net income growth rate is -60.87% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.52%
Dividend yeild: 0.95%
Previous Dividend: $0.24
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.24
Previous Dividend: $0.88
Expected next dividend best case: $0.26
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.22
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.40%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.24
2021-12-02--$0.20
2021-06-10--$0.20
2022-03-10--$0.24
2021-09-09--$0.20
2021-03-11--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is -32.39% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.01%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-51.24%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.89%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-32.08%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.75% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6431.38
Interest coverage ratio is 33555.30% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.464
Statistical significance of correlation:
EXPO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.51
Stock price is -9.05% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.51
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.021
Kurtosis
7.906
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.074
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EXPO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
25.42%
Operating profit margin is 123.89% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
22.22%
Effective tax rate is 12.62% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
25.86%
Return on equity (ROE) is 25.04% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
16.19%
Return on assets (ROA) is 119.31% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
3.45
Current ratio is 109.33% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.87%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
393.6K
Each employee generates 21% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
111.2K
Each employee generates 35% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
82.3K
Each employee generates 74% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 7.4K
Each employee generates -17% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
198.2K
Each employee generates -17% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EXPO
RBC BEARINGS INCORPORATED (XNAS:ROLL)
51job, Inc. (XNAS:JOBS)
UPWORK INC. (XNAS:UPWK)
FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ULCC)
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHFAL)
ALTRA INDUSTRIAL MOTION CORP. (XNAS:AIMC)
CARSALES.COM LIMITED (XASX:CAR)
KORNIT DIGITAL LTD (XNAS:KRNT)
CHART INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:GTLS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/1/22
Revenue:
478.27M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
288.51M
288.51M
-
68.17M
356.68M
58.00K
21.00K
6.52M
135.06M
121.59M
99.96M
128.52M
28.56M
99.96M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.69M
Differed Income Tax :
45.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.87M
Change in Working Capital :
- 45251.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 8333.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 4093.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
686.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 6352.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/1/22
2022
Q1
215.05M
-
215.05M
147.51M
-
14.13M
376.69M
77.98M
8.61M
-
-
46.50M
107.77M
240.86M
-
617.55M
30.84M
5.31M
-
15.67M
57.29M
109.11M
11.65M
110.22M
121.87M
-
230.98M
66.00K
493.39M
- 2293.0K
-
April 1, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
356.68M
386.56M
617.55M
-
16.96M
- 198086.0K
-
- 2606.00K
- 2606.00K
-
-
- 48554.00K
- 12514.00K
- 12340.00K
- 73408.00K
- 271.00K
- 82637.00K
215.05M
297.69M
- 6352.00K
- 2606.00K
- 8958.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EXPO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$96.43
$157.89
$164.20
$170.75
$177.56