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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Expeditors International Of Washington, Inc (XNAS:EXPD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EXPD
Name:
EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON, INC (XNAS:EXPD)
Sector:
399.53M
Industry:
Integrated Freight & Logistics
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey Musser
Total Employees:
19,070
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -94.10% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON, INC(EXPD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
101.68
One Month Price Target:
$102.17
Six Month Price Target :
$104.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$107.59
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$101.44
Price Upper limit ($) :
$102.05
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$98.04
This week:
$93.53
This month :
$85.38
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
16.46B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
163.60M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.94%
-9.84%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$118.58
$110.76
$84.78
$92.60
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$108.21
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$106.54
$95.13
$96.82
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EXPD
Sharpe Ratio:
2.95%
Comparison:
EXPD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -5.96% lower than the industry
& ratio is 29.35% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EXPD
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.22%
Yearly returns:
21.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -30.80% below industry average
Classification:
EXPD, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.53
Statistical test of Returns:
EXPD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.77%
Weekly Volatility:
3.97%
Monthly Volatility:
7.94%
Yearly Volatility:
27.49%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.23%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -30.59% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.58%
Weekly VaR:
-8.01%
Monthly VaR:
-16.03%
How Much Can the price of
EXPD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-13%
Worst case (decline):
-55.52%
This translates to price declining to:
$87.98
This translates to price declining to:
$45.23
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EXPD is a 13.11% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -3.10% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -29.34% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EXPD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.87
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.648
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.916
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.805
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.596
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.485
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.421
Beta is -39.12% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.068
Beta is -18.98% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
33.25%
Sustainable growth rate is 20.48% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.056
Alpha is -47.87% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 357% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EXPD
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -13.26% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.45%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.86%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.47%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.47%
WACC is 9.87% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$109.96
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.32
Annual revenue growth rate is 14.17% above the industry average
EPS:
$8.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
33.83%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -11.10% lower than the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.27
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 28.50%
Equity growth rate per share is 352.31% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$2.35
EBITDA per share
$12.59
Valuation Analysis Today of
EXPD
P/E Ratio:
11.22
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
41.38
P/E ratio is -72.90% lower than main peers & is -30.09% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $138.60
EXPD is -26.64% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $157.29
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $87.11
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.92
Price to sales ratio is -41.75% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.32
Price to free cash flow: 19.28
Price to free cash flow ratio is -78.14% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
135.72%
Net income growth rate is -37.32% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 2.31%
Previous Dividend: $0.67
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.67
Previous Dividend: $2.35
Expected next dividend best case: $0.76
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.58
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.56
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 6.21%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.67
2021-05-28--$0.58
2020-05-29--$0.52
2021-11-30--$0.58
2020-11-30--$0.52
2019-11-29--$0.50
Dividend growth rate is -339.32% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
10.01%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-43.45%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.84%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-20.99%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.49% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
235.28
Interest coverage ratio is 543.97% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
6.73%
Annual debt growth is -86% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.681
Statistical significance of correlation:
EXPD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.551
Stock price is 23.62% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.551
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.007
Kurtosis
7.337
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.069
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EXPD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
51%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.04%
Operating profit margin is 125.27% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
51%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.18%
Effective tax rate is 11.92% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
38.36%
Return on equity (ROE) is 18.93% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
18.53%
Return on assets (ROA) is -372.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.87
Current ratio is -10.23% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
83.4
Cash conversion cycle is -85.46% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.79%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
943.3K
Each employee generates -6% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
108.0K
Each employee generates 61% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
77.3K
Each employee generates 186% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
21.0K
Each employee generates 93% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
52.1K
Each employee generates 93% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EXPD
J. B. HUNT TRANSPORT SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:JBHT)
RYANAIR HOLDINGS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:RYAAY)
BNGOW
Kanzhun Ltd (XNAS:BZ)
ICAHN ENTERPRISES UNT (XNAS:IEP)
BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE, INC. (XNYS:BLDR)
PLUG POWER INC. (XNAS:PLUG)
C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC. (XNAS:CHRW)
NORDSON CORPORATION (XNAS:NDSN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�42%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
17.99B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
15.72B
2.27B
-
-
17.00M
17.00M
267.02M
284.02M
8.75M
8.75M
51.30M
2.06B
1.99B
1.47B
2.01B
524.96M
1.47B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.98M
Differed Income Tax :
- 3236.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
11.60M
Change in Working Capital :
43.09M
Accounts Receivables:
- 132348.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 11017.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
39.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
413.95M
Investments in PP&E:
- 14412.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.14B
-
2.14B
3.93B
-
888.25M
6.96B
962.76M
7.93M
-
-
5.57M
17.00M
993.26M
-
7.96B
1.98B
85.08M
96.21M
952.37M
704.09M
3.72B
384.69M
-
384.69M
-
4.11B
1.68M
3.97B
- 137429.0K
13.34M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
16.00B
3.84B
7.95B
-
469.77M
- 1669860.0K
-
79.00K
- 14333.00K
-
5.75M
-
-
12.01M
17.76M
- 6438.00K
410.93M
2.14B
1.73B
413.95M
- 14412.00K
399.53M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EXPD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$108.13
$232.03
$245.52
$259.79
$274.90