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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Expedia Group, Inc. (XNAS:EXPE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EXPE
Name:
EXPEDIA GROUP, INC. (XNAS:EXPE)
Sector:
2.84B
Industry:
Travel Services
CEO:
Mr. Mark Okerstrom
Total Employees:
14,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1104.29% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EXPEDIA GROUP, INC.(EXPE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRAVEL SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
102.1
One Month Price Target:
$103.01
Six Month Price Target :
$107.57
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$113.03
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$101.54
Price Upper limit ($) :
$102.76
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$94.74
This week:
$85.65
This month :
$69.2
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
15.89B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
157.56M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
24.57%
-21.44%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$136.24
$120.61
$67.96
$83.59
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$115.52
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$112.18
$88.64
$92.02
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EXPE
Sharpe Ratio:
1.13%
Comparison:
EXPE, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 321.22% higher than the industry
& is -50.47% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EXPE
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.24%
Monthly returns:
0.97%
Yearly returns:
3.35%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 249.17% above industry average
Classification:
EXPE, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.38
Statistical test of Returns:
EXPE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.53%
Weekly Volatility:
7.90%
Monthly Volatility:
15.79%
Yearly Volatility:
54.71%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.59%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -83.37% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.20%
Weekly VaR:
-16.11%
Monthly VaR:
-32.22%
How Much Can the price of
EXPE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$73.58
This translates to price declining to:
$15.32
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EXPE is a 127.40% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 94.81% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -22.57% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EXPE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.59
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.015
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.435
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.274
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.031
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.946
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.475
Beta is 8.05% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.849
Beta is -13.84% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.99%
Sustainable growth rate is -77.04% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.024
Alpha is -80.98% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -151% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EXPE
Equity cost of capital:
0.141
Equity cost of capital is -11.08% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.42%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.06%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.63%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.63%
WACC is 16.49% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$60.94
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.51
Annual revenue growth rate is 2.81% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.25
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$24.59
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -64.23%
Equity growth rate per share is 92.89% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$51.21
EBITDA per share
$8.40
Valuation Analysis Today of
EXPE
P/E Ratio:
20.36
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
23.4
P/E ratio is -12.98% lower than main peers & is -95.92% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $624.19
EXPE is -83.64% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $10.71
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $4.83
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.68
Price to sales ratio is -80.94% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.51
Price to free cash flow: 4.15
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-96.33%
Net income growth rate is -172.25% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.67%
Previous Dividend: $0.34
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.34
Previous Dividend: $0.68
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.34
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 26/03/2020
Previous dividend record date: 03/10/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 18/02/2020
Dividend History:
2020-03-09--$0.34
--$0.00
--$0.00
2019-11-18--$0.34
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
388.31%
Net debt to equity ratio:
121.13%
Debt to assets ratio:
32.83%
Net debt to assets ratio:
10.24%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -60.48% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.98
Interest coverage ratio is -384.32% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.73%
Annual debt growth is -121% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.23%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.596
Statistical significance of correlation:
EXPE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.558
Stock price is 6.84% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.558
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.019
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.039
Kurtosis
8.538
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.354
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EXPE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
333%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.37%
Operating profit margin is -101.21% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
333%
Effective Tax Rate:
-24.01%
Effective tax rate is -129.21% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.95%
Return on equity (ROE) is -137.14% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.94%
Return on assets (ROA) is -116.87% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.89
Current ratio is -44.07% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-265
Cash conversion cycle is -403.21% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
18.87%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
648.7K
Each employee generates 128% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
89.5K
Each employee generates -1169% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
32.2K
Each employee generates -147% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
191.6K
Each employee generates 854% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
907.4K
Each employee generates 854% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -100.00%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 200.31% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
EXPE
TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY (XNAS:TSCO)
American Lithium Corp. (XTSX:LI)
ETSY, INC. (XNAS:ETSY)
POOL CORPORATION (XNAS:POOL)
CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNAS:CZR)
ROSS STORES, INC. (XNAS:ROST)
LKQ CORPORATION (XNAS:LKQ)
Trip.com Group Limited (XNAS:TCOM)
OLAPLEX HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:OLPX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�75%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
9.60B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.59B
8.01B
1.10B
735.00M
5.63B
4.90B
329.00M
7.06B
10.00M
166.00M
802.00M
1.32B
420.00M
477.00M
504.00M
- 121000.00K
477.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
197.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 101000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
90.00M
Change in Working Capital :
2.91B
Accounts Receivables:
- 476000.00K
Other Working Capital:
3.52B
Other Non-Cash Items:
19.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.99B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 337000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
5.55B
-
5.55B
1.83B
-
3.77B
11.15B
2.56B
7.17B
1.37B
1.47B
864.00M
-
13.43B
-
24.58B
1.29B
-
19.00M
9.38B
1.80B
12.47B
8.07B
414.00M
8.54B
-
21.01B
-
- 1883000.00K
- 161000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
8.64B
2.08B
23.09B
-
8.07B
2.5B
537.00M
- 187000.00K
13.00M
- 724000.00K
-
- 47000.00K
-
108.00M
- 663000.00K
- 11000.00K
2.33B
8.14B
5.81B
2.99B
- 156000.00K
2.84B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EXPE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$84.32
$93.35
$103.34
$114.41
$126.66