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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Exp World Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:EXPI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EXPI
Name:
EXP WORLD HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EXPI)
Sector:
106.82M
Industry:
Real Estate Services
CEO:
Mr. Glenn Darrel Sanford
Total Employees:
1,669
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -677.53% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EXP WORLD HOLDINGS, INC.(EXPI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REAL ESTATE SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
12.6
One Month Price Target:
$12.82
Six Month Price Target :
$13.9
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$15.2
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$12.52
Price Upper limit ($) :
$12.75
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$11.25
This week:
$9.59
This month :
$6.58
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.86B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
151.80M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
35.95%
-26.21%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.84
$15.93
$6.36
$9.27
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$14.98
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.36
$10.21
$10.84
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EXPI
Sharpe Ratio:
4.62%
Comparison:
EXPI, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 183.57% higher than the industry
& ratio is 102.59% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EXPI
Daily returns:
0.25%
Weekly returns:
1.27%
Monthly returns:
5.10%
Yearly returns:
16.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 272.01% above industry average
Classification:
EXPI, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.31
Statistical test of Returns:
EXPI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.33%
Weekly Volatility:
11.91%
Monthly Volatility:
23.82%
Yearly Volatility:
82.50%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.85%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.03% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.68%
Weekly VaR:
-23.89%
Monthly VaR:
-47.77%
How Much Can the price of
EXPI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.65
This translates to price declining to:
$1.89
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EXPI is a 237.19% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 188.87% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 51.84% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EXPI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--3.08
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.599
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.262
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
3.05
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.578
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.8
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.566
Beta is 96.42% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.462
Beta is 110.34% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
38.32%
Sustainable growth rate is 58.04% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.369
Alpha is 1029.34% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2350% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EXPI
Equity cost of capital:
0.242
Equity cost of capital is 83.94% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
24.02%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$27.66
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.79
Annual revenue growth rate is 352.15% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.54
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.65
-
-
Debt per share
$0.01
EBITDA per share
$0.26
Valuation Analysis Today of
EXPI
P/E Ratio:
34.37
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
537.88
P/E ratio is -93.61% lower than main peers & is 14.18% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $16.26
EXPI is -22.49% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.09
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $0.66
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.46
Price to sales ratio is -91.29% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.79
Price to free cash flow: 7.62
Price to free cash flow ratio is -47.99% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-384.48%
Net income growth rate is -1086.26% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.87%
Dividend yeild: 1.27%
Previous Dividend: $0.04
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.04
Previous Dividend: $0.16
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.04
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 28/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 29/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$0.04
2021-11-12--$0.04
--$0.00
2022-03-10--$0.04
2021-08-13--$0.04
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.32%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-52.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.16%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-25.70%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.71% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.436
Statistical significance of correlation:
EXPI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.544
Stock price is -19.79% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.544
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.062
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.191
Kurtosis
3.993
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.339
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EXPI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
31%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.80%
Operating profit margin is -92.06% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
31%
Effective Tax Rate:
-163.46%
Effective tax rate is -960.66% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
34.89%
Return on equity (ROE) is 198.41% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
16.98%
Return on assets (ROA) is 251.80% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.58
Current ratio is -78.70% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
11.9
Cash conversion cycle is 62.14% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
58.42%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.5M
Each employee generates 185% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
23.6K
Each employee generates -91% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
51.1K
Each employee generates -34% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
64.0K
Each employee generates -155% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
61.6K
Each employee generates -155% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EXPI
POTLATCHDELTIC CORPORATION (XNAS:PCH)
SABRA HEALTH CARE REIT, INC. (XNAS:SBRA)
Colliers International Group Inc. (XNAS:CIGI)
NEWMARK GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NMRK)
REDFIN CORPORATION (XNAS:RDFN)
CARETRUST REIT, INC. (XNYS:CTRE)
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENTS CORP. (XNAS:ROIC)
SERVICE PROPERTIES TRUST (XNAS:SVC)
NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (XNAS:NYMT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.20B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.87B
326.01M
-
278.72M
292.34M
13.62M
-
292.34M
-
-
6.90M
39.31M
33.67M
85.26M
32.33M
- 52847.00K
85.26M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.96M
Differed Income Tax :
- 5901.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
49.81M
Change in Working Capital :
55.88M
Accounts Receivables:
- 9846.00K
Other Working Capital:
49.30M
Other Non-Cash Items:
897.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
111.51M
Investments in PP&E:
- 4684.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
130.09M
-
130.09M
142.96M
-
126.29M
399.34M
21.41M
12.95M
7.20M
-
58.73M
2.51M
102.80M
-
502.14M
7.19M
238.00K
-
116.94M
128.74M
253.11M
779.00K
2.71M
3.49M
-
256.60M
2.00K
33.53M
229.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.16B
244.37M
500.97M
-
1.02M
- 129075.0K
-
-
- 4684.00K
-
-
- 29956.00K
- 5859.00K
72.00K
- 35743.00K
41.00K
71.12M
247.03M
175.91M
111.51M
- 4684.00K
106.82M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EXPI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$15.28
$104.69
$126.33
$152.44
$183.94