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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Exlservice Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:EXLS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EXLS
Name:
EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EXLS)
Sector:
- 42971.00K
Industry:
Information Technology Services
CEO:
Mr. Rohit Kapoor
Total Employees:
37,400
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -91.66% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC.(EXLS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
164.68
One Month Price Target:
$165.53
Six Month Price Target :
$169.77
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$174.86
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$164.23
Price Upper limit ($) :
$165.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$156.31
This week:
$145.96
This month :
$127.23
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.58B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
33.06M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.6%
-21.32%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$203.47
$185.24
$125.89
$144.12
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$179.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$175.42
$150.00
$153.94
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EXLS
Sharpe Ratio:
5.89%
Comparison:
EXLS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 224.77% higher than the industry
& ratio is 158.22% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EXLS
Daily returns:
0.16%
Weekly returns:
0.80%
Monthly returns:
3.18%
Yearly returns:
14.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 164.57% above industry average
Classification:
EXLS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.34
Statistical test of Returns:
EXLS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.55%
Weekly Volatility:
5.71%
Monthly Volatility:
11.42%
Yearly Volatility:
39.56%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.30%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -49.05% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.08%
Weekly VaR:
-11.37%
Monthly VaR:
-22.74%
How Much Can the price of
EXLS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-78.78%
This translates to price declining to:
$134.58
This translates to price declining to:
$34.95
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EXLS is a 60.50% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.50% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.84% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EXLS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.92
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.679
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.961
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.675
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.63
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.854
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.277
Beta is -27.95% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.209
Beta is -23.88% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
16.61%
Sustainable growth rate is -88.84% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.287
Alpha is 856.05% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1829% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EXLS
Equity cost of capital:
0.095
Equity cost of capital is -17.30% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.94%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.57%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.24%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.24%
WACC is -16.44% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$35.99
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.77
Annual revenue growth rate is 67.44% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.49
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
19.36%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 470.73% higher than the Information Technology Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.02
-
-
Debt per share
$9.87
EBITDA per share
$7.13
Valuation Analysis Today of
EXLS
P/E Ratio:
44.12
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
162.36
P/E ratio is -72.83% lower than main peers & is -7.06% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $165.66
EXLS is -0.59% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.58
Price to sales ratio is 25.28% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.77
Price to free cash flow: 54.54
Price to free cash flow ratio is 26.29% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
108.36%
Net income growth rate is -99.86% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
46.61%
Net debt to equity ratio:
39.17%
Debt to assets ratio:
25.61%
Net debt to assets ratio:
21.52%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -59.64% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
39.53
Interest coverage ratio is -5.38% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.76%
Annual debt growth is -20% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.522
Statistical significance of correlation:
EXLS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
Stock price is -12.46% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.041
Kurtosis
17.768
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.881
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EXLS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
152%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.30%
Operating profit margin is -291.58% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
152%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.30%
Effective tax rate is -15.55% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.99%
Return on equity (ROE) is -69.79% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.34%
Return on assets (ROA) is 10837.82% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.58
Current ratio is 11.33% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
59.5
Cash conversion cycle is 58.83% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 20.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
9.43%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
31.8K
Each employee generates -92% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
6.3K
Each employee generates -86% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
3.2K
Each employee generates -63% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 1.1K
Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
18.8K
Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EXLS
BLACKBAUD, INC. (XNAS:BLKB)
ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ALKT)
DIODES INCORPORATED (XNAS:DIOD)
PS
FATBW
COMMVAULT SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CVLT)
JFROG LTD (XNAS:FROG)
AMBARELLA INC (XNAS:AMBA)
Cerence Inc. (XNAS:CRNC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�13%
Hold�17%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.19B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
739.63M
450.46M
-
151.28M
241.52M
90.24M
50.63M
292.16M
2.82M
5.96M
76.67M
235.73M
158.30M
119.01M
152.90M
34.09M
119.01M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
19.71M
Differed Income Tax :
- 193.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
11.22M
Change in Working Capital :
- 90981.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 45659.00K
Other Working Capital:
3.71M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2810.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 26870.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 16101.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 1367.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 36804.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
106.54M
162.69M
269.23M
255.59M
-
47.79M
572.62M
160.76M
404.56M
76.58M
3.30M
22.45M
34.29M
701.93M
-
1.27B
4.80M
54.45M
1.26M
22.57M
140.31M
222.12M
326.41M
22.68M
352.09M
-
574.21M
40.00K
792.32M
- 98306.0K
6.29M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.03B
700.34M
1.27B
166.00M
380.86M
274.3M
49.52M
63.00K
- 4694.00K
- 39.00K
-
- 31385.00K
-
35.00M
3.58M
- 753.00K
- 28741.00K
115.07M
143.81M
- 26870.00K
- 16101.00K
- 42971.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EXLS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$175.73
$344.37
$365.66
$388.26
$412.27