RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Exlservice Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:EXLS) InDepth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EXLS
Name:
EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EXLS)
Sector:
 42971.00K
Industry:
Information Technology Services
CEO:
Mr. Rohit Kapoor
Total Employees:
37,400
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is 91.66% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONGTERM ANALYSIS OF EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC.(EXLS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
164.68
One Month Price Target:
$165.53
Six Month Price Target :
$169.77
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$174.86
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$164.23
Price Upper limit ($) :
$165.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$156.31
This week:
$145.96
This month :
$127.23
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.58B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
33.06M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.6%
21.32%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$203.47
$185.24
$125.89
$144.12
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$179.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$175.42
$150.00
$153.94
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
RiskAdjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EXLS
Sharpe Ratio:
5.89%
Comparison:
EXLS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest riskadjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 224.77% higher than the industry
& ratio is 158.22% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EXLS
Daily returns:
0.16%
Weekly returns:
0.80%
Monthly returns:
3.18%
Yearly returns:
14.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 164.57% above industry average
Classification:
EXLS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of TTest of Returns:
0.34
Statistical test of Returns:
EXLS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.55%
Weekly Volatility:
5.71%
Monthly Volatility:
11.42%
Yearly Volatility:
39.56%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.30%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 49.05% below longterm volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
5.08%
Weekly VaR:
11.37%
Monthly VaR:
22.74%
How Much Can the price of
EXLS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
18%
Worst case (decline):
78.78%
This translates to price declining to:
$134.58
This translates to price declining to:
$34.95
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EXLS is a 60.50% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.50% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 15.84% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EXLS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 5000.92
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.679
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.961
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.675
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.63
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.854
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.277
Beta is 27.95% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.209
Beta is 23.88% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
16.61%
Sustainable growth rate is 88.84% below industry average
Alpha provided  Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.287
Alpha is 856.05% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1829% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EXLS
Equity cost of capital:
0.095
Equity cost of capital is 17.30% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.94%
Beforetax cost of debt:
1.57%
Aftertax cost of debt:
1.24%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.24%
WACC is 16.44% below industry mean WACC
Key PerShare Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$35.99
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.77
Annual revenue growth rate is 67.44% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.49
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
19.36%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 470.73% higher than the Information Technology Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.02


Debt per share
$9.87
EBITDA per share
$7.13
Valuation Analysis Today of
EXLS
P/E Ratio:
44.12
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
162.36
P/E ratio is 72.83% lower than main peers & is 7.06% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $165.66
EXLS is 0.59% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio


P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.58
Price to sales ratio is 25.28% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.77
Price to free cash flow: 54.54
Price to free cash flow ratio is 26.29% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
108.36%
Net income growth rate is 99.86% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis















Dividend History:
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00

Indepth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
46.61%
Net debt to equity ratio:
39.17%
Debt to assets ratio:
25.61%
Net debt to assets ratio:
21.52%
Debttoasset ratio is 59.64% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
39.53
Interest coverage ratio is 5.38% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.76%
Annual debt growth is 20% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.522
Statistical significance of correlation:
EXLS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
Stock price is 12.46% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.041
Kurtosis
17.768
Returns have severe fattails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.881
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EXLS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
152%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.30%
Operating profit margin is 291.58% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
152%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.30%
Effective tax rate is 15.55% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.99%
Return on equity (ROE) is 69.79% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.34%
Return on assets (ROA) is 10837.82% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.58
Current ratio is 11.33% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
59.5
Cash conversion cycle is 58.83% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 20.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
9.43%
Indepth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
31.8K
Each employee generates 92% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
6.3K
Each employee generates 86% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
3.2K
Each employee generates 63% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
 1.1K
Each employee generates 83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
18.8K
Each employee generates 83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis


Competitors/Peer firms of
EXLS
BLACKBAUD, INC. (XNAS:BLKB)
ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ALKT)
DIODES INCORPORATED (XNAS:DIOD)
PS
FATBW
COMMVAULT SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CVLT)
JFROG LTD (XNAS:FROG)
AMBARELLA INC (XNAS:AMBA)
Cerence Inc. (XNAS:CRNC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�13%