top of page

Exlservice Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:EXLS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

EXLS

Name:

EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EXLS)

Sector:

- 42971.00K

Industry:

Information Technology Services

CEO:

Mr. Rohit Kapoor

Total Employees:

37,400

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

D

Technological advancement compared to industry is -91.66% lower

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC.(EXLS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

164.68

One Month Price Target:

$165.53

Six Month Price Target :

$169.77

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$174.86

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
 

$164.23

Price Upper limit ($) :

$165.66

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$156.31

                                                               This week:

$145.96

                                                        This month :

$127.23

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

5.58B

Market Cap Classification:

Mid Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

33.06M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
 

Highest Daily Appreciation:

18.6%

-21.32%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$203.47

$185.24

$125.89

$144.12

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$179.31

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$175.42

$150.00

$153.94

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

EXLS

Sharpe Ratio:

5.89%

Comparison:

EXLS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is 224.77% higher than the industry

& ratio is 158.22% higher than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

EXLS

Daily returns:

0.16%

Weekly returns:

0.80%

Monthly returns:

3.18%

Yearly returns:

14.44%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 164.57% above industry average

Classification:

EXLS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.34

Statistical test of Returns:

EXLS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market

SHARPE ratio explained.png

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

2.55%

Weekly Volatility:

5.71%

Monthly Volatility:

11.42%

Yearly Volatility:

39.56%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation) 

Average Volatility of this Week:

1.30%

Volatility in last five trading days has been -49.05% below long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-5.08%

Weekly VaR:

-11.37%

Monthly VaR:

-22.74%

How Much Can the price of

EXLS

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession: 

Base case (decline):

-18%

Worst case (decline):

-78.78%

This translates to price declining to:

$134.58

This translates to price declining to:

$34.95

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

VaR explained figure

Risk Fundamentals

EXLS is a 60.50% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.50% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.84% below industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

EXLS

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.92

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

0.679

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

0.961

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

0.675

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

0.63

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

0.854

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

1.277

Beta is -27.95% lower than peers

Average Industry Beta: 

1.209

Beta is -23.88% below industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

16.61%

Sustainable growth rate is -88.84% below industry average

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis 

Alpha provided:

0.287

Alpha is 856.05% above industry average alpha yield

Alpha is 1829% higher than market/& is unsustainably high

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

EXLS

Equity cost of capital:

0.095

Equity cost of capital is -17.30% below industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:  

6.94%

Before-tax cost of debt:

1.57%

After-tax cost of debt:

1.24%

Overall debt rating:

Highest AAA investment grade

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

1.24%

WACC is -16.44% below industry mean WACC

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$35.99

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

7.77

Annual revenue growth rate is 67.44% above the industry average

EPS:

$3.49

Expected Annual growth rate of  EPS (3Y):

19.36%

Expected future EPS growth rate is 470.73% higher than the Information Technology Services industry

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

$3.02

-

-

Debt per share

$9.87

EBITDA per share

$7.13

Valuation Analysis Today of

EXLS

P/E Ratio:

44.12

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

162.36

P/E ratio is -72.83% lower than main peers & is -7.06% lower than the industry

Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $165.66

EXLS is -0.59% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

-

-

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

4.58

Price to sales ratio is 25.28% above the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

7.77

Price to free cash flow: 54.54

Price to free cash flow ratio is 26.29% higher than the industry

Net income growth rate (3Y):

108.36%

Net income growth rate is -99.86% lower than the industry average net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Dividend History:

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

-

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

46.61%

Net debt to equity ratio:

39.17%

Debt to assets ratio:

25.61%

Net debt to assets ratio:

21.52%

Debt-to-asset ratio is -59.64% below industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

39.53

Interest coverage ratio is -5.38% less than industry average

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

4.76%

Annual debt growth is -20% lower than industry average debt growth rate

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%

Analysis of Key Statistics  

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.522

Statistical significance of correlation:

EXLS has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of  the industry with the market:

0.596

Stock price is -12.46% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market): 

0.596

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

0.027

Covariance  of price movement with the market:

0.041

Kurtosis 

17.768

Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns

Skewness of returns:

-0.881

Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

EXLS

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

152%

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

13.30%

Operating profit margin is -291.58% lower than the industry

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

152%

Effective Tax Rate:

22.30%

Effective tax rate is -15.55% lower than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

×

ROA

=

×

16.99%

Return on equity (ROE) is -69.79% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

9.34%

Return on assets (ROA) is 10837.82% higher than the industry

Financial Leverage:

1.3x

Current Ratio:

2.58

Current ratio is 11.33% above industry average

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

59.5

Cash conversion cycle is 58.83% above industry average

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 20.5 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

9.43%

In-depth Efficiency  Analysis

Revenue generated per employee:

31.8K

Each employee generates -92% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee

EBITDA generated per employee: 

6.3K

Each employee generates -86% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee

Profit generated per employee: 

3.2K

Each employee generates -63% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee

Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee: 

- 1.1K

Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Assets/Capital per employee

18.8K

Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Research & Development (R&D) Analysis

-

-

Competitors/Peer firms of 

EXLS

BLACKBAUD, INC. (XNAS:BLKB)

ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ALKT)

DIODES INCORPORATED (XNAS:DIOD)

PS

FATBW

COMMVAULT SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CVLT)

JFROG LTD (XNAS:FROG)

AMBARELLA INC (XNAS:AMBA)

Cerence Inc. (XNAS:CRNC)

Current Analyst Ratings

Strong buy�21%

Buy�13%