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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Exelon Corporation (XNAS:EXC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EXC
Name:
EXELON CORPORATION (XNAS:EXC)
Sector:
- 140000.00K
Industry:
Utilities�Diversified
CEO:
Mr. Christopher Crane
Total Employees:
31,518
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -1754.92% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EXELON CORPORATION(EXC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
44.08
One Month Price Target:
$44.2
Six Month Price Target :
$44.81
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$45.54
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$43.95
Price Upper limit ($) :
$44.27
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$42.19
This week:
$39.85
This month :
$35.61
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
43.60B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
993.45M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.99%
-16.09%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$52.86
$48.80
$35.30
$39.36
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$47.48
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.61
$40.67
$41.55
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EXC
Sharpe Ratio:
2.94%
Comparison:
EXC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 71.53% higher than the industry
& ratio is 29.01% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EXC
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.36%
Monthly returns:
1.43%
Yearly returns:
11.80%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 45.12% above industry average
Classification:
EXC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.47
Statistical test of Returns:
EXC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.13%
Weekly Volatility:
4.75%
Monthly Volatility:
9.51%
Yearly Volatility:
32.94%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.37%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -35.44% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.30%
Weekly VaR:
-9.60%
Monthly VaR:
-19.21%
How Much Can the price of
EXC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-66.54%
This translates to price declining to:
$36.95
This translates to price declining to:
$14.75
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EXC is a 35.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 16.15% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -5.28% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EXC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.49
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.467
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.66
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.222
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.682
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.918
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.819
Beta is -39.87% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.572
Beta is -13.90% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
1.85%
Sustainable growth rate is -60.44% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.106
Alpha is 123.94% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 675% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EXC
Equity cost of capital:
0.065
Equity cost of capital is -7.71% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.94%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.86%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.05%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.05%
WACC is -13.90% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$31.99
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.86
Annual revenue growth rate is -103.36% below industry average
EPS:
$2.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-16.79%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -727.20% lower than the Utilities�Diversified industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 11.01%
Equity growth rate per share is 689.89% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$35.63
EBITDA per share
$11.29
Valuation Analysis Today of
EXC
P/E Ratio:
17.03
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
30.91
P/E ratio is -44.90% lower than main peers & is -76.19% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $188.83
EXC is -76.66% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $37.61
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $20.06
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.38
Price to sales ratio is -54.18% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.86
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-16.16%
Net income growth rate is -49.25% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.81%
Dividend yeild: 3.27%
Previous Dividend: $0.34
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.34
Previous Dividend: $1.44
Expected next dividend best case: $0.35
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.32
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.37
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -0.61%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.34
2021-11-12--$0.27
2021-05-13--$0.38
2022-02-24--$0.34
2021-08-12--$0.27
2021-03-05--$0.38
Dividend growth rate is -120.33% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
150.69%
Net debt to equity ratio:
157.40%
Debt to assets ratio:
38.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
39.89%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -42.67% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.37
Interest coverage ratio is 139.40% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
7.84%
Annual debt growth is -93% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.90%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.72
Statistical significance of correlation:
EXC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.609
Stock price is 18.21% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.609
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.063
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.078
Kurtosis
18.211
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.447
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EXC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
135%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.78%
Operating profit margin is 67.69% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
135%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.03%
Effective tax rate is -41.03% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.03%
Return on equity (ROE) is 38.33% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.80%
Return on assets (ROA) is 30.45% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.94
Current ratio is -77.12% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-0.2
Cash conversion cycle is -100.26% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates 13% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
355.8K
Each employee generates 67% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
82.2K
Each employee generates 69% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4.4K
Each employee generates -73% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.7M
Each employee generates -73% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EXC
Xcel Energy Inc. (XNAS:XEL)
ALLIANT ENERGY CORPORATION (XNAS:LNT)
NEW FORTRESS ENERGY INC. (XNAS:NFE)
MGE ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:MGEE)
Otter Tail Corporation (XNAS:OTTR)
RENEW ENERGY GLOBAL PLC (XNAS:RNW)
MIDDLESEX WATER COMPANY (XNAS:MSEX)
Fluence Energy Inc (XNAS:FLNC)
THE YORK WATER COMPANY (XNAS:YORW)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�33%
Hold�8%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
31.78B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
21.33B
10.45B
-
-
-
-
6.84B
6.84B
-
1.52B
6.49B
11.21B
3.74B
2.59B
3.19B
607.00M
2.59B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.02B
Differed Income Tax :
110.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 1437000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 711000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 1142000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.49B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.78B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 516000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.48B
-
2.48B
3.04B
512.00M
2.11B
8.15B
65.47B
6.63B
-
244.00M
-
12.21B
84.55B
-
92.70B
2.18B
4.05B
-
13.00M
2.39B
8.64B
35.40B
14.04B
60.57B
-
69.21B
20.30B
4.03B
- 713000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
28.17B
23.49B
92.70B
-
39.45B
37.0B
488.00M
- 1791000.00K
- 1819000.00K
- 1056000.00K
-
-
- 332000.00K
2.80B
1.42B
-
1.38B
3.00B
1.62B
1.78B
- 1922000.00K
- 140000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EXC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$54.79
$56.61
$58.48
$60.41
$62.41