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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Exelixis, Inc. (XNAS:EXEL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EXEL
Name:
EXELIXIS, INC. (XNAS:EXEL)
Sector:
142.11M
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Michael Morrissey
Total Employees:
954
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -98.20% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EXELIXIS, INC.(EXEL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.91
One Month Price Target:
$17.98
Six Month Price Target :
$18.31
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.7
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.83
Price Upper limit ($) :
$18.01
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$16.83
This week:
$15.49
This month :
$13.07
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.59B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
321.83M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.27%
-23.06%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.93
$20.63
$12.89
$15.19
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.88
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.39
$15.93
$16.43
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EXEL
Sharpe Ratio:
1.28%
Comparison:
EXEL, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -34.11% lower than the industry
& is -43.79% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EXEL
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.94%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -55.47% below industry average
Classification:
EXEL, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.37
Statistical test of Returns:
EXEL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.96%
Weekly Volatility:
6.62%
Monthly Volatility:
13.25%
Yearly Volatility:
45.90%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.93%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -34.73% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.04%
Weekly VaR:
-13.50%
Monthly VaR:
-27.00%
How Much Can the price of
EXEL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-93.54%
This translates to price declining to:
$13.73
This translates to price declining to:
$1.16
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EXEL is a 90.57% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 63.26% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -37.69% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EXEL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.66
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.724
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.023
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.648
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.711
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.621
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.089
Beta is -39.50% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -42.77% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.27%
Sustainable growth rate is -84.23% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.036
Alpha is -74.85% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 227% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EXEL
Equity cost of capital:
0.077
Equity cost of capital is -30.57% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.53%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.84%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.84%
WACC is -16.50% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.73
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.51
Annual revenue growth rate is -89.74% below industry average
EPS:
$0.92
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-12.10%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -221.20% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.37
-
-
Debt per share
$0.16
EBITDA per share
$1.24
Valuation Analysis Today of
EXEL
P/E Ratio:
21.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
138.24
P/E ratio is -84.63% lower than main peers & is -76.31% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $82.55
EXEL is -78.30% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.79
Price to sales ratio is -90.64% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.51
Price to free cash flow: 13.10
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-68.37%
Net income growth rate is -196.87% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
2.21%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-29.32%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.91%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-25.34%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -95.47% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
218.5
Interest coverage ratio is -284.64% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.45%
Annual debt growth is -97% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.424
Statistical significance of correlation:
EXEL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 24.58% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.035
Kurtosis
10.867
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.317
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EXEL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
386%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
24.63%
Operating profit margin is -105.74% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
386%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.86%
Effective tax rate is 283.18% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.99%
Return on equity (ROE) is -122.66% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.23%
Return on assets (ROA) is -155.04% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
6.37
Current ratio is -21.25% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-48.8
Cash conversion cycle is -109.15% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.63%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.6M
Each employee generates -1% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
417.3K
Each employee generates 8% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
312.4K
Each employee generates 144% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
149.0K
Each employee generates 1% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
850.5K
Each employee generates 1% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 26.62%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -842.13% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
EXEL
ROIVANT SCIENCES LTD. (XNAS:ROIV)
SHOCKWAVE MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:SWAV)
HUTCHMED (CHINA) LIMITED (XNAS:HCM)
CureVac NV (XNAS:CVAC)
ARENA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ARNA)
ARROWHEAD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ARWR)
INTEGRA LIFESCIENCES HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:IART)
PT INOCYCLE TECHNOLOGY GROUP Tbk (XIDX:INOV)
BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORPORATION (XNAS:BPMC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�21%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/1/22
Revenue:
1.52B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
52.88M
1.47B
691.10M
-
402.23M
-
-
1.09B
6.81M
1.82M
14.89M
398.11M
374.52M
298.04M
381.40M
83.36M
298.04M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.49M
Differed Income Tax :
15.32M
Stock Based Compensation :
19.76M
Change in Working Capital :
36.61M
Accounts Receivables:
91.79M
Other Working Capital:
- 1169.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.97M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
147.72M
Investments in PP&E:
- 5609.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 336545.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/1/22
2022
Q1
723.27M
847.06M
1.57B
190.61M
28.47M
53.33M
1.84B
106.17M
63.68M
-
404.54M
98.00M
138.99M
811.38M
-
2.65B
17.29M
-
-
-
271.79M
289.08M
50.64M
12.52M
71.19M
-
360.27M
320.00K
- 147934.00K
- 6665.0K
2.45B
April 1, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.15B
2.29B
2.65B
1.25B
50.64M
- 672633.0K
267.62M
-
- 74539.00K
-
-
-
-
205.00K
205.00K
-
73.39M
737.28M
663.89M
147.72M
- 5609.00K
142.11M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EXEL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.79
$45.88
$47.91
$50.03
$52.25