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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Exact Sciences Corporation (XNAS:EXAS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EXAS
Name:
EXACT SCIENCES CORPORATION (XNAS:EXAS)
Sector:
- 207377.00K
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. Kevin Conroy
Total Employees:
6,420
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -147.82% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EXACT SCIENCES CORPORATION(EXAS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
36.09
One Month Price Target:
$36.37
Six Month Price Target :
$37.74
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$39.4
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$36.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$33.01
This week:
$29.21
This month :
$22.33
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.26B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
176.96M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
32.48%
-23.2%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$50.38
$43.92
$21.80
$28.26
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$41.82
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.44
$30.35
$31.74
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EXAS
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.22%
Comparison:
EXAS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -148.37% lower than the industry
& is -153.44% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EXAS
Daily returns:
-0.04%
Weekly returns:
-0.21%
Monthly returns:
-0.83%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -135.65% below industry average
Classification:
EXAS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.57
Statistical test of Returns:
EXAS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.13%
Weekly Volatility:
9.24%
Monthly Volatility:
18.47%
Yearly Volatility:
64.00%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.12%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -72.93% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.53%
Weekly VaR:
-19.06%
Monthly VaR:
-38.13%
How Much Can the price of
EXAS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-34%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.75
This translates to price declining to:
$5.41
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EXAS is a 169.10% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 130.53% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.00% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EXAS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.36
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.794
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.123
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.793
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.24
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.965
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.855
Beta is 59.43% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is 15.37% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.224
Alpha is -234.56% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1428% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EXAS
Equity cost of capital:
0.125
Equity cost of capital is 11.06% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.26%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.53%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.42%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.42%
WACC is -7.00% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.46
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.96
Annual revenue growth rate is 49.33% above the industry average
EPS:
-$4.32
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
75.85%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 182.57% higher than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$13.35
EBITDA per share
-$3.13
Valuation Analysis Today of
EXAS
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
80.04
-
-
EXAS is -122.47% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.45
Price to sales ratio is -63.70% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.96
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
142.54%
Net income growth rate is -162.36% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
72.50%
Net debt to equity ratio:
67.28%
Debt to assets ratio:
36.40%
Net debt to assets ratio:
33.78%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -25.10% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-43.52
Interest coverage ratio is 55.14% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
37.50%
Annual debt growth is -64% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.47
Statistical significance of correlation:
EXAS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is -3.66% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.051
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.122
Kurtosis
10.537
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.123
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EXAS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
296%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-39.54%
Operating profit margin is -64.85% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
296%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.81%
Effective tax rate is -95.78% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-22.88%
Return on equity (ROE) is -208.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-11.48%
Return on assets (ROA) is -95.74% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
2.53
Current ratio is -49.16% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
11.4
Cash conversion cycle is -77.08% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-7.04%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
288.4K
Each employee generates -23% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 86.4K
Each employee generates -388% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 116.1K
Each employee generates -826% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 32.3K
Each employee generates 1385% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
821.7K
Each employee generates 1385% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -30.40%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1588.23% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
EXAS
DENTSPLY SIRONA INC. (XNAS:XRAY)
MASIMO CORPORATION (XNAS:MASI)
10X GENOMICS, INC. (XNAS:TXG)
REPLIGEN CORPORATION (XNAS:RGEN)
BRUKER CORPORATION (XNAS:BRKR)
HENRY SCHEIN, INC. (XNAS:HSIC)
XLRN
Grifols SA (XNAS:GRFS)
BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC. (XNAS:BMRN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�13%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.85B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
482.80M
1.37B
372.33M
703.30M
1.61B
907.94M
96.47M
2.08B
-
12.74M
184.30M
- 554453.00K
- 732124.00K
- 745398.00K
- 751489.00K
- 6091.00K
- 745398.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
47.65M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1912.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
52.44M
Change in Working Capital :
- 76003.00K
Accounts Receivables:
11.02M
Other Working Capital:
- 7834.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 14990.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 173754.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 33623.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 1172.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 70267.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
189.78M
627.20M
816.98M
205.63M
112.96M
79.58M
1.22B
792.99M
2.34B
2.07B
-
-
77.48M
5.28B
-
6.49B
66.47M
19.71M
-
-
394.77M
480.95M
2.36B
389.06M
2.75B
-
3.23B
1.76M
- 2822457.00K
- 6647.0K
6.09B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.56B
3.26B
6.49B
-
2.38B
2.2B
150.63M
- 7.00K
45.56M
-
-
-
-
2.74M
2.74M
- 237.00K
- 125695.00K
190.07M
315.77M
- 173754.00K
- 33623.00K
- 207377.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EXAS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$39.52
$43.14
$47.09
$51.41
$56.12