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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Evolus, Inc. (XNAS:EOLS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EOLS
Name:
EVOLUS, INC. (XNAS:EOLS)
Sector:
- 38460.00K
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
CEO:
Mr. David Moatazedi
Total Employees:
174
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -1608.86% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EVOLUS, INC.(EOLS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�SPECIALTY & GENERIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
9.06
One Month Price Target:
$9.16
Six Month Price Target :
$9.67
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$8.98
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.16
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$7.97
This week:
$6.63
This month :
$4.2
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
504.85M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
56.09M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
71.65%
-28.83%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.10
$11.78
$4.02
$6.34
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$11.03
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.54
$7.08
$7.58
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EOLS
Sharpe Ratio:
1.95%
Comparison:
EOLS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 114.09% higher than the industry
& is -14.40% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EOLS
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.62%
Monthly returns:
2.48%
Yearly returns:
14.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 109.44% above industry average
Classification:
EOLS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
EOLS has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.90%
Weekly Volatility:
13.19%
Monthly Volatility:
26.38%
Yearly Volatility:
91.37%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.53%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -40.16% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.99%
Weekly VaR:
-26.81%
Monthly VaR:
-53.62%
How Much Can the price of
EOLS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-46%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.89
This translates to price declining to:
$1.36
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EOLS is a 278.43% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 224.20% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 56.86% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EOLS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.00
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.213
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.716
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.959
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.035
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.846
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.829
Beta is 141.69% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.054
Beta is 90.21% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.129
Alpha is 235.64% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 819% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EOLS
Equity cost of capital:
0.169
Equity cost of capital is 62.80% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.07%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.37%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.67%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.67%
WACC is 58.25% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.16
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.56
-
EPS:
-$1.30
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-33.46%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -242.58% lower than the Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.31
EBITDA per share
-$0.86
Valuation Analysis Today of
EOLS
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.54
-
-
EOLS is -117.44% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.19
Price to sales ratio is -40.84% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.56
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-51.03%
Net income growth rate is -90.69% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
109.13%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-47.59%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.26%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-14.50%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -35.47% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-19.11
Interest coverage ratio is -374.99% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-46.88%
Annual debt growth is -812% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.316
Statistical significance of correlation:
EOLS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.408
Stock price is -22.64% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.408
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.039
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.134
Kurtosis
32.936
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.316
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EOLS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
229%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-55.93%
Operating profit margin is 66.33% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
229%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.01%
Effective tax rate is -99.95% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-105.00%
Return on equity (ROE) is 955.55% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-32.00%
Return on assets (ROA) is 757.59% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
3.51
Current ratio is 6.59% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
6.2
Cash conversion cycle is -95.87% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-4.19%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
697.4K
Each employee generates -17% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 276.7K
Each employee generates -392% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 405.8K
Each employee generates -495% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 221.0K
Each employee generates 286% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
446.7K
Each employee generates 286% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 19.86%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 202.56% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
EOLS
SUMMIT THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:SMMT)
89BIO, INC. (XNAS:ETNB)
SPECTRUM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:SPPI)
AVADEL PHARMACEUTICALS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:AVDL)
Corner Growth Acquisition Corp (XNAS:COOL)
BIOMEA FUSION, INC. (XNAS:BMEA)
VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:VTGN)
VERASTEM, INC. (XNAS:VSTM)
NEOLEUKIN THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:NLTX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�17%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
121.34M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
51.83M
69.51M
1.69M
-
124.88M
-
22.59M
149.16M
1.00K
2.52M
19.96M
- 48139.00K
- 67867.00K
- 70609.00K
- 70717.00K
- 5.00K
- 70609.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.11M
Differed Income Tax :
- 17.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.96M
Change in Working Capital :
- 11791.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 2608.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 12956.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 38199.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 12.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
106.67M
-
106.67M
16.80M
3.62M
15.84M
142.93M
3.84M
21.21M
50.03M
-
-
2.65M
77.73M
-
220.66M
7.57M
1.28M
-
4.99M
26.86M
40.70M
73.39M
39.30M
112.71M
-
153.41M
1.00K
- 440383.00K
- 103.0K
507.73M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
200.99M
67.25M
220.66M
-
74.67M
- 32001.0K
-
- 249.00K
- 261.00K
-
-
-
-
- 1022.00K
- 1022.00K
- 103.00K
- 39585.00K
106.67M
146.26M
- 38199.00K
- 261.00K
- 38460.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EOLS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$10.33
$5.65
$6.41
$7.28
$8.26