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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Evo Payments, Inc. (XNAS:EVOP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EVOP
Name:
EVO PAYMENTS, INC. (XNAS:EVOP)
Sector:
22.21M
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. James Kelly
Total Employees:
2,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 367.00% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EVO PAYMENTS, INC.(EVOP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
33.3
One Month Price Target:
$33.54
Six Month Price Target :
$34.75
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$36.21
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$33.14
Price Upper limit ($) :
$33.52
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$31.09
This week:
$28.36
This month :
$23.41
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.72B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
51.74M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.3%
-21.44%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.56
$38.83
$23.04
$27.77
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$37.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.28
$29.30
$30.32
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EVOP
Sharpe Ratio:
2.48%
Comparison:
EVOP, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 51.86% higher than the industry
& ratio is 8.93% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EVOP
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.45%
Monthly returns:
1.80%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 50.54% above industry average
Classification:
EVOP, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.75
Statistical test of Returns:
EVOP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.28%
Weekly Volatility:
7.33%
Monthly Volatility:
14.66%
Yearly Volatility:
50.77%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.08%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -97.58% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.64%
Weekly VaR:
-14.85%
Monthly VaR:
-29.70%
How Much Can the price of
EVOP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.90
This translates to price declining to:
$5.00
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EVOP is a 109.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 79.57% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.64% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EVOP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.952
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.346
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
2.977
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.666
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.872
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.014
Beta is 28.02% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is 16.81% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.096
Alpha is 165.56% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 612% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EVOP
Equity cost of capital:
0.120
Equity cost of capital is 11.89% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
27.61%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.40%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.68%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.68%
WACC is 16.71% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.00
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
8.29
Annual revenue growth rate is -209.19% below industry average
EPS:
$0.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-54.09%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -279.54% lower than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.35
-
-
Debt per share
$11.58
EBITDA per share
$2.65
Valuation Analysis Today of
EVOP
P/E Ratio:
530.51
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
130.29
P/E ratio is 307.18% higher than main peers & is 713.22% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $2.61
EVOP is 1176.14% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.33
Price to sales ratio is -69.68% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
8.29
Price to free cash flow: 24.60
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-113.63%
Net income growth rate is -101.34% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-102.21%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-34.95%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.17%
Net debt to assets ratio:
11.34%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.43% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.44
Interest coverage ratio is -103.05% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.33%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.79%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.444
Statistical significance of correlation:
EVOP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -7.36% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.004
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.008
Kurtosis
11.849
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.207
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EVOP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
338%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.56%
Operating profit margin is -222.67% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
338%
Effective Tax Rate:
44.84%
Effective tax rate is 43.13% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-2.06%
Return on equity (ROE) is -101.93% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.67%
Return on assets (ROA) is -117.66% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.33
Current ratio is -42.80% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-1.9
Cash conversion cycle is -101.71% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
57.98%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
225.0K
Each employee generates -43% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
59.7K
Each employee generates -9% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
5.3K
Each employee generates -75% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
9.7K
Each employee generates -51% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
425.0K
Each employee generates -51% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EVOP
CAMTEK LTD (XNAS:CAMT)
UPLAND SOFTWARE, INC. (XNAS:UPLD)
FORMULA SYSTEMS (1985) LTD (XNAS:FORTY)
QADA
AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:ACLS)
EPLUS INC. (XNAS:PLUS)
FARO TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:FARO)
MESA LABORATORIES, INC. (XNAS:MLAB)
Paya Holdings Inc. (XNAS:PAYA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
517.39M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
80.65M
436.74M
-
-
278.43M
-
82.97M
361.41M
2.23M
21.32M
82.97M
137.24M
75.33M
12.08M
46.53M
20.87M
12.08M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
20.51M
Differed Income Tax :
1.10M
Stock Based Compensation :
7.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1088.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 820.00K
Other Working Capital:
7.09M
Other Non-Cash Items:
172.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
32.85M
Investments in PP&E:
- 8157.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
422.49M
-
422.49M
36.13M
5.70M
364.19M
828.51M
109.35M
384.91M
197.53M
26.01M
239.30M
20.41M
977.51M
-
1.81B
8.99M
28.26M
-
-
585.00M
622.25M
599.07M
353.57M
975.95M
-
1.60B
5.00K
- 582926.00K
- 5658.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
442.06M
- 586100.00K
1.01B
-
627.33M
204.8M
-
- 2483.00K
- 10640.00K
- 4796.00K
-
- 2659.00K
-
- 1224.00K
- 8679.00K
- 1399.00K
12.14M
422.75M
410.62M
32.85M
- 10640.00K
22.21M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EVOP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$25.66
$27.90
$30.34
$32.99
$35.87