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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Everquote, Inc. (XNAS:EVER) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EVER
Name:
EVERQUOTE, INC. (XNAS:EVER)
Sector:
- 4526.00K
Industry:
Internet Content & Information
CEO:
Mr. Seth Birnbaum
Total Employees:
671
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EVERQUOTE, INC.(EVER) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTERNET CONTENT & INFORMATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
8.54
One Month Price Target:
$8.6
Six Month Price Target :
$8.89
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$9.25
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$8.47
Price Upper limit ($) :
$8.6
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$7.74
This week:
$6.76
This month :
$4.98
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
272.04M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
31.71M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.53%
-28.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.24
$10.58
$4.84
$6.50
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$10.04
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.68
$7.04
$7.40
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EVER
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.38%
Comparison:
EVER, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -7708.89% lower than the industry
& is -204.41% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EVER
Daily returns:
-0.10%
Weekly returns:
-0.49%
Monthly returns:
-1.96%
Yearly returns:
0.13%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -17619.35% below industry average
Classification:
EVER, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.04
Statistical test of Returns:
EVER has yielded a lower return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.49%
Weekly Volatility:
10.05%
Monthly Volatility:
20.10%
Yearly Volatility:
69.63%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.89%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -35.65% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.33%
Weekly VaR:
-20.86%
Monthly VaR:
-41.72%
How Much Can the price of
EVER
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.29
This translates to price declining to:
$1.28
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EVER is a 194.46% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 152.26% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 9.74% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EVER
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.23
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.692
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.978
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.761
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.627
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.967
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
23.97
Beta is -94.87% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.399
Beta is -12.14% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.351
Alpha is 178.78% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2235% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EVER
Equity cost of capital:
0.116
Equity cost of capital is -9.14% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.16%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.10%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.08%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.08%
WACC is 5.12% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.42
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.64
Annual revenue growth rate is -71.55% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.72
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
33.75%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 34.82% higher than the Internet Content & Information industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
-$0.58
Valuation Analysis Today of
EVER
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
52
-
-
EVER is -131.28% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.64
Price to sales ratio is -87.53% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.64
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 138.73% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-18.55%
Net income growth rate is -76.55% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
68.70%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-37.09%
Debt to assets ratio:
40.72%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-22.28%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -6.69% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-2305.13
Interest coverage ratio is -19171.02% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
53.98%
Annual debt growth is -87% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.253
Statistical significance of correlation:
EVER has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.473
Stock price is -46.48% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.473
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.058
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.151
Kurtosis
4.738
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.334
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EVER
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
377%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-5.60%
Operating profit margin is -1092.50% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
377%
Effective Tax Rate:
10.52%
Effective tax rate is -18.16% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-20.84%
Return on equity (ROE) is 141.34% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-12.52%
Return on assets (ROA) is -905.81% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.96
Current ratio is -45.28% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-420
Cash conversion cycle is -721.12% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-35.27%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
633.9K
Each employee generates -29% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 27.5K
Each employee generates -126% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 31.8K
Each employee generates -172% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 6.7K
Each employee generates -107% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -107% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 20.46%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -447.89% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
EVER
FT:Gold Strat Target Inc (BATS:IGLD)
ORBCOMM INC. (XLON:0A7Z)
THRYV HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:THRY)
UXIN LIMITED (XNAS:UXIN)
PARTNER COMMUNICATIONS COMPANY LTD. (XNAS:PTNR)
ANTERIX INC. (XNAS:ATEX)
QUINSTREET, INC. (XNAS:QNST)
Scor SE (XPAR:SCR)
BOSTON OMAHA CORPORATION (XNYS:BOC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�13%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
425.37M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
23.98M
401.39M
35.36M
26.05M
389.62M
363.57M
-
424.97M
31.00K
8.00K
5.41M
- 18441.00K
- 23832.00K
- 21348.00K
- 23858.00K
- 2510.00K
- 21348.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.51M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
7.53M
Change in Working Capital :
- 6361.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 10973.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 112.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 810.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 3845.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 681.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
46.13M
-
46.13M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
170.53M
170.53M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
68.09M
68.09M
-
-
20.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
448.95M
102.44M
170.53M
-
8.13M
- 37997.0K
-
-
- 681.00K
-
15.00M
-
-
558.00K
15.56M
- 5.00K
11.03M
46.13M
35.10M
- 3845.00K
- 681.00K
- 4526.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EVER
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$9.28
$10.05
$10.87
$11.77
$12.74