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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Evercore Inc. (XNYS:EVR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EVR
Name:
EVERCORE INC. (XNYS:EVR)
Sector:
- 491711.00K
Industry:
Capital Markets
CEO:
Mr. Ralph Schlosstein
Total Employees:
1,950
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -82.09% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EVERCORE INC.(EVR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CAPITAL MARKETS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
93.29
One Month Price Target:
$94.06
Six Month Price Target :
$97.91
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$102.53
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$92.9
Price Upper limit ($) :
$93.82
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$87.8
This week:
$81.02
This month :
$68.76
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.94B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
41.80M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.71%
-15.44%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$118.74
$107.01
$67.84
$79.57
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$103.19
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$100.69
$83.35
$85.89
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EVR
Sharpe Ratio:
2.31%
Comparison:
EVR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -33.83% lower than the industry
& ratio is 1.45% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EVR
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.38%
Monthly returns:
1.52%
Yearly returns:
25.05%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -27.27% below industry average
Classification:
EVR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.47
Statistical test of Returns:
EVR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.90%
Weekly Volatility:
6.49%
Monthly Volatility:
12.97%
Yearly Volatility:
44.93%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.96%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.96% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.88%
Weekly VaR:
-13.15%
Monthly VaR:
-26.30%
How Much Can the price of
EVR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-91.10%
This translates to price declining to:
$72.41
This translates to price declining to:
$8.30
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EVR is a 85.62% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 59.02% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 5.57% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EVR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.47
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.939
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.328
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.108
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.991
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.97
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.03
Beta is 43.00% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.144
Beta is 28.76% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
53.26%
Sustainable growth rate is 132.07% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.050
Alpha is -64.62% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 317% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EVR
Equity cost of capital:
0.132
Equity cost of capital is 20.52% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.96%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.42%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.91%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.91%
WACC is 7.29% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$79.88
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.46
Annual revenue growth rate is -12.93% below industry average
EPS:
$17.70
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
31.92%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -39.19% lower than the Capital Markets industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$31.16
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 58.02%
Equity growth rate per share is -42.00% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$14.29
EBITDA per share
$25.15
Valuation Analysis Today of
EVR
P/E Ratio:
5.55
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.52
P/E ratio is -61.80% lower than main peers & is -72.25% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $353.89
EVR is -73.64% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $42.78
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $25.67
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.17
Price to sales ratio is -72.75% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.46
Price to free cash flow: 2.99
Price to free cash flow ratio is -84.98% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
101.80%
Net income growth rate is -184.23% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.52%
Dividend yeild: 2.96%
Previous Dividend: $0.72
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.72
Previous Dividend: $2.76
Expected next dividend best case: $0.76
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.68
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.63
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.25%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-26--$0.72
2021-11-24--$0.68
2021-05-27--$0.68
2022-02-24--$0.68
2021-08-26--$0.68
2021-02-25--$0.61
Dividend growth rate is -92.42% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
42.36%
Net debt to equity ratio:
18.32%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.33%
Net debt to assets ratio:
8.79%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -72.60% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
60.89
Interest coverage ratio is 19.24% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
59.05%
Annual debt growth is 168% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.718
Statistical significance of correlation:
EVR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.637
Stock price is 12.73% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.637
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.005
Kurtosis
8.795
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.014
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EVR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
22.20%
Effective tax rate is 11.73% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
53.46%
Return on equity (ROE) is 119.39% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
25.65%
Return on assets (ROA) is 367.56% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 24.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
15.59%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.7M
Each employee generates -7% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
539.1K
Each employee generates 91% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
386.6K
Each employee generates 126% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 252.2K
Each employee generates 986% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
859.8K
Each employee generates 986% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EVR
SNV-PD
CINTAS CORPORATION (XFRA:CIT)
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNYS:MTG)
ARES-PA
HAGERTY, INC. (XNYS:HGTY)
RLI Corp. (XNYS:RLI)
STERLING BANCORP (XNYS:STL)
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (XNYS:AVAL)
OWL ROCK CAPITAL CORPORATION (XNYS:ORCC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.34B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
1.97B
1.97B
-
-
-
-
17.27M
29.12M
1.05B
-
753.78M
1.13B
251.13M
753.78M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.22M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1942.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
117.52M
Change in Working Capital :
- 799360.00K
Accounts Receivables:
36.23M
Other Working Capital:
- 839996.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
13.25M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 486220.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 5491.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 626283.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
454.77M
1.10B
1.55B
337.40M
-
-
-
404.69M
126.82M
246.00K
1.14B
-
-
1.68B
4.62B
2.94B
32.44M
115.87M
16.52M
-
-
148.31M
597.27M
-
597.27M
1.80B
1.35B
795.00K
1.54B
- 14830.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.41B
2.76B
2.24B
713.13M
258.4M
1.34B
- 18027.00K
693.54M
-
-
- 283126.00K
- 41619.00K
- 4440.00K
- 329185.00K
- 1531.00K
- 123399.00K
463.89M
587.29M
- 486220.00K
- 5491.00K
- 491711.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EVR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$103.04
$199.20
$218.93
$240.60
$264.43