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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Everbridge, Inc. (XNAS:EVBG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EVBG
Name:
EVERBRIDGE, INC. (XNAS:EVBG)
Sector:
1.53M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. David Meredith
Total Employees:
1,893
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -156.86% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EVERBRIDGE, INC.(EVBG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
39.23
One Month Price Target:
$39.38
Six Month Price Target :
$40.12
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$41.02
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$38.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$39.54
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$35.5
This week:
$30.88
This month :
$22.53
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.49B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
39.73M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.11%
-45.39%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.57
$48.68
$21.89
$29.78
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$46.11
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.42
$32.33
$34.04
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EVBG
Sharpe Ratio:
0.06%
Comparison:
EVBG, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -94.14% lower than the industry
& is -97.52% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EVBG
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.23%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -72.30% below industry average
Classification:
EVBG, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.94
Statistical test of Returns:
EVBG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.64%
Weekly Volatility:
10.38%
Monthly Volatility:
20.75%
Yearly Volatility:
71.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.36%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -70.59% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.52%
Weekly VaR:
-21.28%
Monthly VaR:
-42.57%
How Much Can the price of
EVBG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.51
This translates to price declining to:
$5.88
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EVBG is a 200.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 157.39% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 29.09% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EVBG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.68
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.652
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.922
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.198
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.035
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.337
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.356
Beta is -49.98% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -49.21% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.050
Alpha is 113.62% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -321% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EVBG
Equity cost of capital:
0.078
Equity cost of capital is -36.61% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.28%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.79%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.99%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.99%
WACC is -43.32% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.73
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.07
Annual revenue growth rate is -23.82% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.39
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
16.53%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -39.58% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$20.38
EBITDA per share
-$0.29
Valuation Analysis Today of
EVBG
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
543.07
-
-
EVBG is -109.24% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.03
Price to sales ratio is -64.85% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.07
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 120.71% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
52.97%
Net income growth rate is -78.31% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
263.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
103.22%
Debt to assets ratio:
55.52%
Net debt to assets ratio:
21.78%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 1.20% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-0.37
Interest coverage ratio is -100.70% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
50.63%
Annual debt growth is -95% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.268
Statistical significance of correlation:
EVBG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -46.63% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.044
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.119
Kurtosis
21.015
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.092
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EVBG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
275%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-19.97%
Operating profit margin is 4.22% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
275%
Effective Tax Rate:
7.85%
Effective tax rate is -70.24% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-29.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is 128.78% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-6.31%
Return on assets (ROA) is 64.40% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.2x
Current Ratio:
2.08
Current ratio is -30.48% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
69
Cash conversion cycle is -27.20% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.61%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
204.2K
Each employee generates -41% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 6.1K
Each employee generates -156% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 48.6K
Each employee generates 179% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.8K
Each employee generates -110% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
427.8K
Each employee generates -110% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 30.61%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1902.12% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
EVBG
ALARM.COM HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ALRM)
SEMTECH CORPORATION (XNAS:SMTC)
CIRRUS LOGIC, INC. (XNAS:CRUS)
RAPID7, INC. (XNAS:RPD)
SABRE CORPORATION (XNAS:SABR)
APPFOLIO, INC. (XNAS:APPF)
SONOS, INC. (XNAS:SONO)
ACI WORLDWIDE, INC. (XNAS:ACIW)
Novanta Inc. (XNAS:NOVT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�25%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
386.60M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
120.79M
265.81M
87.13M
87.26M
255.88M
168.63M
-
343.01M
319.00K
30.69M
57.76M
- 11476.00K
- 77204.00K
- 92080.00K
- 99924.00K
- 7844.00K
- 92080.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
15.43M
Differed Income Tax :
- 6553.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.08M
Change in Working Capital :
6.53M
Accounts Receivables:
11.42M
Other Working Capital:
1.82M
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.28M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
7.70M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 47.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
492.05M
-
492.05M
109.48M
-
46.88M
648.42M
12.52M
525.26M
233.37M
-
-
38.73M
809.88M
-
1.46B
9.99M
8.00K
-
235.73M
65.63M
311.35M
809.69M
14.36M
839.21M
-
1.15B
40.00K
- 360023.00K
- 8262.0K
675.98M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
463.80M
307.74M
1.46B
-
809.70M
317.6M
-
- 6177.00K
- 6224.00K
-
-
-
-
1.13M
1.13M
- 356.00K
2.25M
495.01M
492.76M
7.70M
- 6177.00K
1.53M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EVBG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$41.15
$43.02
$44.99
$47.04
$49.18