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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Equity Bancshares, Inc. (XNAS:EQBK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EQBK
Name:
EQUITY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:EQBK)
Sector:
7.50M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Brad Elliott
Total Employees:
702
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -3358.32% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EQUITY BANCSHARES, INC.(EQBK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
30.69
One Month Price Target:
$30.82
Six Month Price Target :
$31.45
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$32.21
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$30.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$30.86
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$28.82
This week:
$26.51
This month :
$22.34
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
493.85M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
16.09M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.95%
-18.77%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.36
$35.38
$22.02
$26.00
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$34.09
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.24
$27.28
$28.14
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EQBK
Sharpe Ratio:
1.36%
Comparison:
EQBK, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 10.43% higher than the industry
& is -40.48% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EQBK
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.25%
Monthly returns:
0.99%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 8.58% above industry average
Classification:
EQBK, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.24
Statistical test of Returns:
EQBK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.99%
Weekly Volatility:
6.68%
Monthly Volatility:
13.36%
Yearly Volatility:
46.27%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -94.43% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.08%
Weekly VaR:
-13.60%
Monthly VaR:
-27.21%
How Much Can the price of
EQBK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-94.26%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.48
This translates to price declining to:
$1.76
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EQBK is a 92.04% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 64.52% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 4.55% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EQBK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.74
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.662
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.937
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.58
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.496
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.783
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.091
Beta is -32.65% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -23.73% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.52%
Sustainable growth rate is 26.14% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.037
Alpha is 215.68% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 233% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EQBK
Equity cost of capital:
0.082
Equity cost of capital is -16.06% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.46%
Before-tax cost of debt:
9.66%
After-tax cost of debt:
7.63%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.63%
WACC is -28.90% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.30
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.09
Annual revenue growth rate is -65.13% below industry average
EPS:
$3.37
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
27.88%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 131.94% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.94
-
-
Debt per share
$9.07
EBITDA per share
$5.45
Valuation Analysis Today of
EQBK
P/E Ratio:
9.36
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
33.37
P/E ratio is -71.94% lower than main peers & is -24.54% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $41.82
EQBK is -26.61% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $30.25
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.91
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.72
Price to sales ratio is -36.49% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.09
Price to free cash flow: 6.21
Price to free cash flow ratio is -70.44% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
33.55%
Net income growth rate is -39.08% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.55%
Dividend yeild: 1.04%
Previous Dividend: $0.08
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.08
Previous Dividend: $0.32
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/12/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 14/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.08
2021-12-30--$0.08
--$0.00
2022-03-30--$0.08
2021-09-29--$0.08
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
32.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
12.44%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.87%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.11%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.27% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.23
Interest coverage ratio is 651.18% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.99%
Annual debt growth is -727% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 38.94%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.411
Statistical significance of correlation:
EQBK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -17.92% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.042
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.073
Kurtosis
6.384
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.062
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EQBK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
17.56%
Effective tax rate is -18.52% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.74%
Return on equity (ROE) is -1.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.04%
Return on assets (ROA) is -54.67% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.52%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
259.0K
Each employee generates -32% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
125.0K
Each employee generates -45% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
75.6K
Each employee generates -47% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
10.7K
Each employee generates -87% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.2M
Each employee generates -87% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EQBK
CAPITAL CITY BANK GROUP, INC. (XNAS:CCBG)
BURGUNDY TECH ACQ UNT (XNAS:BTAQU)
BURGUNDY TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION CORPORATION (XNAS:BTAQ)
Nightdragon Acquisition Corp (XNAS:NDAC)
PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNYS:PNNT)
FIDUS INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNAS:FDUS)
ENTERPRISE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:EBTC)
THBR
APXT
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
181.82M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
75.68M
79.34M
3.66M
-
-
164.21M
14.10M
9.33M
87.78M
-
53.06M
64.35M
11.30M
53.06M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.43M
Differed Income Tax :
- 226.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
804.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 11424.00K
Accounts Receivables:
1.13M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
568.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
7.80M
Investments in PP&E:
- 309.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 153850.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
89.76M
1.35B
1.44B
16.92M
-
-
-
103.17M
54.47M
13.83M
1.35B
-
-
1.52B
6.60B
5.08B
35.42M
-
-
-
-
-
146.01M
-
146.01M
4.77B
4.63B
204.00K
102.63M
- 50012.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
452.02M
5.08B
2.71B
146.01M
56.2M
57.13M
- 68887.00K
- 165912.00K
- 93128.00K
-
- 12381.00K
- 1353.00K
95.07M
- 11796.00K
-
- 169904.00K
90.05M
259.95M
7.80M
- 309.00K
7.50M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EQBK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$32.37
$69.44
$72.87
$76.47
$80.25