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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Equitable Holdings, Inc (XNYS:EQH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EQH
Name:
EQUITABLE HOLDINGS, INC (XNYS:EQH)
Sector:
- 730000.00K
Industry:
Insurance�Diversified
CEO:
Mr. Mark Pearson
Total Employees:
7,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 218.50% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EQUITABLE HOLDINGS, INC(EQH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
29.36
One Month Price Target:
$29.6
Six Month Price Target :
$30.77
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$32.19
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.22
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.54
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$27.47
This week:
$25.14
This month :
$20.92
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
10.89B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
375.62M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.79%
-18.02%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.11
$34.08
$20.61
$24.64
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.77
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.91
$25.94
$26.81
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EQH
Sharpe Ratio:
2.16%
Comparison:
EQH, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -11.80% lower than the industry
& is -5.25% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EQH
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.39%
Monthly returns:
1.54%
Yearly returns:
19.61%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -5.47% below industry average
Classification:
EQH, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.73
Statistical test of Returns:
EQH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.17%
Weekly Volatility:
7.08%
Monthly Volatility:
14.16%
Yearly Volatility:
49.05%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -94.58% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.43%
Weekly VaR:
-14.37%
Monthly VaR:
-28.74%
How Much Can the price of
EQH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$22.16
This translates to price declining to:
$4.40
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EQH is a 102.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 73.76% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 3.24% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EQH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.43
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.96
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.358
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.965
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.054
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.105
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.121
Beta is 27.71% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.088
Beta is 31.57% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.056
Alpha is -38.05% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 355% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EQH
Equity cost of capital:
0.130
Equity cost of capital is 22.20% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.73%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.68%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.12%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.12%
WACC is 36.65% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$36.81
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.12
Annual revenue growth rate is -28.38% below industry average
EPS:
$3.81
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-29.31%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -646.97% lower than the Insurance�Diversified industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 223.12%
Equity growth rate per share is 456.81% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$10.77
EBITDA per share
$6.56
Valuation Analysis Today of
EQH
P/E Ratio:
3.64
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
112.21
P/E ratio is -96.75% lower than main peers & is -93.84% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $225.17
EQH is -86.96% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $41.12
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.68
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.8
Price to sales ratio is -71.95% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.12
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-132.63%
Net income growth rate is -99.51% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.35%
Dividend yeild: 2.52%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $0.74
Expected next dividend best case: $0.21
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.19
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.17
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.03%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/05/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 17/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 19/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-26--$0.20
2021-11-26--$0.18
2021-05-27--$0.18
2022-02-25--$0.18
2021-08-12--$0.18
2021-03-03--$0.17
Dividend growth rate is -73.60% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
50.84%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-1211.98%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.46%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-34.72%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.46% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.35
Interest coverage ratio is 556.01% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
15.67%
Annual debt growth is -1545% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.747
Statistical significance of correlation:
EQH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.59
Stock price is 26.57% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.59
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.028
Kurtosis
14.314
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.844
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EQH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
168%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
168%
Effective Tax Rate:
4.74%
Effective tax rate is -77.96% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
20.22%
Return on equity (ROE) is -208.99% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.58%
Return on assets (ROA) is -63.82% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
25.84
Current ratio is 10.10% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.36%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.8M
Each employee generates 70% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
315.9K
Each employee generates 44% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
206.2K
Each employee generates 47% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 93.6K
Each employee generates 902% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
747.9K
Each employee generates 902% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EQH
BROWN & BROWN, INC. (XNYS:BRO)
LOEWS CORPORATION (XNYS:L)
W. R. BERKLEY CORPORATION (XNYS:WRB)
apo MultiAsset Mandat Protect PB
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, INC. (XNYS:APO)
APO-PA
FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC. (XNYS:FNF)
LINCOLN NATIONAL CORPORATION (XNYS:LNC)
Markel Corporation (XNYS:MKL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�25%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
13.83B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.21B
6.35B
-
1.78B
1.78B
-
-
-
-
217.00M
524.00M
2.46B
-
1.61B
2.43B
115.00M
1.61B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
180.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
38.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1587000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 730000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 56000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
104.49B
3.09B
107.58B
-
-
- 3087000.00K
104.49B
-
-
4.72B
101.40B
1.11B
- 101402000.00K
5.83B
179.00B
277.66B
-
4.04B
-
-
-
4.04B
4.04B
259.70B
263.75B
-
267.79B
4.00M
9.44B
- 1787000.0K
302.00M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
8.24B
7.95B
275.74B
104.49B
8.09B
- 96401000.0K
-
- 115000.00K
- 171000.00K
-
-
- 279000.00K
- 70000.00K
1.79B
1.44B
- 11000.00K
525.00M
5.71B
5.19B
- 730000.00K
-
- 730000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EQH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$32.35
$107.57
$117.92
$129.27
$141.71