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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Eqt Corporation (XNYS:EQT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EQT
Name:
EQT CORPORATION (XNYS:EQT)
Sector:
728.94M
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. Toby Rice
Total Employees:
693
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -99.60% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EQT CORPORATION(EQT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
47.28
One Month Price Target:
$47.59
Six Month Price Target :
$49.12
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$50.97
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$47.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$47.78
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$43.25
This week:
$38.27
This month :
$29.27
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
16.81B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
369.96M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
37.32%
-18.66%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$65.93
$57.09
$28.63
$37.47
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$54.22
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$52.33
$40.32
$42.23
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EQT
Sharpe Ratio:
7.56%
Comparison:
EQT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 64.44% higher than the industry
& ratio is 231.54% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EQT
Daily returns:
0.33%
Weekly returns:
1.67%
Monthly returns:
6.69%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 30.77% above industry average
Classification:
EQT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.24
Statistical test of Returns:
EQT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.31%
Weekly Volatility:
9.64%
Monthly Volatility:
19.28%
Yearly Volatility:
66.79%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.10%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -4.93% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.52%
Weekly VaR:
-19.05%
Monthly VaR:
-38.10%
How Much Can the price of
EQT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$33.17
This translates to price declining to:
$7.09
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EQT is a 168.92% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 130.38% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -19.23% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EQT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.16
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.797
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.128
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.819
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.563
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.585
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.974
Beta is -41.23% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is -42.35% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.692
Alpha is 55.61% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4406% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EQT
Equity cost of capital:
0.111
Equity cost of capital is -34.47% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.84%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.46%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.89%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.89%
WACC is -29.40% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$15.04
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.13
Annual revenue growth rate is -171.04% below industry average
EPS:
-$8.19
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-9.25%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -128.70% lower than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.19
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -180.13% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$12.32
EBITDA per share
-$3.94
Valuation Analysis Today of
EQT
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.04
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
EQT is -113.71% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.14
Price to sales ratio is -36.13% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.13
Price to free cash flow: 14.84
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-62.38%
Net income growth rate is -108.78% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -1.76%
Dividend yeild: 0.66%
Previous Dividend: $0.13
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.13
Previous Dividend: $0.31
Expected next dividend best case: $0.25
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.00
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 105.56%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 19/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 20/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-10--$0.13
2020-02-13--$0.03
--$0.00
2022-02-11--$0.13
2019-11-07--$0.03
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is 155.10% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
55.64%
Net debt to equity ratio:
61.47%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.89%
Net debt to assets ratio:
23.07%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -60.78% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-3.87
Interest coverage ratio is -148.81% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 41.79%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.291
Statistical significance of correlation:
EQT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is -26.31% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.025
Kurtosis
8.773
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.079
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EQT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
1213%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-58.57%
Operating profit margin is 4156.98% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
1213%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.21%
Effective tax rate is 27.39% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-32.61%
Return on equity (ROE) is -483.10% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-12.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is -632.47% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
0.4
Current ratio is -80.08% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-414.8
Cash conversion cycle is -686.10% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-0.28%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
8.0M
Each employee generates 0% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 2105.0K
Each employee generates -186% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 3853.6K
Each employee generates -1021% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates -1241% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
27.1M
Each employee generates -1241% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EQT
Cognor Holding S.A. (XWAR:COG)
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION (XNAS:CHK)
PHILLIPS 66 PARTNERS COM UNT (XNYS:PSXP)
WESTERN GAS EQUITY PARTNERS COM UNT (XNYS:WES)
TEXAS PACIFIC LAND CORPORATION (XNYS:TPL)
OVINTIV INC. (XNYS:OVV)
PLAINS ALL AMERICAN PIPELINE UNT (XNAS:PAA)
MAGELLAN MIDSTREAM PARTNERS UNT (XNYS:MMP)
SASOL LIMITED (XNYS:SSL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�25%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.56B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.04B
4.52B
-
-
220.41M
35.69M
4.26B
4.48B
-
376.81M
1.73B
- 1458765.00K
- 3258086.00K
- 2670561.00K
- 3568968.00K
- 899872.00K
- 2670561.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
435.28M
Differed Income Tax :
- 473557.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
7.47M
Change in Working Capital :
132.71M
Accounts Receivables:
225.97M
Other Working Capital:
- 38673.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.43B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.02B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
16.91M
-
16.91M
1.21B
-
1.80B
3.03B
18.30B
-
-
-
-
492.79M
18.79B
-
21.81B
1.42B
493.82M
-
-
5.70B
7.61B
4.56B
1.01B
6.00B
-
13.61B
9.92B
- 1725279.00K
- 4548.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
5.52B
8.19B
21.80B
-
5.05B
5.0B
-
- 291172.00K
- 291172.00K
- 3271414.00K
-
- 216491.00K
- 47063.00K
2.71B
- 827097.00K
-
- 97050.00K
16.91M
113.96M
1.02B
- 292281.00K
728.94M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EQT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$51.22
$21.96
$23.68
$25.52
$27.51