_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Eog Resources, Inc. (XNYS:EOG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EOG
Name:
EOG RESOURCES, INC. (XNYS:EOG)
Sector:
- 181000.00K
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. William Thomas
Total Employees:
2,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -99.88% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EOG RESOURCES, INC.(EOG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
121.52
One Month Price Target:
$122.57
Six Month Price Target :
$127.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$134.11
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$120.94
Price Upper limit ($) :
$122.44
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$112.62
This week:
$101.61
This month :
$81.7
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
70.51B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
586.04M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.57%
-32.01%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$162.80
$143.65
$80.24
$99.39
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$137.42
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$133.34
$105.56
$109.70
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EOG
Sharpe Ratio:
3.57%
Comparison:
EOG, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -22.31% lower than the industry
& ratio is 56.63% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EOG
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.69%
Monthly returns:
2.77%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -45.83% below industry average
Classification:
EOG, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
EOG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.63%
Weekly Volatility:
8.13%
Monthly Volatility:
16.26%
Yearly Volatility:
56.31%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.60%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -28.39% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.33%
Weekly VaR:
-16.38%
Monthly VaR:
-32.76%
How Much Can the price of
EOG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$88.25
This translates to price declining to:
$18.23
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EOG is a 131.25% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 98.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -31.91% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EOG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.54
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.06
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.499
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.353
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.739
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.857
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.469
Beta is 4.99% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is -23.35% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.57%
Sustainable growth rate is -98.12% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.196
Alpha is -56.04% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1245% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EOG
Equity cost of capital:
0.137
Equity cost of capital is -19.01% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.03%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.36%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.66%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.66%
WACC is -13.14% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$38.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.31
Annual revenue growth rate is -80.93% below industry average
EPS:
$7.49
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
19.10%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -40.76% lower than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.47
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 508.08%
Equity growth rate per share is 307.14% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$6.51
EBITDA per share
$15.91
Valuation Analysis Today of
EOG
P/E Ratio:
12.47
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.13
P/E ratio is 23.14% higher than main peers & is -70.39% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $315.43
EOG is -61.47% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.18
Price to sales ratio is -35.38% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.31
Price to free cash flow: 18.78
Price to free cash flow ratio is -41.58% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
35.38%
Net income growth rate is -95.02% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 23.37%
Dividend yeild: 3.54%
Previous Dividend: $1.80
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.80
Previous Dividend: $4.30
Expected next dividend best case: $2.30
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.30
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.88
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 59.36%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$1.80
2022-03-14--$1.00
2021-12-14--$2.00
2022-04-13--$0.75
2022-01-13--$0.75
2021-10-14--$0.41
Dividend growth rate is 43.45% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
17.72%
Net debt to equity ratio:
6.10%
Debt to assets ratio:
10.02%
Net debt to assets ratio:
3.45%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -81.19% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
52.1
Interest coverage ratio is 556.91% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-3.35%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.26%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.496
Statistical significance of correlation:
EOG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is 25.85% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.055
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.116
Kurtosis
10.573
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.716
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EOG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
299%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
25.53%
Operating profit margin is -1956.00% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
299%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.12%
Effective tax rate is 6.71% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
20.32%
Return on equity (ROE) is 138.70% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.49%
Return on assets (ROA) is 399.72% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.35
Current ratio is -32.23% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-131.8
Cash conversion cycle is -286.20% below industry average
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.80%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
8.0M
Each employee generates 0% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
3.3M
Each employee generates 37% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
1.6M
Each employee generates 274% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 64.6K
Each employee generates -30% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
10.6M
Each employee generates -30% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EOG
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED (XNYS:CNQ)
CEO
Eni SpA (XNYS:E)
Schlumberger N.V. (XNYS:SLB)
PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES COMPANY (XNYS:PXD)
TC Energy Corporation (XNYS:TRP)
PBR-A
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION (XNYS:MPC)
Brazilian Petroleum Corporation - Petrobras (XNYS:PBR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�42%
Buy�46%
Hold�58%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
22.39B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.57B
16.81B
-
525.00M
5.14B
4.62B
2.01B
7.15B
-
179.00M
3.60B
9.33B
5.72B
4.38B
5.55B
1.17B
4.38B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
- 465000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
35.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 2544000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 878000.00K
Other Working Capital:
68.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.41B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
828.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1009000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
4.01B
-
4.01B
3.21B
586.00M
671.00M
8.48B
28.46B
-
-
-
13.00M
1.14B
29.62B
-
38.10B
2.66B
1.51B
1.13B
-
2.10B
6.26B
3.82B
2.19B
10.29B
-
16.56B
206.00M
15.28B
- 13000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
12.73B
21.54B
38.10B
-
5.32B
1.3B
-
53.00M
- 956000.00K
- 10000.00K
-
- 43000.00K
- 1023000.00K
4.00M
- 1072000.00K
-
- 1200000.00K
4.01B
5.21B
828.00M
- 1009000.00K
- 181000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EOG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$134.21
$148.12
$163.47
$180.41
$199.11