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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Enterprise Financial Services Corp (XNAS:EFSC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EFSC
Name:
ENTERPRISE FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP (XNAS:EFSC)
Sector:
49.88M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. James Lally
Total Employees:
805
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -178.85% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ENTERPRISE FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP(EFSC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
45.66
One Month Price Target:
$45.96
Six Month Price Target :
$47.46
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$49.27
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$45.46
Price Upper limit ($) :
$45.9
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$43.
This week:
$39.72
This month :
$33.78
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.69B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
37.22M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.75%
-14.57%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.99
$52.34
$33.33
$38.98
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$50.50
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$49.30
$40.80
$42.02
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EFSC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.13%
Comparison:
EFSC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -8.17% lower than the industry
& is -50.51% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EFSC
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.21%
Monthly returns:
0.82%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -9.76% below industry average
Classification:
EFSC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.87
Statistical test of Returns:
EFSC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.85%
Weekly Volatility:
6.38%
Monthly Volatility:
12.76%
Yearly Volatility:
44.19%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.67%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.56% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.82%
Weekly VaR:
-13.01%
Monthly VaR:
-26.01%
How Much Can the price of
EFSC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-90.12%
This translates to price declining to:
$35.37
This translates to price declining to:
$4.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EFSC is a 83.61% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 57.30% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -0.15% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EFSC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.18
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.729
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.031
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.157
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.571
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.926
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.72
Beta is 63.43% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 22.06% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.14%
Sustainable growth rate is -10.85% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.014
Alpha is -217.31% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -87% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EFSC
Equity cost of capital:
0.112
Equity cost of capital is 14.93% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.50%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.97
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.15
Annual revenue growth rate is -64.06% below industry average
EPS:
$4.15
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
2.73%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -77.26% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.47
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 51.06%
Equity growth rate per share is 31.86% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$5.74
Valuation Analysis Today of
EFSC
P/E Ratio:
11.1
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.18
P/E ratio is -26.87% lower than main peers & is -10.56% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $51.50
EFSC is -11.33% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $24.63
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.84
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.09
Price to sales ratio is 19.03% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.15
Price to free cash flow: 8.34
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-6.58%
Net income growth rate is -111.95% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.29%
Dividend yeild: 1.80%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.82
Expected next dividend best case: $0.23
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.19
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.65%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.22
2021-12-14--$0.20
2021-06-14--$0.18
2022-03-14--$0.21
2021-09-14--$0.19
2021-03-12--$0.18
Dividend growth rate is -88.75% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
769.84%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-17.15%
Debt to assets ratio:
95.14%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.84%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -42.86% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.44
Interest coverage ratio is 1039.48% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-19.70%
Annual debt growth is -6321% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.506
Statistical significance of correlation:
EFSC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 1.08% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.026
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.043
Kurtosis
5.564
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.372
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EFSC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.74%
Operating profit margin is -56.06% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Effective Tax Rate:
15.93%
Effective tax rate is -26.05% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.15%
Return on equity (ROE) is -14.88% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.09%
Return on assets (ROA) is -52.64% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
20.6x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.13%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
414.7K
Each employee generates 9% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
265.3K
Each employee generates 17% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
185.8K
Each employee generates 31% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
62.0K
Each employee generates -25% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
537.8K
Each employee generates -25% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EFSC
Pathward Financial, Inc. (XNAS:CASH)
LAKELAND FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:LKFN)
LEXINFINTECH HOLDINGS LTD. (XNAS:LX)
NBT BANCORP INC. (XNAS:NBTB)
WESTAMERICA BANCORPORATION (XNAS:WABC)
PALOMAR HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:PLMR)
FIRST BUSEY CORPORATION (XNAS:BUSE)
EAGLE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:EGBN)
THE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:TBBK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
333.84M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
125.70M
-
125.02M
125.02M
-
-
1.18M
403.76M
22.62M
10.74M
213.58M
-
149.59M
192.22M
30.63M
149.59M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.90M
Differed Income Tax :
5.25M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.69M
Change in Working Capital :
- 6645.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.23M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
49.88M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
252.71M
1.39B
1.65B
-
-
-
1.65B
46.90M
365.16M
20.86M
-
-
-
432.92M
12.49B
13.71B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
12.23B
12.23B
395.00K
523.14M
- 59260.0K
1.01B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.47B
13.71B
-
-
- 252706.0K
-
- 298289.00K
- 298289.00K
-
-
- 16974.00K
- 7915.00K
232.93M
208.04M
-
- 40369.00K
1.98B
2.02B
49.88M
-
49.88M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EFSC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$58.80
$63.45
$68.46
$73.87
$79.71