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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:EBTC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EBTC
Name:
ENTERPRISE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:EBTC)
Sector:
- 3265.00K
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. John Clancy
Total Employees:
536
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1214.71% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ENTERPRISE BANCORP, INC.(EBTC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
31.6
One Month Price Target:
$31.69
Six Month Price Target :
$32.13
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$32.67
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$31.43
Price Upper limit ($) :
$31.8
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$29.35
This week:
$26.58
This month :
$21.55
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
375.57M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
12.12M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
37.9%
-21.74%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.02
$37.25
$21.18
$25.95
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.69
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.67
$27.49
$28.53
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EBTC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.29%
Comparison:
EBTC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 5.36% higher than the industry
& is -43.22% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EBTC
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.08%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 18.74% above industry average
Classification:
EBTC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.5
Statistical test of Returns:
EBTC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.49%
Weekly Volatility:
7.80%
Monthly Volatility:
15.60%
Yearly Volatility:
54.03%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.21%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -36.66% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.11%
Weekly VaR:
-15.89%
Monthly VaR:
-31.79%
How Much Can the price of
EBTC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$22.91
This translates to price declining to:
$4.74
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EBTC is a 124.36% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 92.21% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 22.08% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EBTC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.50
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.476
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.673
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.415
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.833
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.372
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.917
Beta is -45.19% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -47.85% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.70%
Sustainable growth rate is 6.29% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.064
Alpha is 448.55% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 405% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EBTC
Equity cost of capital:
0.066
Equity cost of capital is -32.40% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.44%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.57%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.98%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.98%
WACC is -42.72% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.23
Annual revenue growth rate is -0.73% below industry average
EPS:
$3.48
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
6.47%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -46.19% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.15
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 10.27%
Equity growth rate per share is -73.47% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$7.12
EBITDA per share
$5.60
Valuation Analysis Today of
EBTC
P/E Ratio:
9.78
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.54
P/E ratio is -40.89% lower than main peers & is -21.22% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $43.18
EBTC is -26.82% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $54.91
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $19.99
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.39
Price to sales ratio is -44.14% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.23
Price to free cash flow: 7.62
Price to free cash flow ratio is -51.69% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
42.94%
Net income growth rate is -22.02% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.04%
Dividend yeild: 2.47%
Previous Dividend: $0.21
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.21
Previous Dividend: $0.78
Expected next dividend best case: $0.22
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.19
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.18
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.59%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 18/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 19/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-10--$0.21
2021-11-09--$0.19
2021-05-10--$0.19
2022-02-07--$0.21
2021-08-10--$0.19
2021-02-05--$0.19
Dividend growth rate is -89.01% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
27.79%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-110.58%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.94%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-7.71%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.84% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.39
Interest coverage ratio is 1153.29% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-8.30%
Annual debt growth is -2721% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.531
Statistical significance of correlation:
EBTC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 6.11% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.02
Kurtosis
28.589
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.211
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EBTC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.03%
Effective tax rate is 11.54% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.56%
Return on equity (ROE) is 13.66% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.95%
Return on assets (ROA) is -58.98% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.14%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
299.0K
Each employee generates -21% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
126.6K
Each employee generates -44% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
78.6K
Each employee generates -44% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 6.1K
Each employee generates -107% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.8M
Each employee generates -107% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EBTC
THBR
FIDUS INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNAS:FDUS)
CAPSTAR FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CSTR)
International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. (XNAS:IGIC)
FCAC
Nightdragon Acquisition Corp (XNAS:NDAC)
THCB
SIERRA BANCORP (XNAS:BSRR)
CNB FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:CCNE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
160.26M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
38.96M
-
81.28M
83.81M
2.53M
-
-
147.39M
6.54M
5.92M
67.88M
-
42.11M
55.43M
13.32M
42.11M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.73M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
478.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 15763.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 3265.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 66833.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
429.69M
-
429.69M
14.27M
-
-
-
70.05M
5.66M
-
910.01M
-
-
985.71M
5.44B
4.45B
746.00K
-
-
-
-
-
86.28M
-
86.28M
4.23B
4.14B
121.00K
249.58M
- 40300.0K
101.14M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
310.54M
4.45B
-
86.28M
- 343403.0K
32.72M
- 18921.00K
- 53039.00K
-
10.00K
-
- 2123.00K
51.53M
49.42M
-
- 6889.00K
429.69M
436.58M
- 3265.00K
-
- 3265.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EBTC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$32.83
$46.31
$47.87
$49.49
$51.16