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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Energy Fuels Inc. (XNYS:UUUU) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UUUU
Name:
Energy Fuels Inc. (XNYS:UUUU)
Sector:
- 10946.00K
Industry:
Uranium
CEO:
Mr. Mark Chalmers
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ENERGY FUELS INC.(UUUU) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND URANIUM INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
7.24
One Month Price Target:
$7.29
Six Month Price Target :
$7.54
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$7.83
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$7.2
Price Upper limit ($) :
$7.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.45
This week:
$5.48
This month :
$3.72
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
-
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.79%
-17.04%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.88
$9.17
$3.60
$5.31
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$8.62
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.25
$5.86
$6.23
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UUUU
Sharpe Ratio:
5.80%
Comparison:
UUUU, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -15.84% lower than the industry
& ratio is 154.45% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UUUU
Daily returns:
0.32%
Weekly returns:
1.62%
Monthly returns:
6.50%
Yearly returns:
96.05%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -18.82% below industry average
Classification:
UUUU, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
UUUU has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.45%
Weekly Volatility:
12.19%
Monthly Volatility:
24.37%
Yearly Volatility:
84.42%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
6.21%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 14.00% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.87%
Weekly VaR:
-24.30%
Monthly VaR:
-48.60%
How Much Can the price of
UUUU
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.40
This translates to price declining to:
$1.09
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UUUU is a 243.01% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 193.85% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.51% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UUUU
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.22
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.005
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.422
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.497
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.899
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.283
Beta is -4.73% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.678
Beta is -27.17% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.665
Alpha is -18.37% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4230% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UUUU
Equity cost of capital:
0.115
Equity cost of capital is -21.32% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
11.99%
After-tax cost of debt:
9.47%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
9.47%
WACC is -10.82% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.4
Annual revenue growth rate is 106.18% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-
Valuation Analysis Today of
UUUU
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
6.89
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.4
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-103.47%
Net income growth rate is -34.26% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.02%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-37.01%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.02%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-34.23%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.97% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
21.34
Interest coverage ratio is -106.59% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-38.13%
Annual debt growth is -43% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.478
Statistical significance of correlation:
UUUU has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.387
Stock price is 23.58% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.387
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.042
Kurtosis
1.299
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.614
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UUUU
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
34%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-637.85%
Operating profit margin is -28.97% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
34%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-0.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is -95.86% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.74%
Return on assets (ROA) is 67.87% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
28.3
Current ratio is 43.73% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
4449.5
Cash conversion cycle is 10170.49% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-37.81%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UUUU
Denison Mines Corp. (XNYS:DNN)
URANIUM ENERGY CORP. (XNYS:UEC)
NORTHERN OIL AND GAS, INC. (XNYS:NOG)
PINEDALE ENERGY LIMITED (XTSX:MCF.H)
RILEY EXPLORATION PERMIAN, INC. (XNYS:REPX)
NEXGEN ENERGY LTD. (XNYS:NXE)
GOLDEN PURSUIT RESOURCES LTD. (XTSX:GDP)
Ur-Energy Inc. (XNYS:URG)
GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. (XNYS:GTE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.77M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.71M
606.00K
-
25.64M
25.69M
53.00K
12.16M
37.85M
45.00K
47.00K
3.24M
1.00M
- 36791.00K
- 2280.00K
- 2372.00K
-
- 2280.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
862.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 2557.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.88M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 10548.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 398.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
105.17M
611.00K
105.78M
3.67M
29.71M
2.45M
141.62M
105.26M
-
-
35.64M
-
23.59M
164.49M
-
306.10M
2.91M
333.00K
-
-
1.76M
5.00M
59.00K
13.96M
14.02M
-
19.02M
690.42M
- 411000.00K
3.7M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
42.56M
283.13M
302.15M
36.25M
392.00K
- 104777.0K
-
-
- 398.00K
-
4.16M
-
-
- 574.00K
3.59M
19.00K
- 7337.00K
125.49M
132.82M
- 10548.00K
- 398.00K
- 10946.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UUUU
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$5.87
$6.36
$6.88
$7.44
$8.05