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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Enanta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XNAS:ENTA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ENTA
Name:
ENANTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ENTA)
Sector:
- 13634.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Jay Luly
Total Employees:
155
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -0.34% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ENANTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.(ENTA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
63.87
One Month Price Target:
$64.06
Six Month Price Target :
$65.03
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$66.19
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$63.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$64.25
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$59.69
This week:
$54.52
This month :
$45.17
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.27B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
20.72M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.51%
-24.01%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$83.28
$74.38
$44.46
$53.36
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$71.49
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$69.59
$56.23
$58.15
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ENTA
Sharpe Ratio:
1.33%
Comparison:
ENTA, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -31.78% lower than the industry
& is -41.80% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ENTA
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.03%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -51.03% below industry average
Classification:
ENTA, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.62
Statistical test of Returns:
ENTA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.21%
Weekly Volatility:
7.18%
Monthly Volatility:
14.37%
Yearly Volatility:
49.78%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.58%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 11.30% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.55%
Weekly VaR:
-14.64%
Monthly VaR:
-29.28%
How Much Can the price of
ENTA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$47.71
This translates to price declining to:
$9.58
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ENTA is a 106.66% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 77.05% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -32.42% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ENTA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.54
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.564
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.798
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.522
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.489
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.639
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.843
Beta is -35.87% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -53.07% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.055
Alpha is -61.22% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 350% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ENTA
Equity cost of capital:
0.069
Equity cost of capital is -37.93% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.62%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.42
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.44
Annual revenue growth rate is -109.63% below industry average
EPS:
-$5.52
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.77
EBITDA per share
-$6.14
Valuation Analysis Today of
ENTA
P/E Ratio:
593.11
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
37.05
P/E ratio is 1501.03% higher than main peers & is 561.01% higher than the industry
-
ENTA is -112.90% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
14.46
Price to sales ratio is -64.31% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.44
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-204.80%
Net income growth rate is -390.15% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
4.15%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-20.72%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.62%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-18.08%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -91.41% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-34.20%
Annual debt growth is -125% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.284
Statistical significance of correlation:
ENTA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -16.36% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.044
Kurtosis
7.927
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.486
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ENTA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-143.98%
Operating profit margin is -66.41% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
13.95%
Effective tax rate is 144.61% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-29.22%
Return on equity (ROE) is -49.03% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-25.50%
Return on assets (ROA) is 24.96% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
8.63
Current ratio is 6.60% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-5.40%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
590.7K
Each employee generates -63% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 821.4K
Each employee generates -313% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 724.7K
Each employee generates -666% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 88.0K
Each employee generates -160% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
733.1K
Each employee generates -160% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 27.32%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -861.36% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ENTA
Silverback Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:SBTX)
RADIUS HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:RDUS)
DERMTECH, INC. (XNAS:DMTK)
Apria Inc (XNAS:APR)
VANDA PHARMACEUTICALS INC. (XNAS:VNDA)
VAREX IMAGING CORPORATION (XNAS:VREX)
CNST
PHATHOM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:PHAT)
AXOGEN, INC. (XNAS:AXGN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
91.56M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
27.65M
186.58M
36.82M
36.82M
-
-
223.39M
-
-
3.23M
- 127314.00K
- 131830.00K
- 112330.00K
- 130545.00K
- 18215.00K
- 112330.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
780.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
6.06M
Change in Working Capital :
9.93M
Accounts Receivables:
- 4072.00K
Other Working Capital:
289.07M
Other Non-Cash Items:
72.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 13271.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 363.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 62902.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
99.07M
159.98M
259.05M
56.40M
-
11.51M
326.96M
24.27M
-
-
88.67M
-
700.00K
113.64M
-
440.59M
7.84M
3.47M
28.75M
-
26.58M
37.89M
15.96M
2.36M
18.32M
-
56.21M
205.00K
18.46M
- 1006.0K
366.72M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
223.39M
384.38M
440.59M
248.65M
19.43M
- 79641.0K
108.77M
-
45.50M
-
10.41M
-
-
- 777.00K
9.63M
-
41.86M
99.68M
57.81M
- 13271.00K
- 363.00K
- 13634.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ENTA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$66.40
$68.81
$71.31
$73.90
$76.58