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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Elevance Health, Inc. (XNYS:ELV) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ANTM
Name:
ELEVANCE HEALTH, INC. (XNYS:ELV)
Sector:
2.29B
Industry:
-
CEO:
Ms. Gail Boudreaux
Total Employees:
98,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ELEVANCE HEALTH, INC.(ELV) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND - INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
481.99
One Month Price Target:
$484.41
Six Month Price Target :
$496.51
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$511.02
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$480.5
Price Upper limit ($) :
$484.53
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$458.14
This week:
$428.65
This month :
$375.31
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
114.48B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
240.00M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.62%
-17.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$592.57
$541.11
$371.41
$422.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$524.36
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$513.38
$439.47
$450.60
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ANTM
Sharpe Ratio:
4.07%
Comparison:
ANTM, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
& ratio is 78.52% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ANTM
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.55%
Monthly returns:
2.18%
Yearly returns:
Comparison of returns:
Classification:
ANTM, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.62
Statistical test of Returns:
ANTM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.46%
Weekly Volatility:
5.51%
Monthly Volatility:
11.01%
Yearly Volatility:
38.16%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.11%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.04% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.95%
Weekly VaR:
-11.07%
Monthly VaR:
-22.13%
How Much Can the price of
ANTM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-76.67%
This translates to price declining to:
$393.69
This translates to price declining to:
$112.44
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ANTM is a 56.22% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 33.83% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ANTM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.90
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.687
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.972
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.629
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.71
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.899
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.751
Beta is 19.44% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.169
-
Alpha is 1075% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ANTM
Equity cost of capital:
0.093
Equity cost of capital is above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.52%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.47%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.74%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.74%
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$601.45
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.21
-
EPS:
$112.22
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$112.22
-
-
Debt per share
$82.85
EBITDA per share
$42.84
Valuation Analysis Today of
ANTM
P/E Ratio:
19.33
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.53
-
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $134.00
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $120.89
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.8
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.21
Price to free cash flow: 4.29
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.95%
Dividend yeild: 1.00%
Previous Dividend: $1.28
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.28
Previous Dividend: $4.82
Expected next dividend best case: $1.41
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.15
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.06
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.10%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$1.28
2021-12-02--$1.13
2021-06-09--$1.13
2022-03-09--$1.28
2021-09-09--$1.13
2021-03-09--$1.13
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
55.27%
Net debt to equity ratio:
47.52%
Debt to assets ratio:
19.79%
Net debt to assets ratio:
17.01%
-
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.74
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.07%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.656
Statistical significance of correlation:
ANTM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.037
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.053
Kurtosis
9.996
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.157
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ANTM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
22.93%
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.36%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.21%
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
-
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.80%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.5M
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
104.7K
-
Profit generated per employee:
63.6K
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
23.3K
-
Assets/Capital per employee
740.0K
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ANTM
GSK PLC (XNYS:GSK)
ZOETIS INC. (XNYS:ZTS)
STRYKER CORPORATION (XNYS:SYK)
CIGNA CORPORATION (XNYS:CI)
EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORPORATION (XNYS:EW)
CVS HEALTH CORPORATION (XNYS:CVS)
BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY (XNYS:BDX)
BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY (XNYS:BMY)
MEDTRONIC PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:MDT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�17%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
144.35B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
-
16.33B
-
-
-
-
807.00M
1.38B
10.28B
-
6.24B
8.08B
1.85B
6.24B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
358.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 92000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
50.00M
Change in Working Capital :
432.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
623.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.54B
Investments in PP&E:
- 254000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 61000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 5050000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
6.16B
31.58B
37.75B
14.66B
-
-
-
3.99B
24.25B
10.59B
33.84B
-
-
72.67B
173.15B
100.49B
20.21B
3.37B
-
1.21B
-
24.79B
19.88B
-
22.23B
61.90B
64.46B
2.00M
28.06B
- 1236000.0K
9.15B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
136.27B
35.98B
100.43B
65.43B
23.26B
17.1B
4.26B
- 469000.00K
- 1578000.00K
- 14000.00K
-
- 545000.00K
- 309000.00K
1.19B
322.00M
- 4000.00K
1.28B
6.16B
4.88B
2.54B
- 254000.00K
2.29B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ANTM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$383.27
$406.35
$430.83
$456.78
$484.30