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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ehealth, Inc. (XNAS:EHTH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EHTH
Name:
EHEALTH, INC. (XNAS:EHTH)
Sector:
42.85M
Industry:
Insurance Brokers
CEO:
Mr. Scott Flanders
Total Employees:
2,379
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 339.54% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EHEALTH, INC.(EHTH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE BROKERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
5.65
One Month Price Target:
$5.66
Six Month Price Target :
$5.71
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$5.78
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$5.59
Price Upper limit ($) :
$5.68
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.07
This week:
$4.34
This month :
$3.04
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
132.47M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
27.26M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.9%
-38.81%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.37
$7.17
$2.93
$4.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$6.78
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.52
$4.52
$4.78
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EHTH
Sharpe Ratio:
-5.93%
Comparison:
EHTH, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -355.44% lower than the industry
& is -360.22% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EHTH
Daily returns:
-0.28%
Weekly returns:
-1.41%
Monthly returns:
-5.64%
Yearly returns:
6.97%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -1069.59% below industry average
Classification:
EHTH, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.05
Statistical test of Returns:
EHTH has yielded a lower return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.90%
Weekly Volatility:
10.96%
Monthly Volatility:
21.91%
Yearly Volatility:
75.90%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.28%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -53.49% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.34%
Weekly VaR:
-23.13%
Monthly VaR:
-46.26%
How Much Can the price of
EHTH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-44%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.15
This translates to price declining to:
$0.85
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EHTH is a 226.51% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 179.72% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 91.74% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EHTH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.34
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.762
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.077
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.315
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.136
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.651
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.808
Beta is -57.68% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.675
Beta is -49.31% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.731
Alpha is 9049.84% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -4654% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EHTH
Equity cost of capital:
0.055
Equity cost of capital is -29.33% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.06%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.68
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.16
Annual revenue growth rate is -65.62% below industry average
EPS:
-$6.01
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$3.65
EBITDA per share
-$5.48
Valuation Analysis Today of
EHTH
P/E Ratio:
57.29
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.12
P/E ratio is 278.96% higher than main peers & is 5.25% higher than the industry
-
EHTH is -101.73% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.3
Price to sales ratio is -90.48% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.16
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-31301.46%
Net income growth rate is 1004.89% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
10.40%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-12.09%
Debt to assets ratio:
8.55%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-9.93%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -82.58% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-88.10%
Annual debt growth is -107% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.04%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.396
Statistical significance of correlation:
EHTH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.616
Stock price is -35.71% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.616
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.044
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.124
Kurtosis
11.634
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.569
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EHTH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
400%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-32.35%
Operating profit margin is -518.65% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
400%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.45%
Effective tax rate is 15.11% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-14.26%
Return on equity (ROE) is -209.40% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-11.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is -311.98% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
7.44
Current ratio is 222.88% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-2515.6
Cash conversion cycle is -631.11% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-3.88%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
214.1K
Each employee generates -17% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 62.8K
Each employee generates -267% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 57.3K
Each employee generates -379% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
18.0K
Each employee generates 268% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
299.8K
Each employee generates 268% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EHTH
PRA GROUP, INC. (XNAS:PRAA)
NORTHWEST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:NWBI)
CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:CFFN)
EAGLE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:EGBN)
PALOMAR HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:PLMR)
WESTAMERICA BANCORPORATION (XNAS:WABC)
NBT BANCORP INC. (XNAS:NBTB)
HOPE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HOPE)
Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (XNAS:GGAL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
509.24M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
869.00K
508.37M
19.80M
72.63M
351.51M
278.88M
297.15M
668.46M
-
-
15.76M
- 149369.00K
- 164717.00K
- 136317.00K
- 165133.00K
- 28816.00K
- 136317.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.78M
Differed Income Tax :
- 8032.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
5.29M
Change in Working Capital :
77.61M
Accounts Receivables:
3.77M
Other Working Capital:
1.82M
Other Non-Cash Items:
215.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
47.11M
Investments in PP&E:
- 55.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 3938.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
220.56M
10.94M
231.50M
206.22M
-
11.83M
449.54M
47.21M
-
-
-
-
666.12M
713.32M
-
1.16B
8.20M
5.66M
-
-
46.54M
60.39M
99.40M
4.57M
146.74M
-
207.13M
39.00K
153.25M
421.0K
562.21M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
668.56M
955.74M
1.16B
-
105.05M
- 115509.0K
34.32M
- 4205.00K
26.12M
- 35.00K
-
- 508.00K
-
65.92M
65.37M
31.00K
138.64M
223.80M
85.17M
47.11M
- 4260.00K
42.85M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EHTH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$5.80
$5.93
$6.07
$6.21
$6.35