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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Edgio, Inc. (XNAS:EGIO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LLNW
Name:
EDGIO, INC. (XNAS:EGIO)
Sector:
- 23821.00K
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Robert Lento
Total Employees:
1,317
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 33.96% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EDGIO, INC.(EGIO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
3.52
One Month Price Target:
$3.54
Six Month Price Target :
$3.62
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$3.72
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$3.5
Price Upper limit ($) :
$3.55
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$3.2
This week:
$2.81
This month :
$2.11
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
749.22M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
219.71M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.04%
-31.98%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.99
$4.31
$2.05
$2.73
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$4.09
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.95
$2.94
$3.09
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LLNW
Sharpe Ratio:
1.68%
Comparison:
LLNW, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 2.53% higher than the industry
& is -26.46% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LLNW
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.66%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 38.29% above industry average
Classification:
LLNW, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.74
Statistical test of Returns:
LLNW has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.42%
Weekly Volatility:
9.87%
Monthly Volatility:
19.75%
Yearly Volatility:
68.41%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.91%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -34.07% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.99%
Weekly VaR:
-20.09%
Monthly VaR:
-40.19%
How Much Can the price of
LLNW
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-35%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.30
This translates to price declining to:
$0.53
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LLNW is a 183.65% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 143.01% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 32.54% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LLNW
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.85
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.797
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.128
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.428
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.895
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.932
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.125
Beta is -24.23% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is -23.33% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.109
Alpha is 201.31% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 694% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LLNW
Equity cost of capital:
0.090
Equity cost of capital is -16.50% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.51%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.97%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.13%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.13%
WACC is -14.27% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.02
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.72
Annual revenue growth rate is -103.32% below industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
45.36%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 50.57% higher than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.60
EBITDA per share
-$0.08
Valuation Analysis Today of
LLNW
P/E Ratio:
49.08
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
103.13
P/E ratio is -52.41% lower than main peers & is -24.76% lower than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.45
Price to sales ratio is -68.62% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.72
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-588.15%
Net income growth rate is -106.93% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
97.05%
Net debt to equity ratio:
78.24%
Debt to assets ratio:
42.62%
Net debt to assets ratio:
34.36%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -38.88% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-3.19
Interest coverage ratio is -98.49% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
28.86%
Annual debt growth is -73% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.313
Statistical significance of correlation:
LLNW has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -34.83% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.002
Kurtosis
8.373
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.292
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LLNW
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
115%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-18.07%
Operating profit margin is 52.23% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
115%
Effective Tax Rate:
-2.33%
Effective tax rate is -107.43% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-35.80%
Return on equity (ROE) is -133.54% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-15.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is 315.19% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
3.31
Current ratio is 42.34% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
43.9
Cash conversion cycle is -61.03% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-14.49%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
170.4K
Each employee generates -57% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 12.8K
Each employee generates -120% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 36.8K
Each employee generates -275% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 18.1K
Each employee generates -191% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
132.7K
Each employee generates -191% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -0.05%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -98.04% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
LLNW
RIMINI STREET, INC. (XNAS:RMNI)
ZIXI
Backblaze, Inc. (XNAS:BLZE)
OTONOMO TECHNOLOGIES LTD (XNAS:OTMO)
PRIORITY TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:PRTH)
LIVEVOX HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:LVOX)
LEGACY EJY, INC. (OTCM:ENJYQ)
CASA SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CASA)
Red Violet, Inc. (XNAS:RDVT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
224.39M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
158.72M
65.68M
25.12M
35.46M
63.00M
27.54M
3.29M
91.40M
116.00K
5.27M
25.20M
- 16827.00K
- 40543.00K
- 48404.00K
- 47303.00K
1.10M
- 48404.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.12M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
7.01M
Change in Working Capital :
- 13433.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 13095.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 911.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 18471.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 5350.00K
Net Acquisitions:
492.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 6839.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
27.18M
34.75M
61.93M
60.10M
-
11.05M
133.07M
40.86M
113.46M
13.83M
40.00K
1.82M
4.78M
174.79M
-
307.86M
15.60M
1.75M
215.00K
2.19M
20.62M
40.16M
131.20M
721.00K
132.51M
-
172.67M
138.00K
- 446189.00K
- 9004.0K
590.25M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
250.12M
135.19M
307.86M
34.79M
132.95M
105.8M
9.09M
-
- 2610.00K
-
-
-
-
6.70M
6.70M
- 363.00K
- 14743.00K
27.18M
41.92M
- 18471.00K
- 5350.00K
- 23821.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LLNW
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$2.79
$2.95
$3.12
$3.30
$3.49