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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Echostar Corporation (XNAS:SATS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SATS
Name:
ECHOSTAR CORPORATION (XNAS:SATS)
Sector:
- 12878.00K
Industry:
Communication Equipment
CEO:
Mr. Michael Dugan
Total Employees:
2,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -233.66% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ECHOSTAR CORPORATION(SATS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.73
One Month Price Target:
$17.8
Six Month Price Target :
$18.16
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.6
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.64
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.8
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$16.74
This week:
$15.53
This month :
$13.32
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.48B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
83.17M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.56%
-13.54%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.31
$20.26
$13.15
$15.20
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.59
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.16
$15.86
$16.30
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SATS
Sharpe Ratio:
-3.29%
Comparison:
SATS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -354.06% lower than the industry
& is -244.50% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SATS
Daily returns:
-0.08%
Weekly returns:
-0.40%
Monthly returns:
-1.58%
Yearly returns:
12.89%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -247.28% below industry average
Classification:
SATS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.16
Statistical test of Returns:
SATS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.67%
Weekly Volatility:
5.97%
Monthly Volatility:
11.94%
Yearly Volatility:
41.35%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.60%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.37% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.56%
Weekly VaR:
-12.44%
Monthly VaR:
-24.87%
How Much Can the price of
SATS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-86.16%
This translates to price declining to:
$13.67
This translates to price declining to:
$2.45
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SATS is a 75.54% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 50.38% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.76% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SATS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.73
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.604
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.854
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.59
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.458
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.585
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.342
Beta is -45.74% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.197
Beta is -39.17% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.26%
Sustainable growth rate is -90.67% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.271
Alpha is -1867.08% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1726% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SATS
Equity cost of capital:
0.081
Equity cost of capital is -28.30% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.60%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.63%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.63%
WACC is -18.40% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$24.10
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.41
Annual revenue growth rate is -76.51% below industry average
EPS:
$0.97
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.49
-
-
Debt per share
$19.63
EBITDA per share
$8.66
Valuation Analysis Today of
SATS
P/E Ratio:
24.59
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
90.45
P/E ratio is -72.81% lower than main peers & is -33.77% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $36.01
SATS is -50.76% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.74
Price to sales ratio is -67.88% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.41
Price to free cash flow: 7.11
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-295.91%
Net income growth rate is -164.90% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
47.38%
Net debt to equity ratio:
22.07%
Debt to assets ratio:
26.47%
Net debt to assets ratio:
12.33%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.17% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.5
Interest coverage ratio is -73.94% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-31.16%
Annual debt growth is 207% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.393
Statistical significance of correlation:
SATS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.552
Stock price is -28.81% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.552
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.043
Kurtosis
2.981
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.255
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SATS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
237%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.41%
Operating profit margin is 61.85% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
237%
Effective Tax Rate:
50.72%
Effective tax rate is 81.79% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
2.49%
Return on equity (ROE) is -92.83% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is -68.16% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
4.56
Current ratio is 105.05% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-17.5
Cash conversion cycle is -127.90% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.17%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
801.9K
Each employee generates 46% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
288.1K
Each employee generates 281% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
34.3K
Each employee generates 39% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 5.2K
Each employee generates 227% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.7M
Each employee generates 227% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 7.91%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -441.80% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SATS
SUPER MICRO COMPUTER, INC. (XNAS:SMCI)
Payoneer Global Inc. (XNAS:PAYO)
Arqit Quantum Inc (XNAS:ARQQ)
AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:ACLS)
CHICKEN SOUP FOR THE SOUL ENTERTAINMENT INC. (XNAS:CSSEN)
COMMSCOPE HOLDING COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:COMM)
Himax Technologies, Inc. (XNAS:HIMX)
NETSCOUT SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:NTCT)
EVERBRIDGE, INC. (XNAS:EVBG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.00B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
815.96M
1.19B
31.85M
-
465.76M
-
482.48M
980.08M
23.27M
75.82M
482.48M
720.35M
208.62M
85.79M
150.36M
76.26M
85.79M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
120.44M
Differed Income Tax :
25.54M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.86M
Change in Working Capital :
- 44723.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 12916.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 87703.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
104.35M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 7892.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 88578.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
889.20M
634.59M
1.52B
217.60M
110.00M
81.61M
1.93B
2.53B
535.39M
609.09M
350.32M
5.68M
209.15M
4.24B
-
6.17B
110.03M
17.03M
14.19M
138.20M
158.41M
423.67M
1.63B
124.45M
2.19B
-
2.61B
106.00K
747.90M
- 173280.0K
2.87B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.80B
3.45B
6.06B
984.91M
1.65B
760.7M
492.81M
- 117231.00K
279.11M
- 85.00K
-
- 33307.00K
-
923.00K
- 32469.00K
3.48M
354.48M
891.35M
536.87M
104.35M
- 117231.00K
- 12878.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SATS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.69
$41.46
$43.48
$45.61
$47.84