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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ebix, Inc. (XNAS:EBIX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EBIX
Name:
EBIX, INC. (XNAS:EBIX)
Sector:
- 6402.00K
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Robin Raina
Total Employees:
10,030
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -109.38% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF EBIX, INC.(EBIX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
24.68
One Month Price Target:
$25.04
Six Month Price Target :
$26.85
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.02
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$24.46
Price Upper limit ($) :
$24.96
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.69
This week:
$18.
This month :
$11.32
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
710.22M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
30.91M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
58.62%
-39.89%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.54
$32.16
$10.82
$17.20
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.09
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.73
$19.25
$20.63
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EBIX
Sharpe Ratio:
2.19%
Comparison:
EBIX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 127.17% higher than the industry
& is -3.93% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EBIX
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.70%
Monthly returns:
2.79%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 236.77% above industry average
Classification:
EBIX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.86
Statistical test of Returns:
EBIX has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.96%
Weekly Volatility:
13.34%
Monthly Volatility:
26.67%
Yearly Volatility:
92.39%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.13%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -81.04% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-12.11%
Weekly VaR:
-27.08%
Monthly VaR:
-54.15%
How Much Can the price of
EBIX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-46%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$13.26
This translates to price declining to:
$3.70
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EBIX is a 282.20% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 227.43% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 65.91% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EBIX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.62
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.088
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.539
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
2.592
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.855
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.114
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.938
Beta is 179.05% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is 95.98% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.99%
Sustainable growth rate is -67.87% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.124
Alpha is -624.63% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 788% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EBIX
Equity cost of capital:
0.211
Equity cost of capital is 71.40% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
20.88%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.62%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.23%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.23%
WACC is 59.06% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$32.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.08
Annual revenue growth rate is -13.32% below industry average
EPS:
$2.14
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-11.06%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -140.44% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.42
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 2.09%
Equity growth rate per share is 36.42% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.23
EBITDA per share
$4.51
Valuation Analysis Today of
EBIX
P/E Ratio:
10.93
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
313.08
P/E ratio is -96.51% lower than main peers & is -93.85% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $380.06
EBIX is -93.51% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $34.54
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $1.42
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.77
Price to sales ratio is -93.29% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.08
Price to free cash flow: 17.42
Price to free cash flow ratio is -82.78% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-25.00%
Net income growth rate is -110.24% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.52%
Dividend yeild: 1.22%
Previous Dividend: $0.08
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.08
Previous Dividend: $0.30
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 14/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 16/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.08
2021-11-30--$0.08
2021-06-01--$0.08
2022-03-03--$0.08
2021-09-02--$0.08
2021-03-01--$0.08
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.07%
Net debt to equity ratio:
87.91%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.46%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.30%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.17% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.2
Interest coverage ratio is -93.98% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-7.53%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 64.63%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.298
Statistical significance of correlation:
EBIX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -40.78% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.032
Kurtosis
23.751
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.766
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EBIX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
121%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.90%
Operating profit margin is -162.10% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
121%
Effective Tax Rate:
9.96%
Effective tax rate is -62.23% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.94%
Return on equity (ROE) is -176.00% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.22%
Return on assets (ROA) is -209.80% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0.42
Current ratio is -86.06% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
31.8
Cash conversion cycle is -66.46% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 39.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.47%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
98.8K
Each employee generates -71% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
13.9K
Each employee generates 29% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
6.6K
Each employee generates -138% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.6K
Each employee generates -92% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
121.7K
Each employee generates -92% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 13.46%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 780.58% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
EBIX
ADTRAN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ADTN)
AUDIOCODES LTD (XNAS:AUDC)
VDSI
CHUBK
CHUBA
INSEEGO CORP. (XNAS:INSG)
ONESPAN INC. (XNAS:OSPN)
TUCOWS INC. (XNAS:TCX)
PHOTRONICS, INC. (XNAS:PLAB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
991.14M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
695.88M
295.26M
40.73M
106.49M
120.86M
14.37M
15.74M
177.33M
137.00K
43.54M
22.89M
139.31M
117.93M
65.79M
71.12M
7.09M
65.79M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.01M
Differed Income Tax :
- 17583.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
964.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 1842.00K
Accounts Receivables:
901.00K
Other Working Capital:
8.37M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1174.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.57M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
75.94M
16.19M
92.14M
160.27M
-
87.16M
339.57M
71.59M
931.56M
84.03M
-
101.10M
32.17M
1.22B
-
1.56B
75.79M
650.65M
-
67.45M
19.58M
813.47M
7.11M
24.47M
41.29M
-
854.76M
3.07M
776.08M
- 133306.0K
15.99M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
873.20M
661.84M
1.52B
-
657.76M
581.8M
457.00K
- 11969.00K
- 11512.00K
- 12994.00K
-
- 34.00K
- 2318.00K
-
- 15346.00K
- 1088.00K
- 22379.00K
92.39M
114.76M
5.57M
- 11969.00K
- 6402.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EBIX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$29.17
$202.61
$238.24
$280.15
$329.42